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TTU

Texas Tech 31 at Iowa State 40

ISU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:43 · Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:10: Alan Bowman run for 1 yd for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +14.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:03: Alan Bowman pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 41 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +15.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:21: Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 31 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +14.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:41: David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +13.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:25: Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 48 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +15.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:06TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16ISU 4th & 14 at TTU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:43TTU 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:28TTU 4th & 4 at ISU 9, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:23TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:51TTU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:34ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:47TTU 4th & 11 at TTU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:26ISU 4th & 8 at TTU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:34TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:02ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:37TTU 4th & 20 at ISU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:06ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52ISU 4th & 14 at TTU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:08TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−8.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:52ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:35ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:35ISU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:10TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:03ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:21TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:41ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:25ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3931% → 31%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
69.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-1
69.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+3
69.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
68.9%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1669% → 67%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.9%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 18Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-1
68.8%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 17Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
68.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
67.4%
Corey Dunn punt blocked by Thomas Leggett blocked by Thomas Leggett for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:2168% → 65%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
67.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
67.6%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
67.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
67.4%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
67.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Landen AkersSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
67.1%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
67.1%
Brock Purdy run for 22 yds to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
67.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Meeker) to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
66.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+6
66.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 6 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 14
OPP 19
0
65.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Kene NwangwuSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+37
65.2%
Connor Assalley 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:2735% → 36%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
65.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
64.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 11 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
64.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
63.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 11
50
0
63.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 11
50
0
63.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 11
50
0
64.4%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1764% → 63%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
64.3%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 5Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+3
64.0%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
63.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
63.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3838% → 40%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
62.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 17 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
62.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for 7 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
61.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
61.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
60.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
60.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
60.4%
Clayton Hatfield 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4560% → 67%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
59.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
58.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 11 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordyn Brooks) to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
59.4%
Brock Purdy sacked by Joseph Wallace for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+15
58.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
59.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 22 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
60.7%
David Montgomery run for 15 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
60.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 9 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+8
59.8%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 3:3436% → 38%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
63.0%
Demarcus Felton run for no gain to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
63.3%
Alan Bowman run for 2 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.3%
Alan Bowman run for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
61.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
61.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 7 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
61.3%
Alan Bowman run for 7 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
60.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
60.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
61.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Jacob Hines) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 8
50
0
61.9%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0961% → 60%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
61.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for 6 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-1
61.5%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 13Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
60.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
59.9%
Corey Dunn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3940% → 39%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
59.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
58.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
59.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
61.2%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:0160% → 71%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+41
59.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 41 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
62.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
62.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
63.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
63.3%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+15
61.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 15 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
63.0%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
71.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 9 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 4:1332% → 49%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
67.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
66.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
69.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 3 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
69.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 12 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
68.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 6 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+16
67.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 16 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
66.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Zach Austin for 14 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
64.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
63.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 5 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
63.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 13 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.7%
Alan Bowman run for 1 yd for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
54.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1462% → 65%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
61.6%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
62.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-6
62.0%
Brock Purdy sacked by Justus Parker for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 16
OPP 17
0
61.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 16
OPP 17
+8
57.7%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
64.6%
Connor Assalley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15INT TD
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1340% → 26%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
58.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
59.3%
Alan Bowman run for 2 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+41
74.1%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 41 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:3426% → 44%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for no gain to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
73.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 13 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
71.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
72.0%
Alan Bowman run for 12 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
70.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
70.6%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
56.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 31 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3263% → 81%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.6%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
62.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
50
0
66.1%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
50
+44
65.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 44 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
67.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5124% → 22%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
76.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 2 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+20
76.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 20 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
75.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Alan Bowman run for no gain to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
76.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
77.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2580% → 82%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
80.3%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+6
80.7%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
81.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2323% → 18%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Demarcus FeltonSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
78.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 14 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
75.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 17 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
73.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Alan Bowman for 10 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
75.5%
Alan Bowman sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 34 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
77.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Demarcus FeltonSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 20
OPP 34
0
79.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 20
OPP 34
0
81.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4084% → 59%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
84.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
59.1%
Brock Purdy sacked by Riko Jeffers for a loss of 6 yards Brock Purdy fumbled, forced by Riko Jeffers, recovered by TexTc Dakota Allen , return for 0 yards for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:3960% → 58%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.2%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
59.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
59.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
57.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Joseph Wallace) to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.6%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
63.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Landen AkersSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
60.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+8
58.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 47 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2445% → 48%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
55.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 9 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
52.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
53.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 9 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
49.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 7 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
50.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+12
52.4%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Marcel Spears Jr. return for 12 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3365% → 56%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
64.6%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
64.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
63.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+14
61.1%
Brock Purdy run for 14 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
65.8%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
63.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 9
OPP 33
-5
58.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 27 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3947% → 43%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
53.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ta'Zhawn HenrySimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
53.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for no gain to the TexTc 11Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
54.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
56.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0863% → 59%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
62.7%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
63.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
62.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
59.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 34 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27SF
1 play · -15 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-15
67.4%
Alan Bowman sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 15 yards for a SAFETY TEXAS TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Alan Bowman) to the TexTc 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0773% → 95%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
73.8%
David Montgomery run for 25 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
78.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+48
94.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 48 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:305% → 6%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
95.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 31 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ta'Zhawn HenrySimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+41
93.8%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Greg Eisworth return for 41 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 30Uncategorized
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
96.6%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
96.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+10
96.8%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:25
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 48 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q3 11:03
Alan Bowman pass intercepted for a TD Marcel Spears Jr. return for 41 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 8:21
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 31 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com