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TCU

TCU 16 at Baylor 9

BAY
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:44 · Charlie Brewer run for 15 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 6:25: Connor Martin 33 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +6.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:02: Jalen Reagor run for 37 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +19.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q4 14:07: TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Emari Demercado , return for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38 — TCU win probability +9.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:15: Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 13 — TCU win probability +6.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:31: Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:31 — TCU win probability +6.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:11TCU 4th & 8 at BAY 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11BAY 4th & 22 at BAY 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:33TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:44BAY 4th & 11 at TCU 32, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05BAY 4th & 8 at TCU 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:14TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:05BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:35TCU 4th & 15 at BAY 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:25BAY 4th & 13 at TCU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−3.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:02TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−6.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−6.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−3.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:07TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 46, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−4.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:50BAY 4th & 21 at TCU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:06BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:31BAY 4th & 20 at BAY 38, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:02BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:05TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:02TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
54.4%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
54.4%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 John Lovett fumbled, forced by Ben Banogu, recovered by TCU Markell SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1746% → 46%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
54.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+5
54.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
54.4%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+2
54.4%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.4%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
54.4%
Michael Collins pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+5
54.5%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 5 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
54.4%
Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
54.5%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 16 yards to the BU41 (Evans, Arico), PENALTY BU pass interference (Hurd,Jalen) 12 yards to the BU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
54.4%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
54.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for no gain to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
54.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
54.1%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+6
54.4%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-3
54.1%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+5
54.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
54.2%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4754% → 58%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
54.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
54.6%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
54.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+4
54.8%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
54.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
55.3%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+15
55.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 15 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
55.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
57.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
56.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+4
56.6%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
56.6%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-6
55.8%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 37 Grayson Muehlstein fumbled,Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
56.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
57.2%
TEAM punt blocked by , punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 31 blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1858% → 59%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
58.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+4
57.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
57.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+15
56.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 15 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
58.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.8%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by TCU Corey Bethley , return for 4 yds to the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:5043% → 47%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
57.4%
Darius Anderson run for 17 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
57.3%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+65
52.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 65 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
52.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 31 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
54.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
54.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
54.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh Fleeks, broken up by Arico EvansSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
52.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, downed at the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
52.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+4
52.9%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 14 yds to the TCU 20 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (Jaelan Austin) to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+3
52.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-5
53.2%
TCU Penalty, delay of game (Grayson Muehlstein) to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+10
53.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
52.4%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
52.5%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-2
53.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
54.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.3%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
52.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
50.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
51.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2549% → 50%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
50.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+13
50.9%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 13 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
50.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
48.9%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
49.6%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-3
50.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+6
49.4%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
50.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4046% → 45%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
46.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
46.2%
Ebner,Trestan rush for 2 yards to the BU21 (Johnson, Jawuan), PENALTY BU holding (Blackmar,Blake) 9 yards to the BU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+4
46.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+8
45.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
45.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0455% → 54%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
45.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
46.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+5
46.4%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0054% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
46.3%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
46.7%
Jalen Reagor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, downed at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
49.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
49.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 18
OWN 23
0
49.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Markell Simmons BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 18
OWN 23
-3
48.9%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+20
47.5%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Trevon Moehrig-Woodard return for 20 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
45.2%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
45.3%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-8
45.7%
Grayson Muehlstein sacked by Henry Black for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
49.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:3848% → 56%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
48.4%
John Lovett run for 14 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Arico Evans) to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.2%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
51.8%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the BAYLOR 47 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, illegal use of hands (Arico Evans) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
54.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
54.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+11
52.4%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
54.2%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-5
54.1%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, QB hurry by Banogu, Ben, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Lawrence,P.) 5 yards to the TCU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
53.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+4
49.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
56.3%
Connor Martin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2347% → 70%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.4%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
53.4%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
54.7%
Muehlstein, G. pass complete to Barber, Taye for 3 yards to the TCU30 (Lynch,James), PENALTY BU offside defense (Roberts,Greg) 5 yards to the TCU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
53.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 22 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
49.3%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
48.8%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
49.9%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Pro Wells for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+37
30.2%
Jalen Reagor run for 37 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:0235% → 34%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
34.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
33.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 16 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
37.9%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
36.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
39.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-2
36.6%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-8
34.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jawuan Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
24.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Emari Demercado , return for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+14
26.4%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 14 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
24.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 2 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
26.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-8
29.2%
Josh Fleeks run for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 18
OWN 6
+23
28.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 23 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
30.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 22 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
34.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
37.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, illegal formation (Marques Jones) to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+4
32.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
36.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-10
33.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ridwan Issahaku for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 21
OPP 43
0
28.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:0078% → 88%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
22.0%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+14
21.7%
Emari Demercado run for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
20.9%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+8
20.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Pro Wells for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
17.8%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
16.6%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
15.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
15.4%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+5
16.5%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+1
16.3%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
11.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 29 yds, downed at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 1:3516% → 9%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
15.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+10
14.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
16.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Arico Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+15
15.6%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Gladney, Jeff) 15 yards to the BU48, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
19.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 13 yards to the TCU39, out-of-bounds (Mathis, Ochaun), PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the BU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
16.4%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
16.2%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 20
OWN 38
0
15.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
9.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:02
Jalen Reagor run for 37 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)
-19.6
FUMBLE · Q4 14:07
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Emari Demercado , return for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38
-9.5
FG · Q3 6:25
Connor Martin 33 yd FG GOOD
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com