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SDAK

South Dakota 24 at Kansas State 27

KSU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreSDAK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:29 · Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Trystn Ducker, broken up by Kevion McGee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense−20.3Score differential−8.8Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:16: Blake Lynch 24 yd FG GOOD — SDAK win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:23: Austin Simmons run for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK) — SDAK win probability +2.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 7 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK) — SDAK win probability +8.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Alex Delton pass intercepted for a TD Alex Gray return for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK) — SDAK win probability +7.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:21: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 10 yds for a TD (A. Barnes Run For Two-point Conversion) — KSU win probability +26.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11SDAK made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00SDAK 4th & 1 at SDAK 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:30SDAK 4th & 10 at SDAK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:18SDAK 4th & 3 at KSU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:16KSU 4th & 7 at SDAK 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35KSU 4th & 5 at SDAK 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:29SDAK 4th & 3 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:26SDAK 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−1.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:32KSU 4th & 7 at SDAK 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:26SDAK 4th & 10 at SDAK 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:15KSU 4th & 14 at SDAK 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:04KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:55KSU 4th & 17 at KSU 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:00SDAK 4th & 7 at KSU 29, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−9.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:00KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:30SDAK 4th & 7 at SDAK 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−3.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:16KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 25, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−2.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:29SDAK 4th & 5 at KSU 32, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−2.9
    average punt
  20. Q3 1:06KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:12SDAK 4th & 4 at SDAK 47, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−1.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:29SDAK 4th & 25 at SDAK 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−10.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:15SDAK 4th & 8 at SDAK 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1SDAK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:23SDAK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:29SDAK Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09SDAK Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:21KSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDAKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
95.3%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDako 16Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+5
95.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Connor Herrmann for 5 yds to the SDako 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
95.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Connor Herrmann for 6 yds to the SDako 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
95.3%
Austin Simmons run for 3 yds to the SDako 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
95.3%
Brady Schutt punt for 46 yds , Duke Shelley returns for 4 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5395% → 95%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
95.0%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
95.0%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-2
95.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Andrew Hicks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trystn Ducker at the SDako 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 12 yds to the SDako 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 3 yds to the SDako 37Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 5 yds to the SDako 42Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Brett Samson for 5 yds to the SDako 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.5%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
94.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Brett SamsonSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Brady Schutt punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
94.2%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 17 Alex Barnes fumbled, forced by Mark Collins Jr., recovered by SDako Kameron ClineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 5FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:136% → 6%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.0%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
94.0%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+7
94.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Randy Baker for 7 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
93.7%
Mason Lorber 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:5694% → 93%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
93.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 9 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
93.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+44
93.8%
Skylar Thompson run for 44 yds to the SDako 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the SDako 20Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
94.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 5 yds to the SDako 15Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+10
93.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 10 yds to the SDako 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.0%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the SDako 4Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Nick LennersSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
93.9%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDako 7Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
93.0%
Blake Lynch 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 7TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:457% → 10%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
92.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 34 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
92.3%
Austin Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+14
92.4%
Ben Klett run for 14 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.2%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Shamar Jackson, broken up by AJ ParkerSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
92.2%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+20
92.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Reggie Crawford for 20 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.2%
Simmons,Austin pass incomplete to Falck,Levi, dropped pass, PENALTY KS DPI (Shelley, Duke) 5 yards to the KS2, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.2%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.1%
Austin Simmons run for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4191% → 90%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
90.5%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
90.6%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+4
90.5%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
90.6%
Alex Delton run for 14 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Zach Reuter, broken up by Isaac ArmsteadSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
89.8%
Alex Delton run for 16 yds to the SDako 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
90.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 27 yds to the SDako 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.3%
Alex Delton run for 7 yds to the SDako 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
90.3%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDako 5 Alex Barnes fumbled, forced by Phillip Powell,Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.0%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
89.9%
Blake Lynch 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
89.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 20 yds to the SDako 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
88.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 3
50
0
88.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi Falck, broken up by Duke ShelleySimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 3
50
0
88.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Connor HerrmannSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 3
50
+6
89.0%
Brady Schutt punt for 45 yds , Duke Shelley returns for 6 yds to the KANSASST 44 KANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (5 Yards) to the KanSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
88.8%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-1
88.7%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 8Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 8
-5
88.4%
Alex Delton sacked by Spencer Hopkins for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
88.3%
Andrew Hicks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trystn Ducker at the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.5%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
86.6%
Kai Henry run for 6 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
86.7%
Kai Henry run for 3 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
87.2%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4987% → 87%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
87.2%
Delton, Alex pass incomplete to Schoen, Dalton, PENALTY USD personal foul (Whitcomb,D.) 15 yards to the KS49, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
88.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 17 yds to the KANSASST 34 KANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Isaiah Zuber) to the SDako 44Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 3
OPP 44
+20
88.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 20 yds to the SDako 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
88.6%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the SDako 22Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
88.6%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+1
88.1%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd to the SDako 21Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
87.2%
Blake Lynch 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.4%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Randy Baker, broken up by Trey DishonSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
85.5%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
85.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dakarai AllenSimilar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.3%
Brady Schutt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Duke Shelley at the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4086% → 87%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
86.3%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 13 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
87.1%
Alex Delton run for 24 yds to the SDako 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
88.1%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 10 yds to the SDako 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
88.1%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd to the SDako 22Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-5
88.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDako 27Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
87.4%
Alex Delton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
87.2%
Blake Lynch 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 15TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 0:4113% → 24%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi Falck, broken up by Reggie WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+15
84.8%
Simmons,Austin pass intercepted by Walker, Eli at the KS34, Walker, Eli return to the USD40 (Falck,Levi), PENALTY KS DPI (Neil Jr., W.) 15 yards to the USD41, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY, PENALTY KS personal foul (Walker, Eli) 15 yards to the KS44, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
85.3%
Kai Henry run for 37 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Brett SamsonSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 7 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
71.7%
Alex Delton pass intercepted for a TD Alex Gray return for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5972% → 68%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
71.5%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Luis Peguero for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+10
70.4%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
67.9%
Andrew Hicks punt for 63 yds, downed at the SDako 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
67.4%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
67.4%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Isaac ArmsteadSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+21
66.5%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 21 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
68.6%
Barnes, Alex rush for 17 yards to the USD40 (Cochrane,Jack), PENALTY KS holding (Holtorf, Adam) 10 yards to the KS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+4
67.4%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
67.5%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Mark Collins Jr.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-10
66.7%
Delton, Alex pass complete to Schoen, Dalton for 21 yards to the USD42 (Gray,Andrew), PENALTY KS holding (Beecham, Abdul) 10 yards to the KS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 26
OWN 27
+9
66.4%
Alex Delton run for 9 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
66.6%
Andrew Hicks punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Trystn Ducker at the SDako 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:3040% → 46%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
59.7%
Canaan Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDako 33Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+13
59.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 13 yds to the SDako 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
58.0%
Canaan Brooks run for 5 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
58.1%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dakarai Allen, broken up by Kevion McGeeSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+17
58.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 17 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Connor HerrmannSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
57.8%
Austin Simmons run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
58.4%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Reggie Crawford, broken up by Kevion McGeeSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
54.4%
Mason Lorber 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Jonathan JoanisSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
56.6%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
56.4%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
56.1%
Andrew Hicks punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDako 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
50.9%
Austin Simmons run for 3 yds to the SDako 31Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the SDako 31Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
51.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi Falck, broken up by Duke ShelleySimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
52.6%
Brady Schutt punt for 53 yds , Duke Shelley returns for no gain to the KanSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
50.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
50.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 7 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Andrew Hicks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trystn Ducker at the SDako 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
41.1%
Kai Henry run for 6 yds to the SDako 44Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
40.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
50
+8
40.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 8 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
40.0%
Kai Henry run for 5 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.3%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Reggie Crawford, broken up by Kevion McGeeSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
40.3%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Connor HerrmannSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+5
40.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Randy Baker for 5 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
43.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Trystn Ducker, broken up by Kevion McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2242% → 36%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
41.7%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
41.3%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Alex Gray for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+11
34.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 11 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
36.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
35.8%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Phillip Powell return for no gain to the SDako 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 25PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:3972% → 56%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
28.4%
Ben Klett run for no gain to the SDako 11Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
28.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+30
29.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Randy Baker for 15 yds to the SDako 26 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the SDako 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Reggie CrawfordSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
27.2%
Kai Henry run for 1 yd to the SDako 42Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+5
27.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Randy Baker for 5 yds to the SDako 47Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+85
43.9%
Brady Schutt punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for 85 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 1:3855% → 56%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.8%
Ben Klett run for 1 yd to the SDako 26Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
45.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 10 yds to the SDako 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Shamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
43.7%
Austin Simmons sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 10 yards to the SDako 26Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 20
OWN 26
-5
43.0%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDako 21Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 25
OWN 21
0
43.2%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+12
44.5%
Brady Schutt punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 36 , Isaiah Zuber returns for 12 yds to the KanSt 33 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Colby Moore) to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5047% → 81%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
47.1%
Alex Barnes run for 34 yds to the SDako 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
54.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Zach Reuter, broken up by Mark Collins Jr.Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
54.1%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the SDako 27Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+15
51.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds to the SDako 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
54.2%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the SDako 10Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
54.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
80.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 10 yds for a TD (A. Barnes Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 24%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
73.0%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, delay of game (Austin Simmons) to the SDako 12Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
73.4%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Shamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+7
73.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Connor Herrmann for 7 yds to the SDako 19Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
75.1%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Connor HerrmannSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
76.3%
Brady Schutt punt for 51 yds, downed at the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 29FUMBLE
11 plays · 54 yds · 0:0078% → 83%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
78.2%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
80.1%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+22
78.8%
Alex Barnes run for 22 yds to the SDako 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
81.5%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the SDako 41Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
81.4%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the SDako 37Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
80.8%
Skylar Thompson run for 7 yds to the SDako 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
82.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the SDako 29Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
82.4%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the SDako 21Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-4
81.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Skylar Thompson) to the SDako 25Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
81.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the SDako 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
82.5%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the SDako 16 Alex Barnes fumbled, forced by Phillip Powell, recovered by SDako Alex GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 30MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:5021% → 25%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
79.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 10 yds to the SDako 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
78.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 18 yds to the SDako 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.9%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
75.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 12 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.0%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dakarai AllenSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
76.9%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+15
78.5%
Simmons,Austin pass incomplete to Falck,Levi, PENALTY KS DPI (McGee, Kevion) 15 yards to the KS29, 1ST DOWN USD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
69.8%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
73.6%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Levi FalckSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+51
75.0%
Mason Lorber 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:21
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 10 yds for a TD (A. Barnes Run For Two-point Conversion)
+26.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+25
TD · Q2 1:29
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 7 yds for a TD (Mason Lorber KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com