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MSU

Michigan State 21 at Penn State 17

PSU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:08 · Tyler Hunt punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense+6.0Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:10: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:21: Jake Pinegar 20 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40: Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:19: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +67.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:13: Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 00:13 — PSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 11:16MSU 4th & 9 at PSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35MSU 4th & 8 at PSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:37MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:28PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:38MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:09PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:16MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:20PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:51MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:40PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:08MSU 4th & 10 at PSU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:44PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:26PSU 4th & 4 at MSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:06PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:32MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:21PSU 4th & 7 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−10.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:36MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:21PSU 4th & 2 at MSU 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%−5.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−25.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:19MSU 4th & 6 at PSU 22, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.8 ptsWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%−3.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−14.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:09PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−4.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:46MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 35, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−1.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:19PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 35, up 3
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:03PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:25MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:33PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:10MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:19MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:3919% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
81.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 9 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
80.8%
Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
80.5%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
80.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
80.4%
Tyler Hunt punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1680% → 80%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.3%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
80.2%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+23
79.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 23 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
80.2%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+13
80.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 13 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
80.1%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by Khari Willis, recovered by MchSt Tyriq ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5921% → 21%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
79.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 18 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
78.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-3
78.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
78.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+1
78.9%
Tyler Hunt punt for 38 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 12 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 94 yds · 1:1579% → 82%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
78.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 6 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
78.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+78
78.5%
Miles Sanders run for 78 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1319% → 19%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
80.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
80.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Higby) to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
81.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
81.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0081% → 80%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
81.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
80.8%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+9
80.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 40 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:3620% → 26%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
80.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.3%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+26
80.8%
Connor Heyward run for 26 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
79.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+36
79.3%
Connor Heyward pass complete to Cam Chambers for 36 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the PnSt 1 La'Darius Jefferson fumbled, recovered by MchSt La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.0%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (C.J. Thorpe) to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5476% → 75%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
77.0%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the PENNST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
76.0%
Ricky Slade run for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
75.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
75.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3425% → 25%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
75.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-2
74.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+1
75.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+15
75.4%
Tyler Hunt punt for 44 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 15 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5677% → 75%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
76.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Juwan Johnson) to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+8
75.8%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
76.8%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
76.5%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
75.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5928% → 27%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
71.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
72.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
73.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0175% → 82%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
74.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
75.5%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
74.8%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
75.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+48
82.2%
Miles Sanders run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:4820% → 20%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
80.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Khari WillisSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+10
81.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
80.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+11
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 11 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
79.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
79.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
78.5%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
79.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
80.4%
Tyler Hunt punt for 49 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4080% → 80%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
80.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+1
80.1%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
80.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+9
79.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2922% → 19%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
78.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
78.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+7
81.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
81.5%
Tyler Hunt punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
81.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5681% → 79%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.7%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Garrett TaylorSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
79.7%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-3
79.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4620% → 23%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
79.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 10 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
79.4%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+16
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
77.3%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+13
77.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
77.1%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
75.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+37
77.4%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Garrett Taylor return for 37 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4884% → 82%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
84.0%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
84.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+4
83.1%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-7
82.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5721% → 41%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
78.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
78.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+11
77.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
76.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 25 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
58.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4368% → 66%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.5%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
68.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
68.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
65.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds , Laress Nelson returns for no gain, Nelson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Laress Nelson at the MSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2337% → 35%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
63.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-1
62.6%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
63.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Khari WillisSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+1
65.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 42 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:5668% → 66%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
68.0%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
68.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 10 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
69.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 25 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
70.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
70.4%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
68.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
66.3%
Jake Pinegar 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3739% → 36%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
60.7%
Weston Bridges run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19 Weston Bridges fumbled, forced by Yetur Gross-Matos, recovered by MchSt Weston BridgesSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
61.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
62.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
64.1%
Tyler Hunt punt for 38 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:1568% → 75%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
67.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+13
67.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 13 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
68.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Nick Bowers for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
69.9%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
69.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
69.3%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+21
67.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 21 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
69.1%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.5%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
75.4%
Jake Pinegar 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:4430% → 35%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
70.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Dotson) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
68.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
66.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 7 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
64.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 27 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
61.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
62.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+4
62.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
65.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Raequan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:3175% → 77%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
74.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.0%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
78.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
76.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
77.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Laress Nelson at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0431% → 23%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
68.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+10
70.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
70.3%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
76.6%
Tyler Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2286% → 89%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
86.0%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
86.4%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+5
87.8%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+11
89.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 11 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 0:5119% → 95%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
81.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 11 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
81.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 21 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
76.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 11 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
71.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
72.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
4.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 31Uncategorized
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0517% → 16%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
17.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 20 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-67.2
TD · Q3 6:10
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-17.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com