Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 13 at Michigan 38

MICH
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Quinn Nordin 54 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+5.7Pregame prior+12.9Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:33: Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:26: Kendric Pryor run for 33 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +7.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:11: Quinn Nordin 33 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +3.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:21: Shea Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Shea Patterson pass to Nico Collins for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +7.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:55: Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted for a TD Lavert Hill return for 21 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:52WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:28MICH 4th & 5 at WIS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00WIS 4th & 10 at MICH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:01MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:57WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12MICH 4th & 5 at WIS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:11MICH 4th & 10 at WIS 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:09WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00MICH 4th & 14 at WIS 36, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:31WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:54MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:24WIS 4th & 2 at MICH 42, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−2.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:36MICH 4th & 4 at WIS 17, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:27WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 38, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:48WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 25, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 13:33MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:26WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:21MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:55MICH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:16MICH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:47WIS Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0025% → 26%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
75.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
74.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
74.6%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
74.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 3 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
74.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 7:1275% → 73%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 7 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
74.6%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
74.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
74.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Olive Sagapolu for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
74.0%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
73.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
74.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Karan Higdon for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.1%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
74.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 11 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
74.1%
Joe Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
74.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+1
73.6%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
73.0%
Quinn Nordin 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:2028% → 29%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
72.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Danny Davis III for 12 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
71.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
70.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
70.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 10 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
69.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-2
69.9%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
70.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:1771% → 77%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+81
71.4%
Shea Patterson run for 81 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 2Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.0%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4825% → 33%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
75.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
74.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
74.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 23 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
67.1%
Kendric Pryor run for 33 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0871% → 69%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ambry Thomas for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
69.0%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 15 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4832% → 32%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
67.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-2
66.3%
Alex Hornibrook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 45 Alex Hornibrook fumbled, recovered by Wisc Alex HornibrookSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-9
66.6%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+6
68.3%
Anthony Lotti punt for 38 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 6 yds to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:3470% → 72%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
69.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
71.3%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
71.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 28 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
71.9%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-7
71.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by T.J. Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+11
69.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 11 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
71.9%
Quinn Nordin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
70.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Josh Metellus return for 31 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4374% → 77%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
73.9%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Wisc 15Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
73.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
76.6%
Quinn Nordin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4826% → 25%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
73.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
74.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
74.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+26
75.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 52 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 26 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0178% → 75%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
78.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 17 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
78.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by Ryan Connelly for a loss of 15 yards to the Wisc 47 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 25
OPP 47
+7
77.1%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+4
76.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+54
74.8%
Quinn Nordin 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3377% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
76.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
78.5%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
77.7%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 44 Karan Higdon fumbled, forced by Reggie Pearson, recovered by MichSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+15
75.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.4%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+25
78.3%
Karan Higdon run for 25 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
78.7%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
78.7%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
86.2%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Shea Patterson pass to Nico Collins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2614% → 14%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
86.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
85.4%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
85.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
85.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
85.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
85.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
86.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3188% → 89%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.8%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+17
88.3%
Karan Higdon run for 17 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.3%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-1
89.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
88.5%
Will Hart punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2612% → 13%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
88.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+37
88.2%
Danny Davis III run for 37 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
50
+2
86.5%
Kendric Pryor run for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
86.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
86.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
87.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:4392% → 97%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.3%
Karan Higdon run for 16 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
93.5%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
93.6%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.9%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
94.1%
Karan Higdon run for 12 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
94.4%
Shea Patterson run for 12 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.6%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-1
94.7%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+5
95.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 5 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
96.5%
Quinn Nordin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18INT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:184% → 1%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
95.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
95.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+21
98.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted for a TD Lavert Hill return for 21 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 8 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:4899% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.4%
Tru Wilson run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
Tru Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.5%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 1
50
+2
99.6%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.6%
Tru Wilson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 44 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:290% → 1%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 36 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 9 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+27
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 27 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.8%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 12
50
+10
99.8%
Christian Turner run for 10 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
99.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+23
99.9%
Joe Milton run for 23 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:21
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Shea Patterson pass to Nico Collins for Two-Point Conversion)
+7.5
TD · Q2 11:26
Kendric Pryor run for 33 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 13:33
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com