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DUKE

Duke 40 at Baylor 27

BAY
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:49 · Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−0.4Pregame prior+9.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:05: Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:19: Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 66 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham PAT MISSED) — DUKE win probability +12.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:47: Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:12: Collin Wareham 31 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:39: Jalan McClendon pass intercepted for a TD Leonard Johnson return for 53 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:03BAY 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:03BAY 4th & 15 at DUKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05BAY 4th & 26 at BAY 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:08DUKE 4th & 6 at BAY 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 27, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14DUKE 4th & 10 at BAY 30, up 23
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:08DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−4.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:47BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:39DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 38, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:40BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−3.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at BAY 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:12DUKE 4th & 8 at BAY 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:33DUKE 4th & 1 at BAY 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:56DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:05DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:08BAY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:47DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:44BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:39DUKE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:56BAY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:5761% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
61.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
61.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
61.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+11
61.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
61.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-8
61.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Duke 28 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+11
61.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
61.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
61.3%
Connor Martin 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2839% → 39%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
61.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
60.8%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.8%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
60.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
61.0%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
60.8%
Austin Parker punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
61.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+10
60.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 10 yds John Lovett fumbled, forced by Josh Blackwell, recovered by Duke Dylan SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4040% → 43%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
59.9%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
59.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
57.3%
Deon Jackson run for 31 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
57.8%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Chris Platt for 16 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
58.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
58.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+9
57.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.4%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
58.3%
Tyquan Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
57.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
57.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.9%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.4%
Quentin Harris run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
55.4%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
55.1%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.0%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
55.0%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+1
55.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Marvin Hubbard III for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
55.9%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen Hurd at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:2754% → 51%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
54.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
54.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
54.3%
Jalan McClendon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
53.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
53.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Marques Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+21
53.2%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 21 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
55.1%
Jalan McClendon run for 7 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
55.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
55.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
56.1%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-9
55.5%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
51.1%
Connor Martin 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Marquis Waters TEAM return for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:5850% → 61%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
50.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.1%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
49.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+20
49.2%
Brittain Brown run for 20 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
38.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
40.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 18 JaMycal Hasty fumbled, recovered by Bayl JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
40.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-9
39.9%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Platt,Chris for 21 yards to the BU39, PENALTY BU holding (Anderson,E.) 9 yards to the BU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
39.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
39.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, downed at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4663% → 69%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
37.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Chris Taylor for 12 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
37.2%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
36.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
37.1%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
36.9%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
36.9%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
37.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Marvin Hubbard IIISimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
30.6%
Collin Wareham 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
33.3%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-1
33.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+6
33.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
20.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 66 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
23.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
23.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner, broken up by Dylan SingletonSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
23.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+32
23.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 60 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 32 yds to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 25 yds · 0:5383% → 80%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
16.9%
Brittain Brown run for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
16.5%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
16.6%
Harris, Q pass incomplete to Bobo, J, PENALTY BU offside defense (Williams,Jordan) 5 yards to the BU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
16.1%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
17.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Daniel Helm for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
18.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Chris MillerSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
19.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
20.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
19.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
31.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
17.9%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
18.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+10
18.8%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 10 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3120% → 28%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
20.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
21.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd BAYLOR Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+39
21.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 39 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
24.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
27.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds for a TD (TEAM PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
22.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
22.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Brittain Brown, broken up by James LynchSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+1
23.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
23.7%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Jalen Hurd returns for no gain to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
22.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-3
22.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
22.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
22.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 52 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4580% → 67%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
20.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
20.2%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
19.9%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+33
33.4%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by JaMycal Hasty return for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5267% → 87%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 14 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
31.5%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+28
31.8%
Quentin Harris run for 28 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
30.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
30.8%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
31.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 7 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
30.8%
Jackson, D rush for no gain to the BU22 (Roy,Bravvion), PENALTY BU offside defense (Lynch,James) 5 yards to the BU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+2
30.8%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
30.8%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
30.8%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
16.4%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+4
16.0%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
16.2%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Marques JonesSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 11
+21
16.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 55 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 21 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0290% → 89%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
10.3%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
10.3%
Marvin Hubbard III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
9.7%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
10.7%
Austin Parker punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:0113% → 22%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
12.9%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-1
13.0%
Jalan McClendon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+12
12.8%
Jalan McClendon run for 12 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
13.4%
Jalan McClendon run for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
14.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line Trestan Ebner fumbled, forced by Dylan Singleton, recovered by Bayl Patrick Lawrence , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
50
0
14.9%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 4
50
+4
14.5%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 4 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
14.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 8 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
15.6%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+12
15.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
22.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:3283% → 94%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.6%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+26
17.2%
Deon Jackson run for 26 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
15.1%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
14.7%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
15.0%
Hubbard III, M rush for loss of 5 yards to the BU35 (Roy,Bravvion), PENALTY BU personal foul (Roy,Bravvion) 15 yards to the BU15, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
14.6%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-1
14.6%
Marvin Hubbard III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+1
15.6%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
6.5%
Collin Wareham 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:339% → 1%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
9.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
9.9%
Jalan McClendon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+53
1.4%
Jalan McClendon pass intercepted for a TD Leonard Johnson return for 53 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:431% → 9%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+28
1.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 28 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Antone WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+28
1.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 28 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
1.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 9 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
8.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28Uncategorized
10 plays · 7 yds · 0:2297% → 98%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
2.8%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
2.3%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
2.3%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
2.4%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:47
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q2 2:19
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 66 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham PAT MISSED)
-12.5
TD · Q2 8:05
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 28 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com