Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 26 at Michigan State 6

MSU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGSAFETYFUMBLEFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:05 · Drue Chrisman punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−5.6Pregame prior−3.5Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:29: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q3 0:42: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt for a SAFETY — OSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q4 14:03: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt Dre'Mont Jones for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:22: Blake Haubeil 35 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:07: Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45 — OSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 12OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:16MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:54MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:42OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:42MSU 4th & 9 at OSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:00OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:55MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:52OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:55MSU 4th & 7 at OSU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:48OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:05MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:55OSU 4th & 17 at MSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:55MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:30MSU 4th & 1 at OSU 26, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:14OSU 4th & 4 at MSU 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−2.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:19MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 10, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:35MSU 4th & 3 at OSU 20, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−11.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:05OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 44, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:31MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−3.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:56OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 40, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−2.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:12OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−3.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:22OSU 4th & 13 at MSU 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−9.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 11:19MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:29OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:12OSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 2:5839% → 40%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.1%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
39.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
39.5%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
39.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
39.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Higby) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
39.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
40.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
39.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
39.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0660% → 59%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
40.1%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-2
40.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Mike Weber for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 21Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+10
40.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 10 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
41.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 4 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5342% → 42%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
41.7%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 39 Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchSt Connor HeywardSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-10
41.5%
White, Cody rush for 5 yards to the OHIOST34, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Sokol, Matt) 10 yards to the OHIOST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 24
OPP 49
+15
41.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
42.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Malik HarrisonSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
41.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 23 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3259% → 58%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
41.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 9 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+2
41.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
41.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
42.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
42.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0042% → 42%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
42.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
42.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
42.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
42.4%
William Przystup punt for 52 yds, downed at the OhSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5858% → 56%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
42.5%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 8Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+8
42.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+10
43.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 10 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
42.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Luke FarrellSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
42.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Chris Olave, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-7
42.9%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Justin Layne and Naquan Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 19Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
43.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4644% → 45%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
43.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
45.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 18 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
45.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to White, Cody for no gain to the OHIOST36, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Stewart Jr., Darrell) 10 yards to the OHIOST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
44.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
44.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+13
44.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 13 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
44.6%
Matt Coghlin 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5757% → 57%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
42.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 8 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
41.8%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
43.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3844% → 44%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
44.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+11
44.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
44.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
45.1%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
44.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
44.3%
William Przystup punt for 52 yds, downed at the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:0456% → 55%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
44.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
44.3%
Weber, Mike rush for no gain to the OHIOST27, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside (Willekes, Kenny) 5 yards to the OHIOST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
43.6%
Dwayne Haskins sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+25
44.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Chris Olave for 25 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
42.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
42.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
41.1%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
40.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurin, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-15
41.1%
Haskins, Dwayne rush for 12 yards to the MICHIGANST5, PENALTY OHIOST personal foul (Pridgeon, Malcolm) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 22
OPP 32
+5
43.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
44.7%
Blake Haubeil 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5547% → 45%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
46.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
45.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:2058% → 70%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Dwayne Haskins run for no gain to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
42.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Bouyer-Randle) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 5
50
+17
41.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 17 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
40.6%
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
40.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
41.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
40.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+10
40.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 10 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
40.2%
Tate Martell run for 5 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:5234% → 41%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
33.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 27 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
36.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 13 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
36.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+44
41.4%
Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
39.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4161% → 61%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.4%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
38.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 7 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
37.9%
Mike Weber run for 18 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
36.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Luke FarrellSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
36.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+8
38.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 8 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
39.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 33 yds, downed at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5140% → 39%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
40.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
40.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 5 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
39.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 10
-3
38.5%
William Przystup punt for 46 yds , K.J. Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1763% → 63%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
37.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+16
38.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 16 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
36.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
36.4%
Parris Campbell run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
35.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
35.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-2
37.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:3840% → 48%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
40.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
40.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 8 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+47
38.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 47 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
44.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 12 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
46.4%
White, Cody pass complete to Sokol, Matt for 27 yards to the OHIOST0, PENALTY MICHIGANST ineligible downfield on pass (Jarvis, Kevin) 5 yards to the OHIOST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
45.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+12
43.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 12 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
43.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Connor Heyward, broken up by Dre'Mont JonesSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
48.4%
Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2256% → 57%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
44.1%
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
42.4%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
40.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
40.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
43.1%
Drue Chrisman punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2844% → 43%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
44.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 18 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
45.7%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
45.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
43.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+6
42.6%
William Przystup punt for 49 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:2557% → 58%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
42.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 21 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Johnnie DixonSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
39.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to J.K. DobbinsSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
41.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
42.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
42.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22SF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1143% → 36%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
43.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
42.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
41.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
35.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3066% → 63%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
50
-5
33.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Farrell) to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+7
36.1%
Mike Weber run for 7 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
33.9%
Parris Campbell run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
34.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
36.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24FUMBLE TD
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
18.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt Dre'Mont Jones for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
19.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 15 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by OhSt Jonathon CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2782% → 89%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
18.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
17.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
17.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Terry McLaurin, broken up by David DowellSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-2
16.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
10.6%
Blake Haubeil 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5615% → 14%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
15.0%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
14.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
14.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
14.2%
William Przystup punt for 32 yds, downed at the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28FUMBLE
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:4592% → 95%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
7.8%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+11
7.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Rashod Berry for 11 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
6.8%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
6.4%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
6.4%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
6.0%
Mike Weber run for 13 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
5.9%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
5.5%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Drew BeesleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:057% → 8%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
6.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
6.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+17
6.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
7.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 12 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
7.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Shaun Wade return for 12 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 30TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5295% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
4.9%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
4.3%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
4.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 7 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
3.5%
Mike Weber run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+15
3.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Rashod Berry for 15 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
2.9%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
2.7%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 31Uncategorized
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
0.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-4 Yards) to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 14
OWN 7
0
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+15
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 14:03
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by OhSt Dre'Mont Jones for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 1:29
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-10.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:07
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com