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BAY

Baylor 14 at Iowa State 28

ISU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:54 · Corey Dunn punt for 53 yds , Pooh Stricklin returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+14.5Score differential+7.3Garbage-time factor+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:34: Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +3.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:56: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +8.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:25: Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds for a TD (Deshaunte Jones pass to Brock Purdy for Two-Point Conversion) — ISU win probability +6.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:25: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +8.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:49: Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the IowSt 16 — ISU win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 26 at ISU 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:04BAY 4th & 8 at ISU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:08BAY 4th & 8 at ISU 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:54ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:44BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:38ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 20, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:32BAY 4th & 5 at ISU 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:32BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 10, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:19ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:29BAY 4th & 4 at ISU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:29BAY 4th & 10 at ISU 12, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:25ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:18BAY 4th & 10 at ISU 15, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:47ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:34ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:56BAY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:25ISU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:25BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 47 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
84.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
84.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
84.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 15 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
84.8%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+10
84.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
84.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+10
84.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 10 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+17
84.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 17 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
84.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-10
84.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY BU holding (Henle,Christoph) 10 yards to the ISU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 23
-8
84.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mike Rose and Jamahl Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 26
OPP 31
0
84.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 26
OPP 31
0
84.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 31 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3482% → 84%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
82.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 16 yds Deshaunte Jones fumbled, forced by Raleigh Texada, recovered by IowSt Deshaunte Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
82.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 7 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
82.9%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
82.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 10 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
82.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 16 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
83.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
82.9%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
82.9%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+19
82.6%
Brock Purdy run for 19 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
83.0%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
83.0%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 6Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-5
82.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Hakeem Butler) to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
84.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:3517% → 18%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
83.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete, broken up by Willie HarveySimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
82.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
82.4%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+28
82.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 28 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
81.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
81.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-5
81.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
81.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
82.1%
Connor Martin 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3083% → 88%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
82.8%
David Montgomery run for 21 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
83.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 8 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
83.8%
Brock Purdy run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
83.8%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+19
83.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 19 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
83.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.6%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:2114% → 13%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
86.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+14
86.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 14 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
87.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-10
86.8%
Brewer,Charlie rush for 13 yards to the ISU45, PENALTY BU holding (Galvin,Connor) 10 yards to the BU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+12
87.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 12 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
86.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+23
87.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 23 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
85.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
85.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
85.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
86.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
87.1%
Connor Martin 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 4:0388% → 92%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
87.7%
Brock Purdy run for 11 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
88.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
88.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 8 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
89.8%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
90.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+4
90.1%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
90.3%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
90.5%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+12
90.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 12 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
90.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
91.7%
Connor Assalley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
89.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
91.0%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
91.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+2
90.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 53 yds , Pooh Stricklin returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
91.1%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Hurd) to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+6
91.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
91.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
91.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1992% → 96%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
92.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Chris Miller) to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
92.5%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
92.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Hakeem Butler) to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 15
OWN 0
+1
92.0%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+1
92.4%
Kene Nwangwu run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+11
92.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 11 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
96.3%
Connor Assalley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 7:364% → 14%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
96.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 13 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
96.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+1
96.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+15
96.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 15 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
95.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 25 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
95.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+16
95.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
94.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
94.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
95.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
95.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.9%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:2493% → 99%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
92.7%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 3
50
+4
92.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+38
92.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 38 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds for a TD (Deshaunte Jones pass to Brock Purdy for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:542% → 10%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 8 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+13
98.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+23
98.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 23 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
97.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 13 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
95.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 17 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-8
95.4%
Brock Purdy sacked by BJ Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+4
94.7%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
92.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
92.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
92.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 15 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
91.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+2
92.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+16
92.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 16 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-6
91.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the IowSt 20 BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Charlie Brewer) to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+23
92.4%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 23 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Marques Jones, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
90.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
91.9%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 10
OPP 12
0
92.4%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:2497% → 98%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
96.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-1
97.4%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+25
97.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 25 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.0%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
98.0%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+3
98.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
98.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Pooh Stricklin at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 63 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.6%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by Richard Bowens IIISimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+43
98.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Chris Platt for 43 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.2%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+15
98.1%
McClendon,Jalan pass intercepted by Lewis, Braxton at the BU0, Lewis, Braxton return to the BU17 (Platt,Chris), PENALTY ISU personal foul (Tongamoa, Kamilo) 15 yards to the ISU15, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
98.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
98.3%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
98.4%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:56
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 12:25
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 0:25
Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds for a TD (Deshaunte Jones pass to Brock Purdy for Two-Point Conversion)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com