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KU

Kansas 7 at Baylor 26

BAY
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:17 · Drew Galitz punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+31.1Pregame prior+1.8Score differential+18.6Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 39 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +6.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:32: Connor Martin 45 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:37: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 34 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT MISSED) — BAY win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:32: Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 10 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK) — KU win probability +7.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:00: Connor Martin 27 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14KU 4th & 16 at KU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:32KU 4th & 22 at BAY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52KU 4th & 5 at KU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:32BAY 4th & 12 at KU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:47KU 4th & 19 at KU 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:47KU 4th & 3 at KU 27, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:54BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 35, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:00BAY 4th & 5 at KU 10, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55KU 4th & 9 at BAY 27, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 31, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:31KU 4th & 11 at KU 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:17BAY 4th & 8 at KU 41, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:09KU 4th & 9 at KU 14, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:35BAY 4th & 28 at BAY 43, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:35BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:37BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:32KU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
70.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
70.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
70.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
70.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
70.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
69.9%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+4
69.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 4 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
69.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 13Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-3
69.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 10Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
69.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson, broken up by JT WoodsSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
70.0%
Kyle Thompson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4870% → 73%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
70.0%
Chris Platt run for 19 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
70.2%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
70.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-5
70.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 4 yards to the KU19 (Defense, Hasan), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Blackmar,Blake) 5 yards to the KU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+15
69.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 15 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
70.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Kans 12Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-10
70.2%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Lovett,John for loss of 5 yards to the KU17 (Loneker, Keith), PENALTY BU holding (Tecklenburg,Sam) 10 yards to the KU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 19
OPP 22
+22
72.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 22 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5828% → 27%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
71.7%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
71.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (BJ Thompson) to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
71.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 28 yds to the BAYLOR 34 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, roughing passer (Jordan Williams) to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
70.4%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
70.7%
Peyton Bender pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+2
70.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 13
OPP 22
-9
71.3%
Peyton Bender sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 22
OPP 31
+48
72.7%
Gabriel Rui 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4073% → 79%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
72.7%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
72.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
73.4%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
73.5%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
73.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
79.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 39 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.3%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
77.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
77.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
77.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
76.5%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
77.0%
Dom Williams run for no gain to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
77.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 3 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
77.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 6:4380% → 86%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
80.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
80.3%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+14
80.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 14 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
80.4%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Thornton,Tyquan for 21 yards to the KU45 (Harris, Corione), PENALTY BU holding (Henderson,Tyler) 10 yards to the BU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+12
80.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
80.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
80.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+23
81.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 8 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, roughing passer (Keith Loneker Jr.) to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Corione HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
81.2%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-10
81.4%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 4 yards to the KU18, PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the KU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+4
81.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
86.2%
Connor Martin 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:4516% → 14%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Quan Hampton for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.3%
Miles Kendrick pass incomplete to Evan FairsSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
85.4%
Miles Kendrick sacked by JT Woods for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 16Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+11
85.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 41 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 11 yds to the Kans 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:1689% → 95%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
88.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 14 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
88.7%
Josh Fleeks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+34
94.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 34 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:468% → 7%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
92.4%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
91.9%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
92.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-5
92.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 41 yds , Chris Platt returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 8 Chris Platt fumbled, forced by Osaze Ogbebor, recovered by Bayl Jake CopelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.6%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
92.5%
Miles Kendrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
92.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 5 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 55 yds, downed at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
94.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Corione HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-8
94.4%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Hurd) to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+13
94.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 13 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by Tyrone Miller Jr.Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+54
94.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 54 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:285% → 14%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
94.6%
Kendrick, Miles pass complete to Booker, J. for 8 yards to the KU18, out-of-bounds (Miller,Chris), PENALTY KU holding (Wallace, Dwayne) 5 yards to the KU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
94.8%
Miles Kendrick pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+13
94.8%
Miles Kendrick run for 13 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+5
94.7%
Miles Kendrick run for 5 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+72
94.6%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 72 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Kerr Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
94.1%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (Hakeem Adeniji) to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
86.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 10 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3289% → 95%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
88.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 13 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
89.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+38
89.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 38 yds to the Kans 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
89.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
89.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Kans 9Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-1
89.3%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 10Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
95.0%
Connor Martin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
93.2%
Steven Sims Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+37
93.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 37 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
92.6%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ira Lewis) to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Quan HamptonSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
92.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
92.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+7
92.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Stephon Robinson for 7 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2796% → 97%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+13
96.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
96.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-10
96.4%
Brewer,Charlie rush for 4 yards to the BU40 (Dineen, Joe), PENALTY BU holding (Fruhmorgen,Jake) 10 yards to the BU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 18
OWN 26
-3
96.2%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 23
+8
97.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-6
95.3%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 5Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 16
OWN 5
+4
95.5%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kans 9 KANSAS Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+20
95.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jameson Houston) to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for no gain to the Kans 29Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
95.2%
Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-3
95.3%
Peyton Bender sacked by Greg Roberts for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 28Similar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 65 yds, downed at the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
17 plays · 52 yds · 6:0198% → 99%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
97.9%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
97.9%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+10
97.9%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Platt,Chris, PENALTY KU holding (Defense, Hasan) 10 yards to the BU19, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
98.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
98.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
98.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-7
98.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Osaze Ogbebor and KeyShaun Simmons for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+19
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 19 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
98.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Daniel Wise for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+3
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 3 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+7
98.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 7 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
99.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-6
99.2%
Carter Stanley sacked by BJ Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 10Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+4
99.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kerr Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+1
99.2%
Kyle Thompson punt for 52 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 15 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Jameson Houston) to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.2%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 36 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
99.2%
Hasty,JaMycal rush for 3 yards to the KU36 (Ford, DeAnte), PENALTY BU holding (Henle,Christoph) 10 yards to the KU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 20
OPP 49
-5
99.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Jalan McClendon) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 25
OWN 46
-4
99.2%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Brian Lipscomb for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 29
OWN 42
+1
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 28
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 28
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
99.4%
Carter Stanley run for 18 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
99.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Evan Fairs for 20 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Kwamie Lassiter IISimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.2%
Carter Stanley run for 15 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:32
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 10 yds for a TD (Gabriel Rui KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 14:52
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 39 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 1:37
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 34 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT MISSED)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com