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BAY

Baylor 35 at Texas Tech 24

TTU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:31 · Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense+1.5Pregame prior+5.1Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:10: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 41 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 8 (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +5.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:11: Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +12.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:57: John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +14.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +15.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 12:41: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Johncarlo Valentin) to the TexTc 8 (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +15.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 0:27TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:23TTU 4th & 13 at BAY 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:31BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:31BAY 4th & 12 at TTU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:38TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:01BAY 4th & 19 at midfield, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:11TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:10TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:10BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15TTU 4th & 1 at BAY 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−2.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:38BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:04TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:54BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:10BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:23TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:11BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:57BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54TTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:41BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5658% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
57.8%
McLane Carter pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
57.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
57.8%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 7 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
57.8%
McLane Carter pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 6 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
57.8%
McLane Carter sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+4
57.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+54
59.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 54 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
24 plays · 75 yds · 9:1041% → 43%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
59.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
58.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
58.7%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
58.8%
Brewer,Charlie rush for no gain to the BU47, PENALTY TTU substitution infraction 5 yards to the TTU48, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+5
58.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+10
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
58.7%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
58.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 8 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
58.5%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
58.5%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Mims,Denzel for 9 yards to the TTU8 (Dorsey, V.), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Blackmar,Blake) 5 yards to the TTU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+6
58.6%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-7
58.5%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jordyn Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 16
OPP 23
+19
58.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 19 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
58.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Jordyn BrooksSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
58.5%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:2759% → 60%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
58.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
59.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+16
59.4%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 16 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
60.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 18 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.4%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
60.3%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
59.8%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
60.2%
Clayton Hatfield 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1740% → 46%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
59.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Denzel Mims) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Fields, D.) 15 yards to the BU40, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
59.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 19 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
54.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 41 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 8 (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4756% → 63%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
55.7%
McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for 16 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.1%
McLane Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
56.3%
Carter, McLane pass incomplete to Thompson, Donta, PENALTY BU pass interference (Miller,Chris) 15 yards to the BU44, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
57.6%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
57.6%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+32
57.4%
McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for 32 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
62.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 7 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
61.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 4 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 15
OWN 4
0
61.3%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Jah'Shawn Johnson return for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
62.3%
Carter, KeSean rush for 28 yards to the BU10 (Miller,Chris), PENALTY TTU holding (Thompson, Donta) 10 yards to the BU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+8
61.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
61.8%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-1
61.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
59.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
61.0%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
60.6%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
60.8%
Koby Bullard run for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
61.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
60.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+19
59.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 19 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
58.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+5
59.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
58.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-7
58.9%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Kolin Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
61.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
62.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-2
62.2%
McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+12
61.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 12 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine Wesley, broken up by Blake LynchSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
62.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
61.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
60.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10INT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3640% → 34%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
59.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 16 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
59.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
59.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-5
59.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-12
60.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Riko Jeffers for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 19
50
+75
66.0%
Jalan McClendon pass intercepted Vaughnte Dorsey return for 75 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4939% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
61.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 39 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
58.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
58.4%
John Lovett run for 8 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
58.2%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
57.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 8 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+12
57.0%
John Lovett run for 12 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
49.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
49.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine Wesley, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
49.4%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
48.2%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Ja'Deion High, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
47.6%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3953% → 70%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
47.3%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+7
46.6%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
45.9%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
45.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
45.3%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Riko Jeffers) to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
44.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the TexTc 25 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Denzel Mims) to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 19
OPP 35
+27
44.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds Denzel Mims fumbled, forced by Damarcus Fields, recovered by Bayl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
44.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4734% → 30%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
34.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 7 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+10
35.7%
McLane Carter pass complete to Donta Thompson for 10 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
35.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-15
35.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 22
OPP 33
+12
34.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 12 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
34.0%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
30.2%
Clayton Hatfield 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
29.9%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
29.2%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
29.5%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+7
29.9%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
29.3%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+39
30.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 54 yds , De'Quan Bowman returns for 39 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:2131% → 49%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
30.8%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
30.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 12 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
31.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
31.5%
McLane Carter pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
31.3%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 8 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
33.1%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
33.0%
McLane Carter pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
31.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
29.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
33.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 5 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
33.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+5
31.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
33.1%
Demarcus Felton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
48.6%
McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1362% → 83%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
37.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 37 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
34.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
32.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 15 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
32.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyler Henderson for 8 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-5
32.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Christoph Henle) to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
16.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Johncarlo Valentin) to the TexTc 8 (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18INT
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:5820% → 16%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
20.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
20.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
21.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
22.1%
Demarcus Felton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
20.5%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
50
+6
22.7%
McLane Carter pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 6 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+10
24.0%
Carter, McLane pass incomplete to Vasher, T.J., PENALTY BU holding (Texada,Raleigh) 10 yards to the BU34, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
25.3%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to T.J. Vasher, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
25.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
16.4%
McLane Carter pass intercepted Raleigh Texada return for no gain to the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 5:5886% → 93%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
13.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 4 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+6
13.9%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
13.5%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+10
13.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 10 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
13.2%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+7
13.3%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
12.3%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
12.2%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
12.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
12.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-5
6.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Christoph Henle) to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
7.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jah'Shawn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
7.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:105% → 4%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
5.1%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 15 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
5.5%
McLane Carter run for 1 yd to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-8
5.6%
McLane Carter sacked by BJ Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+19
3.2%
McLane Carter pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 19 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
3.9%
McLane Carter pass intercepted Blake Lynch return for 15 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4595% → 97%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
4.6%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
3.1%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+15
3.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Johncarlo Valentin) to the TexTc 8 (Connor Martin KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q4 14:54
McLane Carter pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 9:57
John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com