Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 34 at Baylor 37

BAY
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:21 · Connor Martin 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+4.5Home team on offense+10.8Garbage-time factor+3.9Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:38: Skylar Thompson run for 52 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK) — KSU win probability +27.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:32: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 21 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +27.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:41: Craig Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +26.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:26: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK) — KSU win probability +37.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:08: Connor Martin 29 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +35.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:17BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:26BAY 4th & 19 at KSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:07KSU 4th & 1 at BAY 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:40BAY 4th & 10 at KSU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:36KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34KSU 4th & 20 at KSU 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−4.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:11KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:21BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:51BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:08BAY 4th & 6 at KSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−10.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−34.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:04KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:47BAY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:50KSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:28BAY Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51KSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:38KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:32BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:41BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−1.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:4366% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
65.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
65.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
65.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+16
65.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 16 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
65.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+5
65.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
65.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-1
65.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
65.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by Johnathan DurhamSimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
66.0%
Connor Martin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1334% → 36%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
65.7%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
65.9%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 3 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
65.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 7 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
64.0%
Alex Barnes run for 55 yds for a TD (Nick McLellan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3364% → 63%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
64.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 16 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
64.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 16 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
65.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+14
65.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 14 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
65.2%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 14
OPP 27
-5
64.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
64.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 19
OPP 32
0
64.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+50
62.7%
Connor Martin 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1937% → 38%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
63.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 8 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+7
62.7%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
62.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 11 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
62.5%
Skylar Thompson sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 18
50
+13
62.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 13 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
62.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-6
62.2%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 38 Alex Barnes fumbled, recovered by KanSt Alex BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:2263% → 64%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
63.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 17 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
64.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 15 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
64.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
64.6%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+12
64.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
64.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
64.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
63.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
64.3%
Connor Martin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6INT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
63.3%
Dalvin Warmack run for 2 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
63.3%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
63.7%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Jairon McVea return for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3266% → 71%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
65.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
65.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+8
65.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
66.4%
Craig Williams run for 14 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
66.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
66.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 8 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+6
65.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the KanSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
66.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1130% → 29%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.3%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
69.6%
Alex Barnes run for 12 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
69.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-9
69.5%
Skylar Thompson sacked by BJ Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Andrew Hicks punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
70.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
70.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
70.1%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Duke Shelley return for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:3932% → 42%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
68.5%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
58.3%
Alex Barnes run for 34 yds for a TD (Nick McLellan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11INT
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0062% → 66%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
62.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
62.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
61.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
62.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Wyatt Hubert for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+12
61.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 12 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+37
63.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 37 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.0%
Trestan Ebner pass intercepted, touchback. Kendall Adams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5839% → 39%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
60.8%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
60.9%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.8%
Skylar Thompson run for no gain to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-10
61.1%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Henry Black for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
60.7%
Andrew Hicks punt for 48 yds , Trevor White returns for no gain to the Bayl 26 Trevor White fumbled, recovered by Bayl Trevor WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:2160% → 64%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
59.5%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 24 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by Bayl Charlie Brewer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
59.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
58.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
60.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+17
62.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
62.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+11
62.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
64.2%
Connor Martin 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:3263% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
62.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 18 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Brewer pass for Two-Point Conversion) KANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16MISSED FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 6:1730% → 27%
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
70.0%
Barnes, Alex rush for 36 yards to the BU39 (Johnston,Clay;Miller,Chris), PENALTY KS holding (Beecham, Abdul) 10 yards to the KS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
70.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
69.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 15 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.4%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
69.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 9 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+16
67.3%
Alex Barnes run for 16 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
65.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+11
68.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 11 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+4
70.6%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.0%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
69.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-2
70.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
72.8%
Nick McLellan 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17MISSED FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 5:5075% → 78%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
74.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+9
74.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 9 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
74.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+16
74.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
75.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 6
50
+5
76.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Wyatt Hubert) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
76.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
77.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
76.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
77.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-8
77.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Trey Dishon for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+7
75.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
78.1%
Connor Martin 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3025% → 48%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
75.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 2 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
76.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 9 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Kalon BarnesSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
74.6%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 40Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+12
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
51.8%
Alex Barnes run for 48 yds for a TD (Nick McLellan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
60.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Patrick Lawrence) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
59.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Wyatt Hubert and Reggie Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
58.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for no gain to the KanSt 32 Isaiah Zuber fumbled, recovered by KanSt Isaiah ZuberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:2145% → 75%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
55.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 8 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
52.2%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
52.2%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
52.6%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+52
25.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 52 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:0633% → 68%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
33.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
35.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
35.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
38.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 9 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+2
38.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
40.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 21 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.9%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
54.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
56.1%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:0561% → 92%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
60.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
62.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 18 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
65.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete, PENALTY KS roughing passer (Walker, Reggie) 15 yards to the KS21, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
91.8%
Craig Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1513% → 56%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.3%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
86.3%
Alex Barnes run for 24 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
83.4%
Alex Barnes run for 15 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
82.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
44.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:1859% → 95%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
59.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Da'Quan Patton) to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
64.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
64.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
65.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the KanSt 36 JaMycal Hasty fumbled, forced by Justin Hughes, recovered by Bayl JaMycal HastySimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
65.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
67.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
67.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
67.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-1
65.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-2
62.6%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 11Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
94.9%
Connor Martin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0717% → 22%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
83.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 26 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:26
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)
-37.7
FG · Q4 0:08
Connor Martin 29 yd FG GOOD
+35.3
TD · Q4 10:38
Skylar Thompson run for 52 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)
-27.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com