Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 10 at Michigan 56

MICH
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1MICH 93.7%Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds ,Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for nogain to the Mich 41AWAY 3 - HOME 23 · Q2 12:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:48 · Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for no gain to the Mich 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+30.1Home team on offense+10.8Score differential+8.1Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:27: Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:58: Karan Higdon run for 44 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +0.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:09: Ben Mason run for 4 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT MISSED) — MICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:44: Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 17 yds to the Neb 34 — NEB win probability +5.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:23: Barret Pickering 35 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +0.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NEB made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 9:08NEB 4th & 23 at NEB 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22NEB 4th & 13 at NEB 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:07NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:01MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 8, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:11MICH 4th & 7 at NEB 32, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:48NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:30MICH 4th & 1 at NEB 12, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:44NEB 4th & 30 at NEB 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04MICH 4th & 7 at NEB 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:33MICH 4th & 21 at MICH 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:01NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23NEB 4th & 5 at MICH 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:58MICH 4th & 8 at NEB 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:38NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:01NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:55MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:17NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:27MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:58MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:09MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2711% → 12%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
88.8%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+32
88.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 32 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.4%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted Josh Metellus return for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3588% → 89%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
88.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Karan Higdon for 7 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+46
88.3%
Karan Higdon run for 46 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
88.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
88.1%
Ben Mason run for 6 yds to the Neb 3Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
88.0%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:1312% → 12%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.3%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
88.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Greg BellSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-14
88.2%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jordan Glasgow for a loss of 14 yards to the Neb 12Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+32
88.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the MICHIGAN 41 NEBRASKA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Cam Taylor) to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
89.3%
Karan Higdon run for 44 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2011% → 11%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
89.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Rashan Gary and Carlo Kemp for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:0790% → 92%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
89.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
89.7%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
89.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+21
89.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 21 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
89.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+3
89.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+26
89.8%
Tru Wilson run for 26 yds to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.2%
Ben Mason run for 4 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:548% → 7%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
92.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
92.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 15 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.4%
Maurice Washington run for 1 yd to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
92.4%
Maurice Washington run for 1 yd to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
92.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
92.9%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0092% → 92%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
92.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
92.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for no gain to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
92.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 10
OWN 13
-5
92.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 8Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
92.0%
Will Hart punt for 57 yds , Tyjon Lindsey returns for no gain to the Neb 35 Tyjon Lindsey fumbled, forced by Jake McCurry, recovered by Mich Ambry ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4993% → 94%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
93.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
93.7%
Quinn Nordin 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:097% → 6%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
93.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
93.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
93.6%
Adrian Martinez run for no gain to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
93.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT TD
10 plays · 2 yds · 4:1594% → 95%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
93.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 23 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
93.8%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+3
94.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+10
94.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 10 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
94.5%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
94.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+6
94.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 6 yds to the Neb 12Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
94.3%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
94.7%
Ben Mason run for 4 yds to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:286% → 10%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-12
94.6%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 12 yards to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 27
OWN 8
-3
94.9%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+17
89.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 17 yds to the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT TD
3 plays · -20 yds · 1:0791% → 91%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
90.7%
Karan Higdon run for 25 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
90.7%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Neb 1Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:0111% → 11%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
89.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
89.3%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 12Similar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 20
OWN 12
-1
89.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 11Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 21
OWN 11
-11
89.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete for a SAFETY to Adrian Martinez for a loss of 11 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15SF
12 plays · -10 yds · 3:3190% → 90%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
90.5%
Tru Wilson run for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+9
89.4%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
90.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 14 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.7%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-9
90.6%
Shea Patterson sacked by Mohamed Barry for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+9
89.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tru Wilson for 9 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
89.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16DOWNS
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:1790% → 90%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
90.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 5 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
90.4%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+9
90.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 9 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
90.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 9 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
91.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 6 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
91.6%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-9
90.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 21
OWN 31
0
90.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 21
OWN 31
+3
90.4%
Will Hart punt for 57 yds , Tyjon Lindsey returns for 3 yds to the Neb 34 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dicaprio Bootle) to the Neb 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:249% → 9%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
90.9%
Andrew Bunch run for 4 yds to the Neb 12Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
90.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 12
-1
91.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 11Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+60
91.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 49 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 60 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:279% → 10%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
90.6%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for 9 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-2
89.7%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to JD Spielman for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
90.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
90.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+15
90.8%
Bunch, Andrew pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
50
+27
89.4%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 27 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
88.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
88.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+5
89.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-3
89.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
90.0%
Barret Pickering 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:1593% → 93%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
92.5%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Mich 31 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 14
OWN 21
+3
92.5%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
92.7%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Jake McCurry for 15 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
93.3%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Oliver Martin for 15 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
93.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
93.6%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 17 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
93.7%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
93.7%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Jake McCurrySimilar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
93.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
93.0%
Quinn Nordin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Maurice Washington run for no gain to the Neb 25Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
92.4%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Jack StollSimilar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
92.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 52 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 7 yds to the Mich 33 NEBRASKA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:0995% → 95%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.6%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Ambry ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.1%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 56 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:168% → 7%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.6%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.9%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Greg BellSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
92.1%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 2 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5595% → 95%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
95.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 1 yd to the Mich 31 O'Maury Samuels fumbled, recovered by Mich Andrew VastardisSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
95.2%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Jared WanglerSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Will Hart punt for 64 yds, downed at the Neb 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:327% → 6%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
92.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 4Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+23
92.9%
Andrew Bunch run for 23 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
93.3%
Andrew Bunch run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 14
OWN 23
-8
93.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (-8 Yards) to the Neb 15Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 22
OWN 15
0
93.4%
Andrew Bunch pass incomplete to Jaron WoodyardSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
93.6%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:4596% → 97%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
96.4%
Christian Turner run for 19 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
96.7%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the Neb 25Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
96.7%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
96.8%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted, touchback. Deontai Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:506% → 7%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
93.8%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 14 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Wyatt Mazour run for no gain to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+36
93.1%
Andrew Bunch pass complete to Wyatt Mazour for 21 yds to the MICHIGAN 45 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Khaleke Hudson) to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.4%
Wyatt Mazour run for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+17
92.2%
Wyatt Mazour run for 17 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
92.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+13
92.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
92.6%
Wyatt Mazour run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
92.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Mich 3Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.6%
Wyatt Mazour run for 3 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28Uncategorized
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:3397% → 98%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
97.7%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.8%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
97.9%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
98.2%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:44
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 17 yds to the Neb 34
-5.1
TD · Q1 3:09
Ben Mason run for 4 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin PAT MISSED)
+2.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com