Try the model
BAY

Baylor 37 at UTSA 20

UTSA
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:29 · Yannis Routsas punt for 63 yds, downed at the Bayl 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−9.0Home team on offense−20.7Score differential−8.6Garbage-time factor−9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:56: Connor Martin 32 yd FG GOOD BAYLOR Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — BAY win probability +2.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:42: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +7.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:07: Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 10 yds for a TD Timeout BAYLOR, clock 13:07 (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +14.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:29: Connor Martin 38 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +3.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:05BAY 4th & 8 at UTSA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07UTSA 4th & 10 at BAY 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 15 at BAY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:12UTSA 4th & 5 at BAY 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56BAY 4th & 10 at UTSA 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 16 at UTSA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:30UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:29BAY 4th & 4 at UTSA 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:29UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:29UTSA 4th & 8 at BAY 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:48BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:42BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:07UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:29BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
8.9%
Cordale Grundy run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-1
8.9%
B.J. Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+2
8.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
8.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:2691% → 90%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
50
+22
9.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 22 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
9.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 12 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
9.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+1
9.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
9.8%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 7Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Christoph HenleSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
9.8%
Brewer,Charlie slant pass incomplete to Platt,Chris (MCGHEE, T.), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (MCGHEE, T.) 5 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the TexSA 2Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
9.8%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 3Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-7
10.8%
Cordale Grundy pass intercepted Derrek Thomas return for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2790% → 89%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
10.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jaylon Haynes for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
10.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+9
10.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 9 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
10.9%
Connor Martin 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:5811% → 12%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.9%
B.J. Daniels run for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
11.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+36
11.0%
B.J. Daniels run for 36 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
11.4%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Tariq WoolenSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
11.4%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
11.2%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Jalen Rhodes, broken up by Derrek ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
11.8%
Jared Sackett 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
11.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
11.6%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+16
11.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
11.5%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
11.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
11.3%
Jalan McClendon run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
11.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 50 yds , Greg Campbell Jr. returns for no gain to the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:5612% → 13%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
12.3%
B.J. Daniels run for 14 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
12.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
12.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 7 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
12.6%
Cordale Grundy run for 5 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
12.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Carter McCarthy for 5 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
13.9%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
14.1%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 5 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
14.0%
Cordale Grundy run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
14.5%
B.J. Daniels run for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-12
14.1%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 12 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
13.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
13.8%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Clayton JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
14.1%
Jalan McClendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
14.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0716% → 18%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
15.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 27 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
16.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
16.7%
B.J. Daniels run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
16.9%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
18.3%
Jared Sackett 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 4:0983% → 86%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+16
17.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 16 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
16.9%
John Lovett run for 13 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+32
16.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 42 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Platt) to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
15.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
15.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+7
15.2%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
13.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 22 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0786% → 89%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
14.5%
Jared Atkinson pass complete to Charlie Brewer for 36 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
13.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Les MaruoSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
13.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-3
13.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
10.9%
Connor Martin 32 yd FG GOOD BAYLOR Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:5811% → 9%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
11.3%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to B.J. Daniels for 9 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
11.7%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
11.4%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-4
12.3%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Deonte Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-7
9.3%
Cordale Grundy sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 30 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, intentional grounding (Cordale Grundy) to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
8.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
10.6%
Jalan McClendon sacked by Lorenzo Dantzler for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 35 Jalan McClendon fumbled, recovered by TexSA King Newton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2912% → 20%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
11.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 22 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
11.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
15.6%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 17 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
14 plays · 45 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
16.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+38
16.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 38 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
14.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 19 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
14.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+10
14.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 10 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
14.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Patrick Lawrence) to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
14.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete, broken up by Brenndan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
14.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Blake Blackmar) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+1
14.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 40
-5
15.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Blake Blackmar) to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+18
15.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 18 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-15
15.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalen Hurd) to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
16.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
17.8%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
17.8%
B.J. Daniels run for 1 yd to the TexSA 6Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+12
17.0%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
18.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 1 yd to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
18.1%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Kirk Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
17.2%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Blaze MoorheadSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+3
16.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:5384% → 93%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Christoph HenleSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
16.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyler Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+18
17.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 18 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
15.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+10
15.8%
Brewer,Charlie sideline pass complete to Mims,Denzel for 5 yards to the UTSA30 (JOHNSON, C.), PENALTY UTSA holding (MARTEL, Andrew) 10 yards to the UTSA25, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
15.5%
John Lovett run for 16 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
15.4%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3510% → 26%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
10.0%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Kirk Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
9.6%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
11.0%
B.J. Daniels run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
11.1%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
11.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 14 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
11.6%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
11.4%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+6
11.0%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
11.4%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
11.4%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Brenden BradySimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
25.6%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 10 yds for a TD Timeout BAYLOR, clock 13:07 (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3882% → 91%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
17.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
16.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
15.5%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
15.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
15.6%
Chris Platt run for 12 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
15.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
13.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
9.5%
Connor Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Blaze Moorhead, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Tariq WoolenSimilar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
11.3%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
10.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 63 yds, downed at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 6:5791% → 99%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
9.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-2
9.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
9.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
9.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Andrew Martel for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+25
9.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 25 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
8.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+1
3.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+13
3.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
3.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 29 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.7%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.5%
Hurd,Jalen rush up middle for no gain to the UTSA1 (CARTER-MCLIN, J), PENALTY UTSA face mask (CARTER-MCLIN, J) 0 yards to the UTSA1, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.7%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Blaze MoorheadSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
1.7%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 12 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.8%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
1.8%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Gavin Sharp, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
1.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Treyvion Shannon) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 15
50
+7
1.7%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 7 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
1.7%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Tariq WoolenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:07
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 10 yds for a TD Timeout BAYLOR, clock 13:07 (Jared Sackett KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q2 0:09
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 3:42
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com