Try the model
MICH

Michigan 20 at Northwestern 17

NU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:02 · Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 39 , Ronnie Bell returns for no gain to the Mich 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior−22.4Home team on offense+8.3Garbage-time factor+3.8Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:58: Charlie Kuhbander 45 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +4.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:56: John Moten IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +14.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:14: Karan Higdon run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:06: Karan Higdon run for 5 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +33.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:34: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down — NU win probability +11.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:54MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:58NU 4th & 26 at MICH 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:17MICH 4th & 1 at NU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14NU 4th & 19 at NU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−3.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:29MICH 4th & 8 at NU 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:02NU 4th & 1 at NU 14, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 11 at NU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40MICH 4th & 5 at NU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−12.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:40NU 4th & 9 at NU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00MICH 4th & 4 at NU 6, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−16.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 10 at NU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−3.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−6.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24NU 4th & 8 at NU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:06NU 4th & 20 at NU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−4.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:46MICH 4th & 6 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:18NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56NU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:14MICH Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:06MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
15.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-2
15.1%
Ronnie Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-4
15.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Joe Gaziano and Earnest Brown IV for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 16Similar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 16
+16
15.1%
Will Hart punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 44 , Riley Lees returns for 16 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:2316% → 19%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
16.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 7 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-1
16.3%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 4
50
+9
16.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 9 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
16.4%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+36
16.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 36 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
18.3%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
18.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
18.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+5
18.5%
Will Hart punt for 54 yds , Riley Lees returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0620% → 24%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
19.6%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
19.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 15 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
19.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Rashan Gary) to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
19.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
19.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
19.9%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-15
19.9%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Green, Cameron for 4 yards to the MICH7 (Hill, Lavert), PENALTY NU pass interference (Chiaokhiao) 15 yards to the MICH26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 25
OPP 26
-4
19.7%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 29
OPP 30
+3
19.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 26
OPP 27
+45
24.0%
Charlie Kuhbander 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:3777% → 74%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
23.5%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
23.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Karan Higdon for 9 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
23.3%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
25.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
25.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 1 yd to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
26.0%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2528% → 44%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to JJ Jefferson, broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.0%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
27.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 8 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
29.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+9
30.1%
Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.1%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
29.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+15
29.4%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Skowronek, B. (Long, David), PENALTY MICH pass interference (Long, David) 15 yards to the MICH7, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
30.1%
Riley Lees run for 4 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.3%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:3559% → 66%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
40.6%
Karan Higdon run for 18 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
39.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
39.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 5 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
39.2%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
50
+21
39.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 21 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
38.4%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 25 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.0%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.0%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
36.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
36.1%
Riley Lees run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-3
36.7%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+10
35.3%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Nagel, Flynn, PENALTY MICH holding (Hill, Lavert) 10 yards to the NU45, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
36.9%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-12
36.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 12 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
34.7%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for no gain to the Mich 36 MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (Karan Higdon) to the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3657% → 53%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+40
42.9%
Karan Higdon run for 30 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive holding (Jordan Thompson) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
40.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-3
40.4%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
41.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 7 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-5
41.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Zach Gentry) to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
46.7%
Will Hart punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1346% → 47%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
45.9%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
48.4%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+3
48.1%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
47.2%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 39 , Ronnie Bell returns for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5051% → 50%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
49.4%
Patterson, Shea rush for 15 yards to the NU46, out-of-bounds (McGee, Jared), PENALTY MICH holding (Runyan, Jon) 10 yards to the MICH29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+17
50.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 17 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
46.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
50.2%
Will Hart punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
51.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.4%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
50.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
52.0%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
51.2%
John Moten IV run for 9 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-8
50.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+32
48.2%
Jake Collins punt for 32 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:4346% → 49%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
54.0%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
52.7%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
53.2%
Ben Mason run for 3 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
53.1%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
53.1%
Shea Patterson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
51.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 36 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
49.5%
Tru Wilson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
49.5%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 5Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
51.3%
Quinn Nordin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
60.2%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.5%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-7
59.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Michael Onwenu for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+5
56.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense (Khaleke Hudson) to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+8
56.6%
Jake Collins punt for 32 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:2846% → 48%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
54.5%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
52.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
52.9%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.6%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
53.7%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
52.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
52.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 24 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
49.5%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+9
50.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 9 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
51.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-Jones, broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
51.7%
Quinn Nordin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
60.6%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Devin BushSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
58.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Josh RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
57.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+13
55.7%
Jake Collins punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 13 yds to the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0046% → 41%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.5%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-10
53.5%
Patterson, Shea rush for 20 yards to the NU41, out-of-bounds (McGee, Jared), PENALTY MICH holding (Higdon, Karan) 10 yards to the MICH29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+7
56.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 7 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
57.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 36
-5
58.5%
Hart, Will punt 54 yards to the NU10, Lees, Riley return to the NU13 (Wangler, Jared), PENALTY MICH illegal formation 5 yards to the MICH31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+15
59.2%
Will Hart punt for 56 yds , Riley Lees returns for 15 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 59%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.5%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-1
61.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Jake Collins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:5941% → 82%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
58.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jared Wangler for 9 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
55.0%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
55.9%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+13
56.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 13 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
54.1%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
54.2%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
54.8%
Shea Patterson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.6%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+22
52.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 22 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
51.6%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.3%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0034% → 29%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Brandon WatsonSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
30.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+4
29.1%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 4 yds to the Mich 19 MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
14 plays · 16 yds · 2:1679% → 92%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
21.0%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
20.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+8
18.6%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
17.0%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
15.1%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
10.0%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
7.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 6
50
+10
7.6%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 15 , Riley Lees returns for 10 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0019% → 22%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
18.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
21.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
18.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 15 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
21.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:06
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-33.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.7
TD · Q2 12:56
John Moten IV run for 3 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com