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KSU

Kansas State 38 at Iowa State 42

ISU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+12ISU 68.8%David Montgomery run for 11 yds for aTD, (Connor Assalley KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 21 · Q3 12:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:23 · David Montgomery run for 11 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+12.6Home team on offense+2.5Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:25: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +20.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:27: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +17.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:18: Brock Purdy pass complete to Sam Seonbuchner for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +13.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:34: David Montgomery run for 18 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +39.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:29ISU 4th & 2 at KSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.2%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:43ISU 4th & 5 at KSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:46ISU 4th & 21 at KSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57KSU 4th & 24 at KSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:23ISU 4th & 1 at KSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−3.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−14.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:07KSU 4th & 10 at ISU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:25KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:29KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:29KSU 4th & 7 at ISU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.5%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:15ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:26KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:15ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:50KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:30KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:23ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:25KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:27KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:18ISU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:34ISU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
76.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
76.7%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+1
76.7%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
76.7%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
76.7%
Devin Anctil punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
50
+8
76.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
76.5%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
76.4%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
76.5%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
76.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sam Seonbuchner for 2 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-1
76.4%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+5
76.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
76.4%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
75.4%
Thompson, Skylar pass incomplete to Reuter, Zach, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Eisworth, Greg) 15 yards to the KS43, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
75.1%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
75.1%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
75.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for no gain to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
75.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:5175% → 78%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.3%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
75.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
50
+41
75.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 41 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
75.7%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
75.7%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:4323% → 30%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
76.9%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
76.4%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
76.4%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
76.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 16 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Blaise Gammon for 5 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+13
76.1%
Alex Barnes run for 13 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
75.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 1 yd to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
75.8%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+7
76.3%
Skylar Thompson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
74.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
70.1%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:0373% → 78%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
72.6%
David Montgomery run for 15 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
72.7%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
73.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+65
72.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 65 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.2%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:1924% → 36%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
76.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 12 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Blaise Gammon for 2 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+12
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 12 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.6%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
75.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for no gain to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+31
75.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 31 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
74.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+12
74.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 12 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
74.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.3%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:5771% → 70%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
71.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Denzel GoolsbySimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
70.8%
David Montgomery run for 26 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-23
72.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 33
OWN 40
+14
70.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 14 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+14
70.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 14 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+29
71.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 29 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
73.0%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 5Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.0%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the KanSt 2Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
71.8%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Milton, Tarique for 2 yards to the KS0, clock 03:03, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Butler, Hakeem) 15 yards to the KS17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-4
70.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Chase Johnston for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 21Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
70.4%
Connor Assalley 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 1:4932% → 32%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
67.6%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
67.8%
Skylar Thompson run for 9 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
66.7%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
66.8%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-6
68.1%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 26
OWN 16
+2
67.7%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 24
OWN 18
+7
68.0%
Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 7 yds to the IowSt 34 Tarique Milton fumbled, forced by Colby Moore, recovered by KanSt Colby MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:2740% → 53%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
60.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 8 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+20
59.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 20 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.8%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:3154% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+50
54.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 50 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
58.9%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
58.9%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+10
56.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 10 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+11
68.8%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1136% → 44%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
63.8%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+42
63.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 42 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
59.7%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+6
59.7%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.7%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
60.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
61.4%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
56.3%
Blake Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0058% → 63%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.4%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Milton, Tarique, PENALTY KS pass interference (Neil Jr., Walter) 15 yards to the ISU40, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
62.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
60.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 6 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.5%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Kevion McGee return for no gain to the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:4344% → 69%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
56.4%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+8
55.9%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
55.8%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
55.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 9 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+49
53.5%
Alex Barnes run for 49 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
51.0%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 9Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
34.3%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
35.0%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete, QB hurry by Dishon, Trey, PENALTY ISU ineligible downfield on pass (Meeker, Bryce) 5 yards to the ISU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
34.3%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
34.8%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
36.5%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
36.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+18
34.8%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Kevion McGee return for 18 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:2871% → 91%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
29.5%
Dalvin Warmack run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+4
28.9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
29.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for 7 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
28.2%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
26.5%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
26.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 3 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+21
27.5%
Alex Barnes run for 21 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
26.1%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:0411% → 23%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+28
10.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 28 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
12.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 8 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+30
12.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 30 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
13.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 7 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+1
13.5%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the KanSt 3Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
22.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sam Seonbuchner for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3982% → 64%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.1%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
17.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Zach Reuter) to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
18.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 7 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
36.0%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 7 yards Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by IowSt Mike Rose , return for 0 yards , return for 21 yds (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
35.6%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
34.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Zach Reuter, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+4
38.9%
Devin Anctil punt for 46 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1140% → 87%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
40.0%
Brock Purdy run for 17 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
44.7%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Eaton, Matthew, PENALTY KS pass interference (McGee, Kevion) 15 yards to the KS37, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
45.8%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
48.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+9
45.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 9 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
48.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
87.3%
David Montgomery run for 18 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
73.6%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
74.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 8 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+20
73.7%
Alex Barnes run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
66.7%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
67.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Arnold AzunnaSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
72.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23Uncategorized
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:1194% → 95%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
94.0%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+11
94.6%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:34
David Montgomery run for 18 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+39.2
TD · Q3 4:25
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q4 12:27
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
-17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com