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BAY

Baylor 17 at Texas 23

TEX
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:44 · Drew Galitz punt for 56 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 17 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+13.7Garbage-time factor+2.1Score differential+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:08: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 8 (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +2.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:21: Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:12: Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:01: Cameron Dicker 47 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:33: Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +10.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:03TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57TEX 4th & 6 at BAY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56TEX 4th & 3 at BAY 18, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:29BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:31TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03BAY 4th & 10 at TEX 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:40BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:38BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:40TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:44BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−9.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:35BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:51TEX 4th & 7 at BAY 34, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:46BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:43TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:08BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:21TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:12TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:33BAY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 5:4884% → 83%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
83.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
83.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+16
83.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+5
83.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Procedure (5 Yards) to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+7
83.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
83.7%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+8
83.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
83.5%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+3
83.2%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
83.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+3
83.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-6
83.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
82.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+12
82.7%
Shane Buechele run for 12 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
82.9%
Cameron Dicker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4917% → 22%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
82.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
82.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
82.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 17 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
82.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
81.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 6 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
81.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+14
81.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 14 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
80.9%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-10
80.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 21
OPP 29
+10
80.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 10 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
78.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 8 (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0079% → 79%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.9%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
79.4%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.9%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
78.7%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
79.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
78.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
79.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 18 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
79.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
79.3%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
78.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tre Watson for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
79.0%
Cameron Dicker 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2222% → 21%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Craig WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+51
78.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3578% → 77%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
78.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
78.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
77.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Andrew Beck for 8 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
77.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Trevor White at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4123% → 23%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
77.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
77.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-3
77.0%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
77.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5879% → 76%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
78.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
78.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-12
78.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Clay Johnston for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
76.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 30 yds, downed at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:1924% → 30%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
75.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+26
75.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 26 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
74.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+16
73.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
71.7%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 42 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+15
72.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 15 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
70.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
70.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-5
70.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
70.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+46
70.3%
Connor Martin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2872% → 81%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+28
73.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
80.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3521% → 19%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-3
80.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:2479% → 87%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
78.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+29
79.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 14 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Touching (15 Yards) to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
80.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
80.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
80.6%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+18
80.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 18 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.3%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0914% → 14%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
86.0%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
86.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:3286% → 91%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+2
86.4%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
86.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+17
85.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to D'Shawn Jamison for 17 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
87.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+47
90.7%
Cameron Dicker 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0613% → 12%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
87.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
87.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 10 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
87.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-2
87.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Gary Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
88.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4189% → 89%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
88.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-5
89.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+3
88.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+12
89.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.1%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
89.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Andrew Beck for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
89.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 56 yds, downed at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3911% → 10%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
89.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 8 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-3
88.6%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
89.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+66
90.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 56 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 17 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.8%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Raleigh Texada return for no gain to the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:5512% → 22%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
88.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 4
50
+45
89.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 45 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
88.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
88.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Texas 2Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:4782% → 84%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+30
83.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 30 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
84.5%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
85.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
85.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
85.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
84.4%
Cameron Dicker 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3919% → 19%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.8%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
80.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
80.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
77.9%
John Lovett run for 8 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
76.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
77.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
77.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
79.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-4
80.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 6:2585% → 90%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
85.2%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
86.6%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
86.1%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
87.7%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+2
87.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+10
87.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
87.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
89.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
89.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
89.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
90.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
91.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
90.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
89.7%
Cameron Dicker 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4416% → 13%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
84.1%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
83.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
84.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-5
86.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
87.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5590% → 95%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
90.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
90.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
91.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 55 yds, downed at the Bayl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24Uncategorized
13 plays · 80 yds · 1:3110% → 21%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+20
90.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 20 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
88.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
88.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
83.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+11
82.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
78.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
78.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
79.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
78.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
78.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.2
TD · Q3 4:33
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 4:21
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com