Try the model
ISU

Iowa State 14 at TCU 17

TCU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Jeff Gladney
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+0.3Home team on offense+17.4Garbage-time factor+4.9Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:35: Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +9.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. SACK · Q3 14:11: Zeb Noland sacked by Innis Gaines for a loss of 6 yards Zeb Noland fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Banogu , return for 0 yards , return for 47 yds (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +12.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:51: David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +27.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:09: David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 8 — ISU win probability +11.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  5. FG · Q4 0:37: Jonathan Song 28 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +32.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46ISU 4th & 4 at TCU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51TCU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:35ISU 4th & 7 at TCU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:35ISU 4th & 5 at TCU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:44TCU 4th & 5 at ISU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:11ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−2.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−2.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:22ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:09ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:37TCU 4th & 9 at ISU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−9.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−38.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:10ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:35TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:51ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
76.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
76.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
76.8%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
76.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 9 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
76.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+4
76.8%
Andrew David punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 40 , Tarique Milton returns for 4 yds to the IowSt 47 TCU Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
75.8%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
75.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 3 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.7%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
75.8%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
75.8%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
75.9%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
75.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
76.0%
Shawn Robinson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
50
0
75.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart, broken up by Willie HarveySimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 3
50
0
75.7%
Andrew David punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.1%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
75.0%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
75.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 7 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
75.0%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+16
74.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 16 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
74.6%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
74.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
74.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Tarique Milton, broken up by Markell SimmonsSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
75.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:5374% → 73%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
74.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
74.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+11
73.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 11 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
74.3%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
74.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
74.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 7 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
74.7%
Darius Anderson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
75.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
74.4%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
50
-11
73.1%
Shawn Robinson sacked by Will McDonald for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 22 Shawn Robinson fumbled, recovered by IowSt JaQuan Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0530% → 36%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
70.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+8
70.1%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
70.1%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Butler, Hakeem, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Lewis, Julius) 10 yards to the TCU2, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
70.1%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:2966% → 73%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
65.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 5 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+24
65.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 24 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
66.9%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
66.9%
Shawn Robinson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+9
67.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
67.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+19
68.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 19 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
68.2%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-1
68.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
72.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
67.3%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Milton, Tarique, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Scott, Vernon) 15 yards to the TCU49, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
65.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
65.9%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+3
66.5%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
67.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:4170% → 69%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
69.9%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-6
69.8%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+20
68.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 20 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
70.3%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 15 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
72.1%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+5
69.9%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
71.0%
Shawn Robinson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
71.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.7%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 5 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
71.4%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by JaQuan BaileySimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
69.3%
Andrew David punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
65.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4137% → 25%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
62.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+47
75.0%
Zeb Noland sacked by Innis Gaines for a loss of 6 yards Zeb Noland fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Banogu , return for 0 yards , return for 47 yds (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
77.0%
Zeb Noland sacked by Garret Wallow for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+1
77.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 1 yd to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
78.7%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+11
79.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 39 , Jalen Reagor returns for 11 yds to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FUMBLE
16 plays · 52 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
79.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
79.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
79.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
50
+8
80.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-2
80.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
79.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 6 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
80.6%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
80.9%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
80.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
79.1%
Shawn Robinson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
80.9%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
80.9%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
80.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
79.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
80.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
80.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 6 yds Artayvious Lynn fumbled, forced by D'Andre Payne, recovered by IowSt O'Rien VanceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:3621% → 18%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
78.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
78.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
79.5%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Landen Akers for 5 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
78.2%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Julius LewisSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
78.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Sheldon Croney Jr.Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+3
82.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to David Montgomery for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
82.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3786% → 86%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
86.7%
Shawn Robinson run for 5 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+4
86.4%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
86.4%
Andrew David punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:4016% → 49%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
83.7%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Eaton, Matthew, PENALTY TCU holding (Lewis, Julius) 10 yards to the ISU32, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
83.0%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
82.2%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+6
80.2%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.4%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-15
80.6%
Noland, Zeb pass complete to Butler, Hakeem for 6 yards to the TCU36 (Lewis, Julius;Issahaku, R.), PENALTY ISU pass interference (Jones, D.) 15 yards to the ISU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 25
OWN 43
0
83.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 25
OWN 43
+28
84.0%
Zeb Noland run for 28 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
78.7%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+15
78.7%
David Montgomery run for 15 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
78.7%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
78.7%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.0%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0062% → 67%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
62.5%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+19
62.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 19 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
67.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
67.3%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
66.7%
Shawn Robinson pass intercepted Braxton Lewis return for no gain to the IowSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
55.7%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+1
56.0%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
59.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
57.7%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:1266% → 94%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
66.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
66.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
68.2%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
68.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+19
66.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 19 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
68.4%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-1
68.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 11Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
65.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
93.6%
Jonathan Song 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
88.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 2 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
88.4%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
89.2%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Sheldon Croney Jr.Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
89.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:37
Jonathan Song 28 yd FG GOOD
+32
TD · Q4 7:51
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
-27.7
SACK · Q3 14:11
Zeb Noland sacked by Innis Gaines for a loss of 6 yards Zeb Noland fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Banogu , return for 0 yards , return for 47 yds (Jonathan Song KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com