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OKST

Oklahoma State 31 at Baylor 35

BAY
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:44 · Drew Galitz punt for 22 yds, downed at the OKSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−3.9Pregame prior−3.5Garbage-time factor−1.9Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:44: Tylan Wallace run for 6 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +16.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:12: John Lovett run for 75 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +18.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:55: Justice Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +22.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:43: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 36 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +20.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:07: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +60.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 3:16BAY 4th & 9 at OKST 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−3.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:16OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:51BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47OKST 4th & 15 at BAY 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:42OKST 4th & 2 at BAY 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:42BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:24OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:27OKST 4th & 10 at BAY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38BAY 4th & 3 at OKST 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:26OKST 4th & 5 at BAY 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00OKST 4th & 3 at BAY 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−2.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:37OKST 4th & 2 at BAY 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−4.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:47OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:17BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:44OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:25OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:12BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:55OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:43BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:07BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Marques Jones for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
39.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
39.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+21
39.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 21 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
39.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+13
39.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
39.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
39.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the OKSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.3%
Jalan McClendon pass intercepted, touchback. Rodarius Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:0159% → 62%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
40.7%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Ira Lewis and Blake Lynch for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
40.7%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
40.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 10 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
40.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+31
40.7%
Justice Hill run for 31 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
40.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Chuba HubbardSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
40.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 14 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
40.1%
Taylor Cornelius run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
40.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
40.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
38.0%
Taylor Cornelius run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:3139% → 39%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.0%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
39.4%
Josh Fleeks run for 17 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
39.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
39.8%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
39.8%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Brendon Evers for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+15
39.4%
McClendon,Jalan pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Green, A.J.) 15 yards to the OSU31, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
40.1%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
40.1%
Lovett,John rush for no gain to the OSU20 (Bundage, Calvin), PENALTY OSU face mask (Bundage, Calvin) 10 yards to the OSU10, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the OKSt 9Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
40.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
39.3%
Connor Martin 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
38.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
38.3%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Bravvion Roy for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+3
38.7%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 8
OWN 33
-3
38.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 55 yds , R.J. Sneed returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5738% → 36%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
38.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
38.1%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+6
37.4%
Jalan McClendon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.1%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Marques Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
36.9%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
36.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 62 yds, downed at the OKSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:0863% → 62%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
37.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 18 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
36.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
35.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
35.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
35.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Braydon Johnson for no gain to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-5
35.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
36.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+47
38.0%
Matt Ammendola 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Bravvion Roy N/A return for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3038% → 50%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
37.5%
Josh Fleeks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
37.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (A.J. Green) to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
38.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
39.4%
John Lovett run for 16 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
40.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 27 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (A.J. Green) to the OKSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:3555% → 59%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Justice Hill for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
43.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
42.8%
Justice Hill run for 11 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
42.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+20
42.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 20 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
41.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
42.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
41.3%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.3%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
40.6%
Matt Ammendola 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
41.3%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
41.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+2
40.0%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the Bayl 18 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
39.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5159% → 44%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
40.6%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
41.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
42.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron Johnson, broken up by BJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+7
55.6%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Trestan Ebner return for 7 yds for a TD Drew Galitz kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST down Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Justice Hill for 4 yds to the OKSt 40 Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 5 yds to the OKSt 45 Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY BU pass interference (Thomas,Derrek) 15 yards to the BU40, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Bayl 33 (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 1:5746% → 43%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
53.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Justice Hill for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
51.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 5 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
51.7%
Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY BU pass interference (Thomas,Derrek) 15 yards to the BU40, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
50.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
51.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
51.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
54.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
57.3%
Matt Ammendola 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
56.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
53.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
54.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+4
55.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 4 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
55.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 60 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
55.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
55.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
53.7%
McClendon,Jalan pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan (Green, A.J.), PENALTY OSU roughing passer (Carter, Trey) 15 yards to the BU38, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
56.6%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
55.4%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
55.9%
McClendon,Jalan pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan, PENALTY OSU offside defense (Smith, Enoch) 5 yards to the BU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
56.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+21
57.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 21 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
59.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-2
59.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 0
0
53.8%
McClendon,Jalan pass incomplete to Hurd,Jalen, PENALTY BU holding off-setting, PENALTY OSU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+4
57.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
55.9%
Drew Galitz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:3341% → 64%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
58.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 12 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron Johnson, broken up by Raleigh TexadaSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
58.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+23
60.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 23 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.5%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
54.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 15 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
52.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 9 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
52.8%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
52.8%
Hill, Justice rush for 4 yards to the BU10 (Johnston,Clay), PENALTY OSU illegal block (Keyes, Marcus) 15 yards to the BU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+20
54.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 20 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
52.8%
Taylor Cornelius run for 3 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
36.1%
Tylan Wallace run for 6 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
42.2%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by A.J. GreenSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
40.1%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
40.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
39.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 22 yds, downed at the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3564% → 82%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
36.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
36.0%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
36.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+4
36.6%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+24
37.1%
Tylan Wallace pass complete to Taylor Cornelius for 24 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
32.0%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
18.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
39.9%
John Lovett run for 75 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
17 plays · 79 yds · 6:1762% → 89%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
38.1%
Justice Hill run for 18 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
34.9%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
34.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
33.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+8
34.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 8 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
34.0%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
34.3%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
36.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
31.7%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by James Lynch and Bravvion Roy for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+14
33.7%
Justice Hill run for 14 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+10
33.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 10 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
31.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
31.7%
Taylor Cornelius run for 7 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
33.5%
Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY BU pass interference (Texada,Raleigh) 2 yards to the BU2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.2%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:1214% → 39%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
13.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+26
13.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 11 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (A.J. Green) to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
15.0%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+11
13.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
16.3%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+18
17.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, personal foul (Calvin Bundage) to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
18.6%
Lovett,John rush for 3 yards to the OSU23 (Team), PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the OSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+36
38.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 36 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:0674% → 88%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.0%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
24.0%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
22.8%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
22.7%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+11
22.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
21.5%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
14.9%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+2
15.3%
Taylor Cornelius run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-9
11.9%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Chris Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:2429% → 96%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
29.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
32.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
32.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+16
33.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 16 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
29.3%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Jones,Marques, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Rodriguez, M.) 15 yards to the OSU8, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
35.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
35.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:07
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
+60.5
TD · Q4 8:55
Justice Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q4 5:43
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 36 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com