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MSU

Michigan State 6 at Nebraska 9

NEB
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:13 · William Przystup punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+20.0+10.00−10.0−20.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:07: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 35 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST down — NEB win probability +10.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:09: Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19 — NEB win probability +9.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 8:07: Barret Pickering 20 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +13.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:13: Barret Pickering 47 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +12.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55: Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 34 — NEB win probability +17.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46MSU 4th & 10 at NEB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:46NEB 4th & 5 at MSU 27, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:11MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:18MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58MSU 4th & 21 at NEB 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:48NEB 4th & 8 at MSU 33, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:54MSU 4th & 5 at NEB 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:58MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:21NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:13MSU 4th & 8 at NEB 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−16.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:07NEB 4th & 9 at MSU 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−12.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:07NEB 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−20.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−5.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:13NEB 4th & 5 at MSU 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−6.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:13MSU 4th & 10 at NEB 41, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:03NEB 4th & 13 at NEB 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−9.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:52MSU 4th & 4 at NEB 29, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%−1.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−14.2
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
48.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
48.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
48.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
48.0%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+7
48.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 7 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
48.0%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 28 yds, downed at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:4552% → 52%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
48.5%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
48.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
48.3%
Connor Heyward run for 27 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
48.2%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+7
48.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Laress Nelson for 7 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
48.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
48.2%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Neb 16Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
48.5%
Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
48.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
48.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 10 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
49.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 17 yds to the MchSt 43 Adrian Martinez fumbled, forced by David Dowell, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
49.6%
Maurice Washington run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39 Maurice Washington fumbled, forced by Gerald Owens,Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
49.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for 7 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
49.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
49.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+5
49.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
49.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
48.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
48.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Antonio ReedSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+18
49.3%
William Przystup punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 35 , Stanley Morgan Jr. returns for 18 yds to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 4 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+29
49.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 14 yds Kade Warner fumbled, forced by Andrew Dowell, recovered by MchSt Andrew Dowell MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1352% → 51%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.2%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
48.0%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
47.8%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
47.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
47.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
48.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
49.3%
William Przystup punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0649% → 50%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
49.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 10 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
49.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
50.2%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 21 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by MchSt Kenny Willekes , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8MISSED FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:5153% → 51%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
46.7%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 24 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mohamed Barry) to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
46.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Neb 11Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
46.6%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-15
47.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 21
OPP 23
+41
49.5%
Matt Coghlin 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 2:1050% → 49%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
49.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete, broken up by Josiah ScottSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
49.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 13 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
50.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
51.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
50.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Jack Stoll, PENALTY MSU roughing passer 15 yards to the MSU49, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
51.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
51.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+13
49.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 13 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
51.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
51.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew DowellSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+1
50.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
48.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
45.8%
Antjuan Simmons run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 27 Antjuan Simmons fumbled, forced by Antonio Reed, recovered by MchSt Rocky LombardiSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+9
47.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+10
46.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
44.8%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
44.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
44.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
46.2%
William Przystup punt for 25 yds, downed at the Neb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
46.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 12 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
46.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
45.0%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 53 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT
14 plays · 49 yds · 1:0155% → 59%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
45.4%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+1
45.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+24
45.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 24 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
43.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Connor Heyward, broken up by Carlos DavisSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
44.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 11 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
42.4%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Lamar Jackson) 8 yards to the NEB45, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
40.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
40.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
41.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Antonio Reed return for no gain to the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
42.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
45.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Laress Nelson for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
46.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+27
47.4%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stanley Morgan Jr. at the NEBRASKA 31 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 46%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
47.8%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+3
45.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 3 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
45.6%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 46 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
45.9%
Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
45.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
46.5%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
45.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Sokol for 14 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
44.6%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
43.1%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
43.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-3
43.0%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
45.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Cam TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 12
OWN 44
-8
47.1%
William Przystup punt for 46 yds , Stanley Morgan Jr. returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 2 Stanley Morgan Jr. fumbled, recovered by Neb Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
44.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 10 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
45.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+14
45.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 14 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
46.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
46.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
48.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
46.6%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 6:1458% → 72%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
42.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 36 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
38.6%
Jefferson, L. rush over right tackle for 4 yards to the NEB34, PENALTY MSU holding (Allen, Matt) 10 yards to the NEB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+12
39.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 12 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
38.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 7 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
38.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
36.9%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-1
36.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+11
38.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
36.0%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
37.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for no gain to the Neb 8Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
28.2%
Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:0040% → 43%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
39.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 35 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
43.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
43.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Mike Williams for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
40.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Jack StollSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
43.4%
Barret Pickering 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
37.8%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-10
37.8%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Antonio Reed for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 20 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by Neb Damion Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0248% → 58%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
47.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
47.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Raequan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
44.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 15 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
47.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
47.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Jack StollSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
58.0%
Barret Pickering 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0049% → 45%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
51.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
53.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
55.1%
William Przystup punt for 35 yds , Stanley Morgan Jr. returns for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5961% → 73%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
60.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
61.8%
Maurice Washington run for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
63.0%
Maurice Washington run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
61.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Maurice Washington for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
73.2%
Barret Pickering 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
67.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 34 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
60.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
60.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
63.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Luke GiffordSimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
66.6%
William Przystup punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:1876% → 78%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
75.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 18Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
77.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-1
76.0%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 17Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
77.9%
Isaac Armstrong punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Tre NealSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
71.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
72.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
50
0
67.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
50
0
69.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Connor Heyward, broken up by Tre NealSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
50
+15
71.5%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Lamar Jackson) 15 yards to the NEB35, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
65.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
65.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 2 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
67.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
70.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Tre NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0588% → 88%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
87.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+8
88.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 8 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
89.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 39Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-5
88.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 34
+17
FG · Q4 8:07
Barret Pickering 20 yd FG GOOD
+13.2
FG · Q4 5:13
Barret Pickering 47 yd FG GOOD
+12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com