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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Cameron Dicker 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:08: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 8 (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +2.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:21: Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:12: Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:01: Cameron Dicker 47 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:33: Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +10.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:03TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.7%57% to convertField goal81.6%−0.156% to makePunt81.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:57TEX 4th & 6 at BAY 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snapGo for it81.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call81.1%70% to makePunt80.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:56TEX 4th & 3 at BAY 18, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call76.4%−0.279% to makePunt73.8%−2.8average punt
- Q2 14:29BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.6%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 12:35TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 34, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snapGo for it75.0%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q2 10:44BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 16, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it23.4%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%average punt
- Q2 9:31TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 48, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snapGo for it73.1%−1.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.4%average punt
- Q2 5:03BAY 4th & 10 at TEX 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snapGo for it28.4%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call28.9%62% to makePunt25.3%−3.6average punt
- Q2 3:40BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it21.6%−1.033% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q3 11:38BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 47, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q3 8:40TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 26, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%average punt
- Q3 6:44BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 18, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q3 1:32TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 17, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.540% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%80% to makePunt72.1%−9.3average punt
- Q4 12:35BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 49, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it20.3%−2.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q4 5:51TEX 4th & 7 at BAY 34, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.2%37% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%−0.347% to makePunt86.3%−1.8average punt
- Q4 4:46BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q4 1:43TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 42, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:08BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.5%97% to makeGo for two22.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:21TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:33BAY Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.3%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1FG18 plays · 52 yds · 5:4884% → 83%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
83.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+16
83.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+8
83.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+3
83.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4917% → 22%
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
82.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
82.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 17 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
82.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 6 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 21
OPP 29
+10
80.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 10 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
78.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 8 (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0079% → 79%
Q1 1:19
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
78.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
79.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 18 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
78.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tre Watson for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2222% → 21%
Q2 14:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+51
78.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3578% → 77%
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
78.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
77.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Andrew Beck for 8 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
77.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Trevor White at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4123% → 23%
TEXDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5879% → 76%
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-12
78.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Clay Johnston for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG13 plays · 51 yds · 4:1924% → 30%
Q2 8:37
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+26
75.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 26 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+16
73.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
71.7%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 42 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+15
72.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 15 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2872% → 81%
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+28
73.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
80.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3521% → 19%
TEXDrive 11TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:2479% → 87%
Q2 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+29
79.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 14 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Touching (15 Yards) to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.3%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0914% → 14%
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 18 yds · 0:3286% → 91%
BAYDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0613% → 12%
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
87.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 10 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-2
87.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Gary Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
88.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4189% → 89%
BAYDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3911% → 10%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
89.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 8 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
89.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+66
90.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 56 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 17 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.8%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Raleigh Texada return for no gain to the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD8 plays · 56 yds · 1:5512% → 22%
Q3 5:26
3RD & 4
50
+45
89.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 45 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19MISSED FG9 plays · 48 yds · 2:4782% → 84%
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
85.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3919% → 19%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
80.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-4
80.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21MISSED FG15 plays · 49 yds · 6:2585% → 90%
Q4 10:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+10
87.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
87.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 15 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
89.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
89.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4416% → 13%
Q4 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
87.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5590% → 95%
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
90.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
91.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24Uncategorized13 plays · 80 yds · 1:3110% → 21%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+20
90.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 20 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
88.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
78.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.2
TD · Q3 4:33
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 4:21
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+7.4