2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:02 · Billy Kinney punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:12: Peyton Bender pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 18 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +2.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:52: Will Grier pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 14 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:50: Khalil Herbert run for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +6.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:01: Peyton Bender pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 18 yds for a TD (Peyton Bender pass to Kwamie Lassiter II for Two-Point Conversion) — KU win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:02WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q1 11:31KU 4th & 1 at KU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:33KU 4th & 8 at KU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q2 8:55KU 4th & 2 at KU 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:09KU 4th & 9 at WVU 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q3 4:21KU 4th & 7 at KU 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q4 11:02KU 4th & 22 at KU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it3.9%−1.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q4 8:40WVU 4th & 24 at WVU 6, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it94.5%−1.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q4 5:05WVU 4th & 18 at KU 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.713% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%51% to makePunt96.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:01KU 4th & 19 at KU 30, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 9:28WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:21WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:12KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:52WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:50KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.3%97% to makeGo for two10.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:20WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
- Q4 0:01KU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick1.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5395% → 95%
KUDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · -1 yds · 1:255% → 6%
WVUDrive 3TD5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5695% → 95%
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+26
94.4%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 26 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
94.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Hardy) to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
94.5%
Will Grier pass complete to Leddie Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:376% → 6%
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
94.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0694% → 95%
Q1 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+14
94.0%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 14 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:356% → 6%
WVUDrive 7INT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0595% → 95%
KUDrive 8TD6 plays · 72 yds · 2:016% → 8%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
94.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+15
94.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+26
93.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 26 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 18 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1393% → 95%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
92.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Trevon Wesco for 7 yds to the WVirg 32 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (David Sills V) to the WVirg 22Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+8
92.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Trevon Wesco for 8 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+39
92.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 39 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
92.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+7
92.8%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
94.6%
Will Grier pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 14 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT13 plays · 28 yds · 3:366% → 6%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Dylan Tonkery) to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
93.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
93.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 7 yds to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11INT14 plays · 82 yds · 5:0094% → 94%
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+18
94.2%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 18 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+8
94.3%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 8 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
94.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Tevin Bush for 14 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
94.4%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+15
94.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 15 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+60
93.9%
Will Grier pass intercepted Hasan Defense return for 60 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12INT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:307% → 7%
WVUDrive 13INT11 plays · 55 yds · 2:0294% → 94%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
94.2%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
94.3%
Will Grier run for 2 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST down David Sills V for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
94.3%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 10 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+12
94.3%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 12 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
94.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 4 yds to the Kans 10Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+12
93.8%
Will Grier pass intercepted Davon Ferguson return for 12 yds to the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:046% → 14%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.7%
KANSAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Kick (-5 Yards) to the Kans 20Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kans 25 KANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Kans 15Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
93.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 2 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+35
93.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 35 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
92.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 16 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
92.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16FUMBLE13 plays · 21 yds · 4:0389% → 90%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
90.3%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 7 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
90.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-10
90.1%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 20
OPP 33
-11
90.3%
Will Grier sacked by Kyron Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 44 Will Grier fumbled, recovered by Kans J.J. Holmes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0913% → 12%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
86.6%
Peyton Bender sacked by Jovanni Stewart for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+7
87.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 7 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+7
87.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 37 yds , Marcus Simms returns for 7 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD10 plays · 77 yds · 4:1089% → 97%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
89.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Dominique Maiden for 12 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
91.4%
Will Grier pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 5 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
96.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 16 yds · 3:495% → 4%
WVUDrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · -14 yds · 2:1597% → 97%
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-7
96.9%
Will Grier sacked by Daniel Wise for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 17Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-6
97.0%
Will Grier sacked by Daniel Wise for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 11Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+3
96.8%
Billy Kinney punt for 35 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 3 yds to the WVirg 38 Kwamie Lassiter II fumbled, recovered by WVirgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21FG9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2597% → 98%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
97.2%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 4 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+21
97.4%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings Jr. for 21 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
97.7%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Kans 26Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-6
97.8%
Will Grier sacked by Joe Dineen Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 4 yds · 1:492% → 1%
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
98.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 10 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
98.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-16
98.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 45 KANSAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Kans 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:3099% → 100%
KUDrive 24TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:100% → 3%
Q4 1:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
99.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
99.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 20 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 3 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+18
99.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 18 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 18 yds for a TD (Peyton Bender pass to Kwamie Lassiter II for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:50
Khalil Herbert run for 31 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q3 0:00
Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 12 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+4.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.5