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ACU

Abilene Christian 27 at Baylor 55

BAY
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:06 · Simon Laryea punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+31.4Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.6Blowout margin+16.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:08: JaMycal Hasty run for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:50: Billy McCrary run for 75 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK) — ACU win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:55: John Lovett run for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:55: John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK) — BAY win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:53: Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 7 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK) — ACU win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:39ACU 4th & 3 at ACU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:39BAY 4th & 15 at ACU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:39ACU 4th & 11 at ACU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 30, up 10
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:55ACU 4th & 15 at ACU 20, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:24BAY 4th & 8 at ACU 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ACU 4th & 4 at BAY 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:22BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:39ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:06ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 48, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:27BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:41ACU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:24BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:08BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:50ACU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:55BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:55BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:53ACU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:18BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 6 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+2
98.8%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-1
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cody Ennis for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Simon Laryea punt for 36 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the AblCh 48 TEAM fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1699% → 98%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
98.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 20 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
98.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the AblCh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
98.7%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Platt,Chris for 12 yards to the ACU1, out-of-bounds (Richardson, K.), PENALTY BU pass interference (Hurd,Jalen) 15 yards to the ACU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 25
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 25
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Christoph HenleSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 25
OPP 28
+10
98.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 10 yds to the AblCh 18Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+35
98.4%
Connor Martin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Tracy James run for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
98.4%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 6 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+13
98.5%
Simon Laryea punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 20 , Jalen Hurd returns for 13 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
98.1%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 34 yds to the AblCh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
98.2%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.2%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
98.2%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 20 yds to the AblCh 15 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the AblCh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
98.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 7 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
98.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 2 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
98.1%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
98.1%
Luke Anthony pass intercepted Terrel Bernard return for 28 yds to the AblCh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:4798% → 99%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
98.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
98.5%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Marques Jones for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:582% → 2%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 9 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
98.4%
Tracy James run for 12 yds to the AblCh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
97.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 54 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
97.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 8 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-1
97.8%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chase Cokley at the AblCh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
97.6%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the AblCh 32Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
97.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 2 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
97.7%
Simon Laryea punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
97.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 15 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner, broken up by Adonis DavisSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 12 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
97.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 18 yds to the AblCh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
97.4%
John Lovett run for 19 yds to the AblCh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:542% → 3%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Cody EnnisSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 2 yds to the AblCh 27 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Bravvion Roy) to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kalin Sadler for 9 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+9
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 9 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
98.1%
Billy McCrary run for 11 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.0%
Billy McCrary run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
97.8%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+17
97.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 9 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Chris Miller) to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
97.8%
Tracy James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.8%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
97.9%
Luke Anthony sacked by James Lockhart for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
98.1%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
97.2%
Oscar Hernandez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:2298% → 99%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.6%
Tyquan Thornton run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+14
97.6%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Chris Platt for 14 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:181% → 3%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to D.J. FullerSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.3%
Billy McCrary run for 75 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5597% → 99%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.4%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 16 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.5%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+23
97.7%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 23 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.1%
John Lovett run for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:551% → 2%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
98.7%
Sema'J Davis run for 11 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kalin Sadler for 7 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+15
98.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
50
-10
98.6%
Anthony, L. pass complete to James, T. for 4 yards to the BU46 (Arnold,Grayland), PENALTY ACU holding (Laws, D.) 10 yards to the ACU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+5
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kalin Sadler for 5 yds to the AblCh 45Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+14
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 14 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+12
98.5%
Luke Anthony run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+46
97.9%
Oscar Hernandez 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.7%
Tracy James run for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
97.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 2 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Chase Cokley ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.7%
Simon Laryea punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 15 , TEAM returns for no gain to the Bayl 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Bayl Tony NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
98.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
98.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+55
98.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 55 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
98.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 7 yds to the AblCh 10Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+7
98.2%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the AblCh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Billy McCrary run for no gain to the AblCh 25Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.2%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 20Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kalin Sadler, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.5%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Koy Richardson return for no gain to the AblCh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:401% → 3%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+47
99.2%
Billy McCrary run for 47 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
99.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 14 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.1%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 7 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2998% → 99%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+17
98.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.3%
Jalan McClendon run for no gain to the AblCh 34Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
98.3%
Jalan McClendon pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 2 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
98.3%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
99.0%
Connor Martin 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:241% → 1%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.9%
Sema'J Davis pass complete to Cody Ennis for 15 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.8%
Sema'J Davis pass complete to Chase Cokley for 7 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-12
98.8%
James, T. rush for 3 yards to the 50 yardline (Matiscik,Ross), PENALTY ACU personal foul (Parmelly, K.) 12 yards to the ACU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+27
98.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 27 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.8%
Billy McCrary run for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kalin SadlerSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+8
98.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 8 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.7%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, delay of game (Luke Anthony) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Billy McCrary for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+2
99.1%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+3
99.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
99.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-4
99.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
99.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, downed at the AblCh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.3%
Sema'J Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 33Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kalin Sadler, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+21
99.4%
Simon Laryea punt for 43 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 21 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.5%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
99.5%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Jalan McClendon pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Adonis DavisSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.5%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+30
99.5%
John Lovett run for 30 yds to the AblCh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
John Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Sema'J Davis run for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Tyrese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 25Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Sema'J Davis run for 17 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Tyrese White run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 2
50
-2
99.9%
Sema'J Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 48Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete, broken up by James LynchSimilar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
100.0%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
100.0%
Josh Fleeks run for 6 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
100.0%
Josh Fleeks run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+7
100.0%
Jalan McClendon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
100.0%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Garret McGuire run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:53
Luke Anthony pass complete to Chase Cokley for 7 yds for a TD, (Oscar Hernandez KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q2 4:08
JaMycal Hasty run for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 1:55
John Lovett run for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Martin KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com