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Oklahoma 37 at Iowa State 27

ISU
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-1.3ISU 14.5%Austin Seibert 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 24 · Q3 3:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:20 · Austin Seibert 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior−16.4Home team on offense−17.6Score differential−7.3Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:15: Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 51 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +6.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:48: Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 57 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +8.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:20: Trey Sermon run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:40: David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +10.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:43: Connor Assalley 21 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +7.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:10ISU 4th & 5 at OU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22OU 4th & 4 at ISU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15ISU 4th & 1 at OU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:38ISU 4th & 9 at OU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:24ISU 4th & 24 at ISU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:35OU 4th & 17 at OU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:20OU 4th & 9 at ISU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:38ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 33, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:37OU 4th & 9 at OU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:15ISU 4th & 11 at OU 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:43ISU 4th & 4 at OU 4, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−8.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:51OU 4th & 19 at ISU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:43OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:15ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:47OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:05OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:48ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:20OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:40ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4010% → 12%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
10.3%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
10.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 25 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
10.9%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
11.0%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 2 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
11.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Chase Allen for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
11.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:3889% → 87%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
11.5%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-10
11.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Powers) to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+9
11.8%
Kyler Murray run for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
11.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 6 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
11.9%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
12.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+48
12.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 48 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
12.4%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.5%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to A.D. MillerSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
12.8%
Austin Seibert 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:3113% → 13%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
13.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 6 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+16
13.3%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.7%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
13.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 8 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-10
14.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Seonbuchner) to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
13.5%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
13.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:4286% → 87%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
14.2%
Marcelias Sutton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 8Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+7
14.5%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
14.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 10 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
12.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:0212% → 15%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
12.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Chase Allen for 21 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
12.7%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
50
0
13.1%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Landen AkersSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 6
50
+5
13.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 5 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
13.0%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
13.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 11 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
13.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+17
13.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 17 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.2%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
14.2%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-3
14.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
14.9%
Connor Assalley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
14.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 28 yds Grant Calcaterra fumbled, recovered by IowSt Richard Bowens III , return for 2 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
20.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 51 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1381% → 86%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
19.0%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
19.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 9 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
19.0%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
19.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 15 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
18.6%
Trey Sermon run for 14 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
18.4%
Kyler Murray run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
18.6%
Kyler Murray run for 9 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
18.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to A.D. Miller for 17 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
19.2%
Kyler Murray run for 1 yd to the IowSt 5Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 3:0616% → 17%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
16.8%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
16.8%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.8%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Jalen MartinSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
17.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-11
17.2%
Zeb Noland sacked by Kenneth Murray for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 19
OWN 31
-5
16.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
16.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 48 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for no gain to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5583% → 91%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.7%
Marcelias Sutton run for 4 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
16.6%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
15.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marcelias Sutton for 3 yds to the Okla 44 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 17
OWN 34
+3
16.5%
Kyler Murray run for 3 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+19
16.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 19 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
14.6%
Marcelias Sutton run for 5 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
14.4%
Kyler Murray run for 6 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
14.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 26 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Myles Tease for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Kene Nwangwu run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:1089% → 89%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
11.0%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
10.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 8 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
10.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-1
10.8%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 17
OWN 35
0
11.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
11.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds , Tarique Milton returns for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:3211% → 20%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
11.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+20
11.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 5 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
20.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 57 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1083% → 91%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
17.3%
Marcelias Sutton run for 7 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
16.6%
Marcelias Sutton run for 5 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
16.6%
Kyler Murray run for 6 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+11
16.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marcelias Sutton for 11 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
16.5%
Marcelias Sutton run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (De'Monte Ruth) to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
8.7%
Trey Sermon run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2011% → 24%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to David Montgomery for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
11.4%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
11.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 9 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+16
12.0%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
12.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 30 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
12.6%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
12.7%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.6%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:1582% → 86%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
17.7%
Marcelias Sutton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+7
19.0%
Trey Sermon run for 7 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
17.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 12 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+32
16.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 32 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
16.3%
Marcelias Sutton run for 1 yd to the IowSt 14Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
16.4%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant Calcaterra, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
15.8%
Kyler Murray run for no gain to the IowSt 14Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
14.5%
Austin Seibert 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3214% → 14%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
14.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 2 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
14.5%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
14.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4386% → 84%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
14.3%
T.J. Pledger run for 1 yd to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
14.4%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
15.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
16.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:4714% → 22%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+37
13.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Landen Akers for 37 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
50
+2
16.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
16.6%
Noland, Zeb pass incomplete to Montgomery, David, PENALTY OKLAHOMA roughing passer (Gallimore, Neville) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
18.0%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
15.7%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+16
14.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 16 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
17.9%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Okla 17Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+11
17.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
17.9%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 9Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
18.1%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 14Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
14.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 10 yds to the Okla 4Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
22.1%
Connor Assalley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 7:3984% → 93%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
16.3%
Kyler Murray run for 15 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
13.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 2 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
13.1%
Kyler Murray run for 15 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
12.6%
Marcelias Sutton run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
12.7%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
12.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dru Samia) to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+13
12.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 13 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
11.3%
Kyler Murray run for 2 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+8
10.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Myles Tease for 8 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
9.7%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-9
9.5%
Kyler Murray sacked by Jamahl Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 18
OPP 24
-1
10.2%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+42
7.1%
Austin Seibert 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 34 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Tarique Milton for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
6.3%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
5.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 5 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
5.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
6.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Mueller) to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
5.5%
Zeb Noland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+11
4.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
5.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
6.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
5.7%
Zeb Noland pass intercepted Parnell Motley return for 7 yds to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.1%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:40
David Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 11:48
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 57 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q3 9:20
Trey Sermon run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com