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MICH

Michigan 21 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:02 · Tyler Hunt punt for 59 yds, downed at the Mich 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−10.1Pregame prior−5.2Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:12: Brian Lewerke 4 Yd pass from Darrell Stewart Jr. (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. SACK · Q3 9:25: Shea Patterson sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 47 — MICH win probability +6.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:30: LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22 — MSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:24: Donovan Peoples-Jones 79 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +21.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:21: Ben Mason 5 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick) — MICH win probability +12.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:39MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:41MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:14MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05MICH 4th & 15 at MSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:11MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:42MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−0.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:07MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36MICH 4th & 8 at MSU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:18MICH 4th & 10 at MSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:51MSU 4th & 21 at MICH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:28MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:16MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:39MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:35MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−4.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:02MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:45MICH 4th & 2 at MSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−2.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:19MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:38MICH 4th & 19 at MICH 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:55MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:12MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:24MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:21MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1568% → 66%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.3%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
32.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 7 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
32.7%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
32.8%
Ronnie Bell run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
33.2%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
33.6%
Will Hart punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4434% → 35%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
33.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
34.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 15 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
34.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
35.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
50
-10
35.5%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+1
35.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 45 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 7:4565% → 69%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
35.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 9 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
35.2%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
35.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
35.8%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-2
35.8%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
36.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
36.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 25 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
35.9%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
35.6%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
36.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
36.0%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
36.2%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
31.4%
Nico Collins 6 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5434% → 33%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
33.5%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
33.9%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
33.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
33.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2068% → 67%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
32.5%
Ben Mason run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
32.3%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding off-setting, PENALTY MICHIGANST Personal Foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
32.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
32.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
33.2%
Will Hart punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5734% → 33%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
33.9%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
33.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
33.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0569% → 68%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
31.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 16 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
30.5%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
30.5%
Ronnie Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
29.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Chris Evans, broken up by Naquan JonesSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
31.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
31.7%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4932% → 31%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
32.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
32.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
31.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 9
OWN 7
+35
31.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 35 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2371% → 69%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
29.1%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
29.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
29.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
31.3%
Will Hart punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2832% → 31%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
32.3%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
32.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
32.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
31.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:2070% → 72%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
30.1%
Karan Higdon run for 38 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
28.7%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
27.8%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-5
26.6%
Shea Patterson sacked by Andrew Dowell for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
28.4%
Quinn Nordin 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5131% → 30%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
31.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+15
31.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 15 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
31.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
30.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+16
30.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 38 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 16 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2373% → 71%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
27.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Karan Higdon for no gain to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
27.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-Jones, broken up by Xavier HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
29.0%
Will Hart punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
31.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:5932% → 30%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
31.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 20 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Chase Winovich) to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
34.1%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Bush) to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Justin LayneSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
35.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-10
33.7%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Layne, Justin, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Reid, Jordan) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 20
OPP 38
-1
31.8%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
29.5%
Tyler Hunt punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:4571% → 69%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
29.5%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
29.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 9
-2
30.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 7 Chris Evans fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Brandon Bouyer-RandleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3335% → 51%
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
35.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.3%
Brian Lewerke 4 Yd pass from Darrell Stewart Jr. (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3256% → 53%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
43.6%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-1
43.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 14Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
45.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Grant Perry, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+10
47.0%
Will Hart punt for 50 yds , Shakur Brown returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 46 Shakur Brown fumbled, recovered by Mich Joe HewlettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:4560% → 61%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
40.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+10
43.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 10 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+13
41.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 13 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
39.6%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-1
39.5%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 23 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Tyriq ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1449% → 46%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
48.6%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
48.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
46.7%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
46.2%
Tyler Hunt punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3154% → 51%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
45.6%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
45.6%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
47.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+7
49.1%
Will Hart punt for 37 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5754% → 48%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
50
-15
53.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the 50 yard line MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 25
OWN 35
0
49.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 25
OWN 35
+8
49.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
49.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
47.6%
Tyler Hunt punt for 36 yds, downed at the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
26.2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones 79 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1929% → 27%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Tyler Hunt punt for 59 yds, downed at the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:3874% → 94%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
26.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
26.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 16 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
24.9%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+14
24.2%
Karan Higdon run for 14 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.2%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
20.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+8
20.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 8 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+11
22.3%
Shea Patterson run for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
19.2%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
18.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
18.9%
Shea Patterson run for 11 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
18.8%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.4%
Ben Mason 5 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:519% → 8%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
7.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
7.6%
Tyler Hunt punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 6:2294% → 97%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.2%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
6.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
6.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
5.8%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
4.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
4.7%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
4.3%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 7
50
-5
3.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Andrew Stueber) to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+6
4.0%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
3.0%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-15
3.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
3.2%
Will Hart punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:014% → 3%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
3.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 10 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Onwenu) to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
3.7%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Stewart Jr., Darrell, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Thomas, Ambry) 14 yards to the MICHIGAN48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
3.9%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Stewart Jr., Darrell, PENALTY MICHIGAN substitution infraction 5 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+10
4.1%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Heyward, Connor, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer 10 yards to the MICHIGAN33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
3.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-11
4.0%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-4
3.4%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Michael Onwenu for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0698% → 98%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.9%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
1.9%
Ben Mason run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
50
-2
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-3
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:24
Donovan Peoples-Jones 79 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-21.3
TD · Q3 11:12
Brian Lewerke 4 Yd pass from Darrell Stewart Jr. (Matt Coghlin Kick)
+16.2
TD · Q4 10:21
Ben Mason 5 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com