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ISU

Iowa State 48 at Oklahoma State 42

OKST
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:56 · Zach Sinor run for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY Zach Sinor fumbled, recovered by OKSt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+21.3Home team on offense+0.5Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:21: Tyron Johnson 28 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick) — OKST win probability +12.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:35: Taylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick) — OKST win probability +14.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:25: Justice Hill 5 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick) — OKST win probability +21.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:09: Tarique Milton 60 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Sheldon Croney Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ISU win probability +17.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Tylan Wallace 42 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick) — OKST win probability +15.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 13:27ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56OKST 4th & 20 at OKST 7, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20ISU 4th & 4 at OKST 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:44ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:00OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:36ISU 4th & 12 at OKST 35, up 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:04ISU 4th & 4 at OKST 4, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:21OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:15OKST 4th & 1 at ISU 14, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−11.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:56OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 12, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:36ISU 4th & 6 at OKST 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:03OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04ISU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:37ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:06OKST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:36ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:21OKST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:21ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:35OKST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:06ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:25OKST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:09ISU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:56OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2326% → 26%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
74.4%
Zeb Noland sacked by Trey Carter for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
74.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
74.2%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+1
74.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds , Tylan Wallace returns for 1 yd to the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2474% → 75%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
74.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Larry Williams) to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+8
74.1%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
74.0%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+48
73.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 48 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
74.2%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
75.1%
Jelani Woods 14 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4825% → 25%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.7%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.6%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
74.9%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
75.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4SF
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:5475% → 73%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
74.9%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-5
75.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Keyes) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-4
75.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-9
74.8%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 7Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 20
OWN 7
0
73.0%
Zach Sinor run for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY Zach Sinor fumbled, recovered by OKStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4626% → 30%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sam Seonbuchner for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.1%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+13
72.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for 13 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
72.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 9 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+7
72.4%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
72.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
69.8%
Hakeem Butler 21 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:3071% → 70%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
71.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-2
70.9%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+19
70.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Jelani Woods for 19 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
71.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Tylan Wallace) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-11
70.6%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by D'Andre Payne for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+11
69.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 11 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4631% → 38%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
69.2%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for no gain to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
68.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 12 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
68.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Colin Newell) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+9
68.4%
Kene Nwangwu run for 9 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
67.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+4
67.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 4 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
68.4%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
61.8%
Brock Purdy 29 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1462% → 70%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
62.3%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+22
62.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 22 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
63.0%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Spencer Benton for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+23
61.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 23 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
63.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
63.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 10 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
62.4%
Taylor Cornelius run for 3 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
62.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
70.2%
Landon Wolf 8 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1434% → 34%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
66.4%
Kene Nwangwu run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
66.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
66.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0767% → 65%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
67.1%
Landon Wolf run for 6 yds to the OKSt 35 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 14
OWN 25
-7
66.4%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 21
OWN 18
0
66.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 21
OWN 18
0
65.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 21
OWN 18
+3
64.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:4137% → 47%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+55
63.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 55 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
61.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Charlie Kolar) to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sam SeonbuchnerSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
61.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Collin Olson) to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
53.3%
Sheldon Croney Jr. 12 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0956% → 68%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.5%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
55.6%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
54.7%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
55.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OKSt Taylor Cornelius Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-3
54.0%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Marcel Spears Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+27
52.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 27 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
55.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 12 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
67.9%
Tyron Johnson 28 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4937% → 53%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
62.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 28 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
59.4%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+21
59.6%
Brock Purdy run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
57.5%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-1
57.4%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
46.6%
Matthew Eaton 26 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0852% → 50%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
51.7%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-8
50.2%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1551% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
50.5%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
51.8%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
50.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
51.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 15 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.0%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Taylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1941% → 58%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
59.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 40 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
55.7%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
55.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 9 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
42.3%
Deshaunte Jones 23 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0046% → 42%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
44.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 4 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
42.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
41.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1457% → 59%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
42.9%
Brock Purdy sacked by Cole Walterscheid for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+25
41.9%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
39.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
38.8%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
38.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Landen AkersSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-4
39.1%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jordan Brailford for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
41.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 22 yds, downed at the OKSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0741% → 38%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
40.7%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
40.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-3
37.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 55 yds , Tarique Milton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0761% → 66%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
38.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-3
37.6%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+9
38.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 9 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
35.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 17 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.2%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
33.9%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Rodarius Williams return for no gain to the OKSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3537% → 37%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
36.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 13 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
36.8%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Brian Peavy for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 18 Taylor Cornelius fumbled, recovered by IowSt Marcel Spears Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1668% → 80%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
32.2%
Kene Nwangwu run for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
30.5%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
30.1%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
27.2%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
26.7%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the OKSt 4Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
20.5%
Connor Assalley 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:2925% → 19%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
25.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+19
23.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
24.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
24.9%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Jake Hummel for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-10
22.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnny Wilson) to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
20.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 17
OWN 37
+1
19.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds , De'Monte Ruth returns for 1 yd to the IowSt 23 De'Monte Ruth fumbled, recovered by OKSt Amen OgbongbemigaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4925% → 45%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
24.8%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
23.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+10
21.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 10 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
22.2%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
23.6%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
45.4%
Justice Hill 5 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3569% → 71%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
30.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
29.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
28.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5733% → 27%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
32.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for no gain to the OKSt 12Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
30.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
28.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Justice HillSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
26.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:4177% → 94%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
23.2%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+60
5.9%
Tarique Milton 60 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Sheldon Croney Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:428% → 7%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
7.9%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-1
8.5%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
7.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 5 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
7.7%
Taylor Cornelius run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
6.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass intercepted Braxton Lewis return for no gain to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
4.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 4 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-2
2.2%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+2
2.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 2 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
2.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 39 yds, downed at the OKSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 1:344% → 19%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+23
4.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 23 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
4.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Justice Hill for 1 yd to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
3.4%
Taylor Cornelius run for 12 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
3.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Spencer Benton) to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
4.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
3.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+42
19.1%
Tylan Wallace 42 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 31Uncategorized
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:2895% → 94%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-5
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:25
Justice Hill 5 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)
+21.8
TD · Q4 6:09
Tarique Milton 60 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Sheldon Croney Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.3
TD · Q4 0:56
Tylan Wallace 42 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com