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AKR

Akron 13 at Iowa State 26

ISU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+2ISU 98.3%Connor Assalley 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 26 · Q4 0:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Connor Assalley 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+29.0Garbage-time factor+14.8Score differential+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:21: Nick Gasser 45 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +5.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +4.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:59: Nick Gasser 49 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +1.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:56: Connor Assalley 29 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +6.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:30: Connor Assalley 37 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:36ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36AKR 4th & 20 at AKR 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:45ISU 4th & 6 at AKR 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21AKR 4th & 4 at ISU 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:16ISU 4th & 5 at AKR 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:59AKR 4th & 17 at ISU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:53ISU 4th & 9 at AKR 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:09AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56ISU 4th & 5 at AKR 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−10.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:56AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50ISU 4th & 8 at AKR 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−8.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:50AKR 4th & 5 at ISU 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:34AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30ISU 4th & 7 at AKR 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:23AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:30ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1INT
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
91.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 19 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
91.5%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to WARD, Josh, PENALTY ISU personal foul (Ruth, De'Monte) 15 yards to the ISU39, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
91.5%
Kato Nelson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
91.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 5 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.5%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Braxton Lewis return for no gain to the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+10
90.9%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
90.9%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
91.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
90.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
90.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
90.1%
Kato Nelson run for 13 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.1%
Andre Williams run for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
90.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
90.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 48 yds, downed at the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to David Montgomery, broken up by Jamal Davis IISimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 3 yds Tarique Milton fumbled, forced by Brian Bell, recovered by Akron Alvin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:5111% → 13%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
87.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 26 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3888% → 89%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
88.1%
David Montgomery run for 13 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
88.1%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
88.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 5 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
88.1%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
88.3%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Akron 24Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
88.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 24 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
88.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 29 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
87.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
87.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-9
87.8%
Kato Nelson sacked by Matt Leo for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:4588% → 87%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
87.7%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
87.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
87.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 4 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
87.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 14 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
88.2%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
87.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
87.3%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
87.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
86.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr.Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
86.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+1
86.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 1 yd to the Akron 16Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+37
86.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 32 , Tarique Milton returns for 37 yds to the IOWAST 47 IOWA ST Penalty, illegal formation (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5688% → 87%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
87.5%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+21
87.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 21 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
87.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+4
87.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to David Montgomery for 4 yds to the Akron 10Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
86.8%
Connor Assalley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:2413% → 19%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
87.1%
Kato Nelson run for 10 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
86.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jonah Morris, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
86.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+22
87.0%
Kato Nelson run for 22 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.7%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
85.7%
Deltron Sands run for 5 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-1
86.1%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
80.8%
Nick Gasser 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:4684% → 88%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
83.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 13 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
84.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 9 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+14
84.8%
David Montgomery run for 14 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
85.0%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
84.9%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+6
84.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sam Seonbuchner for 6 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+10
84.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 10 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
85.5%
David Montgomery run for 21 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.6%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.5%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+4
86.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
86.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 5:1714% → 16%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
85.7%
Kato Nelson run for 6 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
85.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 29Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
85.7%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Brandon Council) to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+17
86.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 17 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
84.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 7 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+16
84.2%
Kwadarrius Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (Braxton Lewis) to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.0%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
82.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
84.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
82.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
82.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Marcel Spears Jr.Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-5
84.2%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (Kato Nelson) to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-5
84.9%
AKRON Penalty, illegal procedure (Bryce Petersen) to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
85.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by JaQuan BaileySimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
83.6%
Nick Gasser 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
83.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Landen Akers for 26 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
84.9%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 47Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
84.1%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-2
84.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
82.7%
Corey Dunn punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andre Williams at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
82.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 7 Kato Nelson fumbled, forced by JaQuan Bailey, recovered by Akron Trevor Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 18
OWN 7
+11
82.9%
Kato Nelson run for 11 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
82.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 3 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0983% → 90%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
83.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for no gain to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+13
81.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 13 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
84.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 24 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
84.9%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
84.8%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+7
83.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 7 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
90.2%
Connor Assalley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
85.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett, broken up by Greg EisworthSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:0791% → 91%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.8%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
91.1%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
91.2%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
90.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 7 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.6%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Eaton, Matthew, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (DAILEY, Darian) 15 yards to the AKRON18, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the Akron 15Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
91.6%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 16Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
91.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
90.9%
Connor Assalley 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.7%
Deltron Sands run for 2 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+17
90.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 17 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
90.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonah Morris for 5 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
90.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius Smith, broken up by Greg EisworthSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
90.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.6%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
92.8%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
92.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
92.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 17 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.3%
AKRON Penalty, offside defense (Davon'te Jest) to the Akron 47Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+10
93.5%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
93.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-5
93.8%
Zeb Noland sacked by Jamal Davis II for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 36Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+1
93.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 1 yd Sheldon Croney Jr. fumbled, forced by Jamal Davis II, recovered by Akron Davon'te JestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Marcel Spears Jr.Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
95.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-6
96.0%
Kato Nelson sacked by JaQuan Bailey and O'Rien Vance for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3796% → 98%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
96.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the Akron 22Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+1
96.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+1
95.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the Akron 20Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
98.3%
Connor Assalley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Jones, Keontae) 5 yards to the AKRON30, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
97.5%
Kato Nelson run for 9 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+11
97.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 14:56
Connor Assalley 29 yd FG GOOD
+6.8
FG · Q2 5:21
Nick Gasser 45 yd FG GOOD
-5.3
TD · Q2 0:30
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com