2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:11 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:52: Tre King run for 18 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +2.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:29: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — KU win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:29: Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 6 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 10:32TTU 4th & 21 at KU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.9%−0.29% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%56% to makePunt85.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:32KU 4th & 15 at KU 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q1 9:10TTU 4th & 16 at TTU 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.6%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q1 6:16KU 4th & 11 at KU 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q1 2:31KU 4th & 3 at TTU 3, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call16.1%−0.393% to makePunt14.6%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:54TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 12, up 7Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 8:50KU 4th & 7 at TTU 38, down 7Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.9%37% to convertField goal15.5%−0.438% to makePuntTheir call15.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:32KU 4th & 1 at KU 44, down 14Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:14KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00KU 4th & 10 at KU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q3 8:47TTU 4th & 10 at KU 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%56% to makePunt96.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:47KU 4th & 16 at KU 10, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 7:23TTU 4th & 20 at KU 46, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.710% to convertField goal96.9%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q3 0:00KU 4th & 7 at TTU 30, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−<0.137% to convertField goal1.4%56% to makePunt1.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:29KU 4th & 12 at KU 23, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 14:52TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:29TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00KU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:29TTU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:38TTU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:52TTU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:11KU Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1FG17 plays · 45 yds · 4:2883% → 82%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
83.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 11 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+10
83.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 10 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
83.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 3 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
83.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 4 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
83.2%
King, Tre rush for loss of 2 yards to the KU21 (Holmes, J.J.), PENALTY TTU holding (Anderson, Jack) 10 yards to the KU29, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+13
82.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 13 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.0%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr., broken up by Eli HowardSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
82.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Tre King run for no gain to the TexTc 23 Tre King fumbled, forced by Mike Lee,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 43
-5
81.5%
Kyle Thompson punt for 49 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
KUDrive 6FG5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2820% → 22%
Q1 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 0
0
79.9%
Bender, Peyton pass incomplete to Booker, J., PENALTY TTU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY KU illegal formation off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3980% → 83%
Q1 2:31
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+16
80.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 16 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
80.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
79.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 8 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
79.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 8 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
80.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 5 yds to the Kans 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8FUMBLE10 plays · 72 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
81.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
81.4%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 20 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
80.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 5 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
80.2%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexTc 3 Pooka Williams Jr. fumbled, forced by John Bonney, recovered by TexTc Dakota AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
81.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 4 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1119% → 18%
TTUDrive 11TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1582% → 88%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Joe Dineen Jr.Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+32
82.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 32 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
83.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 5 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+10
83.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 10 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+29
83.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 29 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
88.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5413% → 12%
Q2 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
87.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 7 yds to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD5 plays · 56 yds · 0:5789% → 96%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
89.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+15
89.3%
Bowman, Alan rush for no gain to the TTU49 (Johnson, Kyron), PENALTY KU personal foul (Johnson, Kyron) 15 yards to the KU36, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
89.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 7 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+25
89.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 25 yds to the Kans 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:156% → 6%
TTUDrive 15INT6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
96.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 15 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
96.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 15 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.4%
KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Mike Lee) to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
96.5%
Alan Bowman sacked by Joe Dineen Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Kans 47 TEXAS TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Alan Bowman) to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+37
96.3%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Hasan Defense return for 37 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
KUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG13 plays · 42 yds · 4:4796% → 97%
Q3 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 9 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+14
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 14 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
96.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
96.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-10
95.9%
Bowman, Alan pass complete to Vasher, T.J. for no gain to the KU31, PENALTY TTU holding (Anderson, Jack) 10 yards to the KU41, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-10
96.7%
Williams, Pooka rush for no gain to the KU20 (Bonney, John), PENALTY KU holding (Fontana, Alex) 10 yards to the KU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
96.8%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete KANSAS Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+17
96.8%
Kyle Thompson punt for 43 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for 17 yds to the Kans 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
KUDrive 21TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:203% → 4%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 8 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-4
97.1%
Peyton Bender sacked by Kolin Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
97.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 17 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
97.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Corione Harris for 8 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+11
97.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 11 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
96.7%
Bender, Peyton pass incomplete to Harris, Corione, PENALTY KU ineligible downfield on pass (Adeniji, Hakeem) 5 yards to the TTU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+4
96.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 4 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+30
95.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:3197% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
97.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 37 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
97.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 4 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 6 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:29
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Kwamie Lassiter II, broken up by Nelson MbanasorSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-11
99.2%
Kyle Thompson punt for 46 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 12 TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.5%
Alan Bowman run for no gain to the TexTc 10 Alan Bowman fumbled, recovered by Kans Joe Dineen Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TTUDrive 26TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 15 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+37
99.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 37 yds to the Kans 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 11 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27PUNT8 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr., broken up by Desmon SmithSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+21
99.9%
Bender, Peyton pass incomplete to Schadler, Ryan, PENALTY TTU holding (Smith, Desmon) 21 yards to the TTU49, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-14
99.9%
Peyton Bender sacked by Damarcus Fields for a loss of 14 yards to the Kans 37 Peyton Bender fumbled, recovered by Kans Khalil Herbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 24
OWN 37
-12
99.9%
Peyton Bender sacked by Kolin Hill for a loss of 12 yards to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 36
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Kyle Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Caden Leggett for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to De'Quan Bowman for 11 yds to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29TD8 plays · 88 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
100.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 10 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+44
100.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 44 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 6 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+18
100.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 18 yds for a TD (Davon Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30END OF GAME2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:29
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q2 4:26
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 0:00
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3