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MICH

Michigan 17 at Notre Dame 24

ND
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:35 · Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+8.4Garbage-time factor+3.3Score differential+1.8Pregame prior−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:55: Jafar Armstrong 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +9.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:41: Ambry Thomas 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +9.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:07: Justin Yoon 48 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +5.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:18: Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +16.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:13: Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 27 — ND win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:16MICH 4th & 2 at ND 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:23MICH 4th & 22 at ND 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:02ND 4th & 14 at ND 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:32MICH 4th & 10 at ND 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:35ND 4th & 1 at MICH 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:40ND 4th & 10 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:42MICH 4th & 10 at ND 16, down 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:03MICH 4th & 4 at ND 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−2.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17ND 4th & 10 at ND 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:06MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07ND 4th & 16 at MICH 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:03ND 4th & 17 at ND 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14MICH 4th & 7 at ND 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:07ND 4th & 7 at MICH 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:35ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:55ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:41MICH Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:18MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1644% → 45%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase Claypool, broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
44.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
44.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 28 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+18
44.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Tyree Kinnel) to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
45.2%
Jafar Armstrong 13 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0955% → 53%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
45.1%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
45.2%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
45.4%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
45.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 8 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
45.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
46.3%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
46.8%
Will Hart punt for 39 yds, downed at the NDame 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 2:5647% → 54%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
47.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-1
47.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 5Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+41
47.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 26 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Metellus) to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down. Metellus ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
48.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
49.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
50
+7
49.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 7 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
53.7%
Chris Finke 43 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:4648% → 43%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
52.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Jonathan Doerer) to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
52.4%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 7 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
52.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 4 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
52.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
52.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
53.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 8 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
54.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+12
54.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
53.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
54.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeon, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-16
55.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 16 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 22
OPP 41
0
56.9%
Will Hart punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1058% → 58%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
58.3%
Avery Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-1
58.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Cole Kmet for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
58.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
58.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 25 yds, downed at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:2243% → 42%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
57.1%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
57.2%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
56.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 3 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
56.8%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
58.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 6 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
58.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 8 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
58.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
59.0%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
59.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach Gentry, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
57.8%
Quinn Nordin 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 7:3160% → 77%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
60.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
60.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
61.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
62.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
50
+5
63.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+10
62.5%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to Davis, Avery, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Ross, Josh) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
63.9%
Wimbush, Brandon pass complete to Davis, Avery for 15 yards to the MICHIGAN20, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal shift (Mack, Alize) 5 yards to the MICHIGAN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+11
64.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 11 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
64.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 9 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
64.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
65.3%
Avery Davis run for no gain to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
64.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
64.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
66.9%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+9
67.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 9 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
67.7%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to Boykin, Miles, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer (Winovich, Chase) 4 yards to the MICHIGAN4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.8%
Jafar Armstrong 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:4867% → 69%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
67.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
68.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
68.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
69.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+12
69.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
50
0
71.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
50
0
71.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Avery Davis, broken up by Brad HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
50
0
70.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 10
50
-2
69.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
71.1%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:1830% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+52
70.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 52 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
66.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 12 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
66.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
66.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant Perry, broken up by Adetokunbo OgundejiSimilar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
68.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 10
OPP 16
-11
70.4%
Will Hart run for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2572% → 72%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
71.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+19
72.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Brandon Watson return for 19 yds to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5731% → 28%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
69.2%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
71.2%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+10
72.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 10 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
72.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4075% → 73%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
75.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
74.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Kevin AustinSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
72.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0427% → 23%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.1%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
74.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
74.7%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+46
76.6%
Will Hart punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NOTREDAME 23 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:4777% → 86%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
76.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-10
76.8%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+22
75.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 22 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
79.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 11 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
80.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 19 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
80.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+3
80.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-5
80.6%
Wimbush, Brandon pass complete to Boykin, Miles for 26 yards to the MICHIGAN0, PENALTY NOTREDAME ineligible downfield on pass (Kmet, Cole) 5 yards to the MICHIGAN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 16
OPP 31
0
81.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
86.4%
Justin Yoon 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4115% → 16%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.3%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
83.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
84.5%
Shea Patterson run for 9 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Julian Okwara return for no gain to the NDame 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1091% → 91%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
91.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
91.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
91.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
91.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize Mack, broken up by Josh UcheSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-4
91.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
90.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds, downed at the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 6:4211% → 8%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
89.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+10
89.6%
Karan Higdon run for 10 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
89.3%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
89.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
90.1%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
89.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
90.2%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
90.6%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
90.4%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
90.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Grant Perry for 10 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
90.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Oliver Martin for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+2
91.0%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
92.1%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Karan HigdonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
95.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
96.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
96.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:446% → 23%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
93.9%
McCaffrey, Dylan pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Tranquill, Drue) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
92.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 13 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
92.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 24 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.2%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
93.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Chris EvansSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+21
94.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Oliver Martin for 21 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
93.5%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.4%
Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2593% → 95%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
93.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
94.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
94.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 6 yds to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:548% → 8%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
91.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 16 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 29 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Jerry Tillery, recovered by NDame Te'von Coney , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4097% → 97%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
Karan Higdon 3 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-16.2
TD · Q2 3:41
Ambry Thomas 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-9.7
TD · Q2 3:55
Jafar Armstrong 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com