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SMU

SMU 20 at Michigan 45

MICH
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+1.4MICH 96.3%Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD (QuinnNordin KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 7 · Q2 6:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:56 · Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+39.8Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:56: Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:16: Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 50 yds for a TD (Will Moore KICK) — SMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:34: Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 35 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Josh Metellus return for 73 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:36: William Brown pass complete to Ryan Becker for 2 yds for a TD (Will Moore PAT MISSED) — SMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:57SMU 4th & 10 at MICH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40MICH 4th & 1 at SMU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56MICH 4th & 1 at SMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:16MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:07SMU 4th & 4 at MICH 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:43SMU 4th & 2 at MICH 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:03MICH 4th & 4 at SMU 27, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:03SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:05SMU 4th & 5 at MICH 19, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:56MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:16SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:34MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:36SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:05MICH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.6%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
98.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
98.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.6%
Will Hart punt for 50 yds , James Proche returns for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
98.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 10 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
98.4%
Braeden West run for 14 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Chase WinovichSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3098% → 98%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+19
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 19 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.3%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-1
98.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Shaine Hailey for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+15
98.0%
Will Hart punt for 50 yds for a 1ST down , James Proche returns for 15 yds to the MICHIGAN 47 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
98.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
98.0%
William Brown run for 10 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.9%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
97.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 33 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:0598% → 98%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
97.7%
Ambry Thomas run for 11 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
97.7%
Chris Evans run for 7 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
97.8%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+8
97.7%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
97.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 32 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
97.5%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-1
97.5%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
97.5%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
97.4%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
97.5%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
97.5%
Tru Wilson run for no gain to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+2
97.5%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Mikial Onu return for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:164% → 4%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
96.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
96.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+1
96.4%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 6:2596% → 96%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
96.3%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
96.3%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+24
96.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 24 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 12 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
96.4%
Tru Wilson run for 7 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
96.4%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
96.3%
Ben Mason run for 3 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
96.4%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 5 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Mich Shea PattersonSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.4%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.3%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:404% → 8%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.3%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
96.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
96.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
50
+50
92.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 50 yds for a TD (Will Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4294% → 96%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
94.3%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
94.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 3 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
94.3%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
94.2%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
50
+15
94.5%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
95.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 35 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10INT TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:345% → 4%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
95.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by Carlo Kemp for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+32
95.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 32 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
94.2%
Ben Hicks sacked by Bryan Mone for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+15
94.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Josh Metellus) to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+73
96.1%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Josh Metellus return for 73 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to Brandon BensonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to Judah BellSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
William Brown run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 6 yds to the Mich 36 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:4899% → 99%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
98.8%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.9%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+11
98.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 11 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
98.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Tru Wilson) to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+11
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tru Wilson for 11 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
98.9%
Tru Wilson run for 7 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
98.9%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 28 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
21 plays · 87 yds · 7:311% → 4%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
98.7%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
98.7%
William Brown run for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+12
98.7%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.7%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+2
98.7%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+15
98.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Tyree Kinnel) to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.6%
William Brown run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
98.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Khaleke Hudson) to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
98.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
98.6%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-1
98.5%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+7
98.6%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
98.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Lavert Hill) to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.7%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.8%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.7%
William Brown pass complete to Ryan Becker for 2 yds for a TD (Will Moore PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:1398% → 98%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
97.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 41 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:404% → 4%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Josh Ross) to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
96.1%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
95.9%
SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Becker) to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
96.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
96.6%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+16
96.5%
Xavier Jones run for 16 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
96.4%
Tyler Page pass complete to William Brown for 14 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
95.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
95.9%
SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Becker) to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+2
96.1%
William Brown pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+25
96.5%
William Brown run for 25 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
95.9%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.9%
William Brown pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Josh MetellusSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
96.2%
William Brown run for 6 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Zach Gentry) to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+35
97.6%
Chris Evans run for 35 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
97.9%
Tru Wilson run for 12 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.9%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
98.0%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
97.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach Gentry, broken up by Christian DavisSimilar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
98.5%
Quinn Nordin 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.0%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.1%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
98.1%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 5 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
98.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 5:0899% → 100%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
98.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-1
98.8%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+18
98.8%
Shea Patterson run for 18 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.9%
Tru Wilson run for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
98.9%
SMU Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+18
98.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 18 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.9%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
99.8%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 36 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.8%
William Brown pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Judah BellSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden West, broken up by Noah FurbushSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 5
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:16
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 50 yds for a TD (Will Moore KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 1:36
William Brown pass complete to Ryan Becker for 2 yds for a TD (Will Moore PAT MISSED)
-3.1
TD · Q2 6:56
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com