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PUR

Purdue 13 at Michigan State 23

MSU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:47 · Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds, downed at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+7.6Pregame prior−1.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+1.7Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:33: Spencer Evans 35 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +3.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:08: Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:35: Terry Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +20.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:58: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 48 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9PUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:07MSU 4th & 10 at PUR 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:11PUR 4th & 10 at MSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:23MSU 4th & 5 at PUR 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34PUR 4th & 7 at MSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:26MSU 4th & 9 at PUR 34, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:02PUR 4th & 2 at MSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:33PUR 4th & 10 at MSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:51MSU 4th & 8 at PUR 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:22PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:46MSU 4th & 14 at PUR 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:47PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−3.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:08MSU 4th & 3 at PUR 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−9.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:16MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−4.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:38PUR 4th & 3 at MSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−4.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:40MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:37MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−5.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:42PUR 4th & 2 at MSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.9
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−16.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:56MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:35PUR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:58MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4154% → 54%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
45.8%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
45.9%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
46.1%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 7 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
46.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
46.2%
David Blough pass intercepted David Dowell return for no gain to the Prdue 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0346% → 47%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
46.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
46.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 9 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
46.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 14 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
47.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
47.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
47.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
47.1%
Matt Coghlin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1653% → 52%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
47.2%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 12 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
47.3%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
47.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
47.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
48.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 43 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for no gain to the MchSt 30 Brandon Sowards fumbled, recovered by Prdue Jarrett BurgessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3553% → 53%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
46.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+26
46.9%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 26 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
47.1%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Jared SparksSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
47.0%
Spencer Evans 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:4447% → 50%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+11
47.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Justin Layne for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
48.1%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
49.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 11 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
49.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
49.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Prdue 30 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, forced by Lorenzo Neal, recovered by MchSt Blake BueterSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
49.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
50.0%
Matt Coghlin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4051% → 50%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
50
-5
48.7%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Jared Sparks) to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
49.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+1
49.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 1 yd to the Prdue 46Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+7
50.0%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
50.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:0850% → 51%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
49.9%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
50.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
49.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
51.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 10 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
52.5%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
52.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
53.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
52.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
51.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:5349% → 52%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
50.9%
David Blough pass complete to Jared Sparks for 4 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
49.9%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Herdman) to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+5
51.4%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 5 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+5
51.4%
Blough, David pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MICHIGANST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-3
50.3%
David Blough sacked by Naquan Jones and Gerald Owens for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 13
50
+11
51.7%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 11 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+4
51.4%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
49.4%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+8
49.7%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 8 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
49.8%
D.J. Knox run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
50.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Terry WrightSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
51.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
47.7%
Spencer Evans 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4251% → 51%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
52.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
51.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
52.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
53.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 7 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
54.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 49 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt LJ ScottSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
50.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, downed at the Prdue 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2952% → 50%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
48.3%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 5Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
48.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+8
49.3%
David Blough run for 8 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
49.9%
Joe Schopper punt for 74 yds, downed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 1:2652% → 68%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
51.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
51.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Sokol for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
51.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 27 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
54.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 9 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+13
54.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 13 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
54.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 2 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
67.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:5639% → 37%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
61.4%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 2 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
61.7%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 9 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
62.0%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 6 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
62.4%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 12 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
61.2%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-6
60.5%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Darius Pittman) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+57
62.6%
Spencer Evans 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:1465% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
66.4%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
67.7%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
68.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
68.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
68.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
69.9%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Prdue 36Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+21
70.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 21 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
72.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
72.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
71.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+37
68.8%
Matt Coghlin 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lorenzo NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5932% → 30%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
67.6%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 2Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
68.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
69.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to D.J. KnoxSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
70.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3974% → 79%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
50
+3
74.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
75.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
74.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 9 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
76.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
76.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
75.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 11 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
76.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Prdue 19Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
77.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+3
75.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 3 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
78.6%
Matt Coghlin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2222% → 45%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
77.8%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 12 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
76.7%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 15 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
75.2%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
74.9%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
75.4%
D.J. Knox run for 7 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
75.0%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 30 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.8%
Terry Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1962% → 64%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
62.0%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jacob Thieneman for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+7
60.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to LJ Scott for 7 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
63.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 44 yds , Rondale Moore returns for 6 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3838% → 39%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
61.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 3 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-10
60.4%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Sparks, Jared, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Hermanns, Grant) 10 yards to the PURDUE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+18
64.2%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 18 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
60.5%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 7 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
59.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+2
61.5%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5870% → 68%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
70.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
69.2%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
67.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rondale Moore at the Prdue 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20INT
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:3835% → 43%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
64.7%
D.J. Knox run for 36 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
59.5%
David Blough pass complete to Terry Wright for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+10
59.9%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 10 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
57.2%
David Blough pass intercepted Tyriq Thompson return for no gain to the MchSt 28 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyriq Thompson) to the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:2569% → 69%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
68.8%
Jalen Nailor run for 9 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
69.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
69.8%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+13
69.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Chambers for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
72.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Rocky Lombardi) to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-10
69.9%
Jefferson, La'Darius rush for 7 yards to the MICHIGANST40, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Bueter, Blake) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+6
69.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
71.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+8
69.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 8 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+2
69.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 36 yds , Rondale Moore returns for 2 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5534% → 38%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
66.1%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 39 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
58.3%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
58.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+7
61.1%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
62.5%
Spencer Evans 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mike PanasiukSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4378% → 96%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.9%
Jalen Nailor run for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
83.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
86.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
87.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
96.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 48 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
96.5%
David Blough pass intercepted Matt Morrissey return for 2 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:4797% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-3
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
-3
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:35
Terry Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Evans KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q2 0:56
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q4 1:58
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 48 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com