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ISU

Iowa State 27 at Kansas 3

KU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:52 · Corey Dunn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Home team on offense−54.9Pregame prior−0.6Score differential−31.4Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−15.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:20: Connor Assalley 47 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +2.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:23: TEAM pass incomplete — KU win probability +3.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: Gabriel Rui 47 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +4.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ISU win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:10: Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34KU 4th & 1 at KU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21KU 4th & 17 at KU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:52KU 4th & 3 at ISU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:09KU 4th & 16 at KU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:20ISU 4th & 8 at KU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49ISU 4th & 5 at KU 5, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:38KU 4th & 2 at ISU 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00KU 4th & 9 at KU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:10KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:03ISU 4th & 3 at KU 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:45ISU 4th & 21 at KU 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00KU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15ISU 4th & 25 at ISU 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:49KU 4th & 2 at ISU 2, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:43ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:08KU 4th & 7 at ISU 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:52ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 27, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:39ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:10ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.8%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
13.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 7 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
13.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
13.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
13.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
13.8%
Corey Dunn punt for 30 yds, downed at the Kans 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
15.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
15.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
14.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
14.9%
Kyle Thompson punt for 60 yds, downed at the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 0:5784% → 85%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
15.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 9 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+3
15.8%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
15.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 83 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:1115% → 15%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
15.3%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+1
15.3%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kans 19Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-7
15.3%
Peyton Bender sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 12 Peyton Bender fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+4
15.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
15.2%
Kyle Thompson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:3385% → 86%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
15.4%
David Montgomery run for 14 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
13.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 51 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
14.4%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kans 24Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+19
14.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 19 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
14.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 8 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
14.7%
Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
14.7%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
14.7%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Stephon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+6
14.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
14.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
14.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 5 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
14.8%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Stephon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
14.7%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete, broken up by Datrone YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
14.0%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
14.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
14.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
14.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
14.3%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 34Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
14.2%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Khalil Herbert, broken up by JaQuan BaileySimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-5
14.1%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
14.1%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Pooka Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+13
14.1%
Kyle Thompson punt for 53 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 13 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:5286% → 89%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
14.0%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
13.6%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
13.6%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
13.7%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
13.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
13.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
13.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
13.6%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
13.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
13.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
11.2%
Connor Assalley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
12.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
50
-6
13.5%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+14
13.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 14 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
13.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
13.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
13.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
13.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
13.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 7 yds Stephon Robinson fumbled, forced by Brian Peavy, recovered by IowSt Jamahl Johnson , return for 11 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:4389% → 92%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
10.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for 2 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
10.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 15 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
10.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 28 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
10.3%
Brock Purdy run for 13 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
10.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for 3 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
10.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for 2 yds to the Kans 2Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
10.4%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 5Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
8.2%
Connor Assalley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 2:469% → 17%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
9.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 9 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
9.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
9.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
10.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
10.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
10.2%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
9.8%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+2
9.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
9.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
9.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
9.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
13.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
13.0%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+47
17.1%
Gabriel Rui 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.4%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
11.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
11.2%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
11.2%
Kyle Thompson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3290% → 97%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
10.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 12 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
10.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 7 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-2
9.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
10.1%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
9.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+12
9.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 12 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
9.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the Kans 8Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
9.7%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the Kans 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
4.9%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
4.9%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
4.8%
Kyle Thompson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 30 yds · 6:1897% → 98%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
2.7%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
2.7%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
2.8%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
2.7%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-2
2.6%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 44Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
2.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique Milton, broken up by Hasan DefenseSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+12
3.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 12 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
2.7%
Brock Purdy run for 11 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
2.6%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
2.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 2 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-9
2.6%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Soehner, Dylan for 8 yards to the KU8 (Torneden, Bryce), PENALTY ISU holding (Benton, Spencer) 9 yards to the KU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-7
2.8%
Brock Purdy sacked by Codey Cole for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 32Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 21
OPP 32
+49
1.8%
Connor Assalley 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:453% → 3%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
3.2%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
3.2%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.4%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
3.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
3.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
3.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+2
2.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
1.4%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
1.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 4 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
1.3%
Brock Purdy sacked by Daniel Wise for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 11
50
-14
1.3%
Brock Purdy sacked by Bryce Torneden for a loss of 14 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 25
OWN 36
0
1.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 50 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for no gain to the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19DOWNS
18 plays · 85 yds · 4:532% → 1%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
1.9%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
1.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Pooka Williams Jr., broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+14
1.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 14 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
2.0%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Mavin SaundersSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
1.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 12 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
2.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
2.1%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
2.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 10 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.2%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Mavin SaundersSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
2.2%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Stephon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+34
2.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 34 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
2.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Mavin Saunders, broken up by De'Monte RuthSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
2.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Brian Peavy) to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.5%
Khalil Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.6%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.5%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
0.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 2Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
0.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
0.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
0.7%
Corey Dunn punt for 38 yds, downed at the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
1.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 20 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
1.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Takulve Williams for 15 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.1%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
1.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson, broken up by Mike RoseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1199% → 100%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
0.8%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 8Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+10
0.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Landen Akers for 10 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for no gain to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
0.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 7 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
0.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Kwamie Lassiter IISimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
0.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 11 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
0.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 3
50
0
0.3%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Takulve WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Chris Francis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-6.4
TD · Q3 10:10
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
-4.9
FG · Q2 0:03
Gabriel Rui 47 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com