2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:57 · Evan Staley 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:31: David Sills V 1 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick) — WVU win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:02: David Sills V 1 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick) — WVU win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:51: Blake Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal — KSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:34: Martell Pettaway run for 7 yds to the WVirg 30 — WVU win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:01: Tevin Bush 62 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick) — WVU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 9:26KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it16.0%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q1 5:21KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q1 3:23KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q1 2:12WVU 4th & 3 at KSU 44, up 7Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it84.4%52% to convertField goal83.8%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call84.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:06KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.9%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 6:57WVU 4th & 8 at KSU 34, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.3%34% to convertField goalTheir call83.2%−0.147% to makePunt82.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:02KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 0:57KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it10.9%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q3 10:51KSU 4th & 8 at WVU 8, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call3.8%90% to makePunt0.1%−3.6average punt
- Q3 2:08KSU 4th & 24 at WVU 40, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.17% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 10:42WVU 4th & 23 at WVU 27, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:49KSU 4th & 19 at WVU 34, down 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.111% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%47% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:28KSU 4th & 8 at WVU 40, down 29Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.1%34% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:46WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:31WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:02WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:01WVU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:39WVU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1INT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1087% → 87%
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
87.0%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 7 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+12
86.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 12 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+12
86.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 12 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.6%
Will Grier pass intercepted AJ Parker return for no gain to the KanSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 3:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:26
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4186% → 85%
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.6%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 5
50
+15
85.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 15 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
85.4%
Leddie Brown run for no gain to the KanSt 28 Leddie Brown fumbled, recovered by KanSt Jordan MittieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0715% → 16%
WVUDrive 5TD2 plays · 96 yds · 0:2384% → 86%
KSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1614% → 14%
WVUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5787% → 86%
Q1 2:12
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
86.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Duke Shelley at the KanSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3614% → 14%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
85.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 2 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+17
85.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 17 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
85.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Blaise Gammon for 9 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+14
85.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 14 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
85.6%
Andrew Hicks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 5:5885% → 85%
Q2 11:52
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
85.1%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 10 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
85.6%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 5 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+7
85.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 7 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
86.0%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-4
86.1%
Will Grier sacked by Jordan Mittie for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4815% → 15%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
84.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 9 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11TD9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2586% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2210% → 9%
Q2 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Andrew Hicks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD8 plays · 73 yds · 0:4591% → 97%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
90.8%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 12 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
91.1%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 8 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+11
91.3%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 11 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
91.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 17 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
91.4%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 23 yds to the KanSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG13 plays · 70 yds · 4:055% → 8%
WVUDrive 16TD5 plays · 77 yds · 1:3395% → 99%
KSUDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.1%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the KanSt 17 Justin Silmon fumbled, recovered by WVirg Reese DonahueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD4 plays · 17 yds · 1:0399% → 100%
Q3 8:03
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+9
98.7%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 9 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT14 plays · 47 yds · 5:250% → 0%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
99.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 35 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-8
99.5%
Skylar Thompson sacked by David Long Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Will Grier pass intercepted Johnathan Durham return for no gain to the WVirg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21FG9 plays · 18 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+5
99.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
99.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 20Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-1
99.9%
Alex Delton sacked by David Long Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 2 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
99.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-10
99.8%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23MISSED FG7 plays · 25 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 16 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
99.9%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 23 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-9
99.9%
Alex Delton sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24INT6 plays · 34 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
KSUDrive 25DOWNS11 plays · 42 yds · 3:370% → 0%
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+8
100.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 8 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
100.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 8 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Zach Reuter for 7 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-5
99.9%
Alex Delton sacked by Adam Hensley for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:31
David Sills V 1 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q2 0:02
David Sills V 1 Yd pass from Will Grier (Evan Staley Kick)
+4.2
FG · Q3 10:51
Blake Lynch 25 Yd Field Goal
-3.7