Try the model
NU

Northwestern 29 at Michigan State 19

MSU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:08 · Tyler Hunt punt for 35 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 16 Riley Lees fumbled, recovered by Nwest Riley Lees
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+29.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:58: Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +5.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:18: Felton Davis III run for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 4:08: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:15: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 21 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Solomon Vault for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +24.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:51: Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:08MSU 4th & 9 at NU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:40NU 4th & 3 at MSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:09MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:59MSU 4th & 4 at NU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:04MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:44NU 4th & 19 at NU 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50MSU 4th & 4 at NU 7, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:50NU 4th & 5 at NU 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MSU 4th & 3 at NU 42, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−2.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:43NU 4th & 6 at MSU 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:08NU 4th & 6 at MSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−14.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:41NU 4th & 9 at MSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−20.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:41MSU 4th & 25 at MSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−5.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:08NU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.2 ptsPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−5.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:59MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%−7.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:50MSU 4th & 1 at NU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−5.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−10.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 0:18NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:58NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:18MSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:08MSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:15NU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:51NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Joe BachieSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
80.1%
Jake Collins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
50
+1
79.9%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
79.8%
Tyler Hunt punt for 35 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 16 Riley Lees fumbled, recovered by Nwest Riley LeesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
79.5%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+16
79.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
79.4%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+6
79.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+15
79.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 15 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
79.3%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
79.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
79.4%
Jake Collins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
78.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
78.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+14
78.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
78.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 63 yds, downed at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
77.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
77.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
77.4%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+10
77.4%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Khari Willis return for 10 yds to the MICHIGANST 45 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:3278% → 77%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
78.1%
Connor Heyward run for 9 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
78.3%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
78.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
78.3%
Weston Bridges run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
78.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
78.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
78.3%
Felton Davis III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
78.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon Sowards, broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
77.1%
Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4123% → 26%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.1%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
73.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 77 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1374% → 73%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
73.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
72.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+6
72.6%
Tyler Hunt punt for 40 yds , Riley Lees returns for 6 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:3928% → 33%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
72.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+10
72.1%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Jefferson, JJ, PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU34, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
66.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:4867% → 66%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
67.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
66.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
66.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 21 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
67.6%
Alante Thomas run for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-3
67.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-15
67.3%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Heyward, Connor for 18 yards to the NU25 (Jackson, Bryce), PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 22
OWN 42
0
65.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 22
OWN 42
0
65.5%
Tyler Hunt punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
62.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 17 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
61.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and Mike Panasiuk for a loss of 12 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 22
OWN 18
-1
62.5%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 23
OWN 17
+4
62.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 19
OWN 21
+9
63.3%
Jake Collins punt for 55 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:1958% → 57%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
58.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
59.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+26
58.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 26 yds to the MICHIGANST 28 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
61.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
61.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 15 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
61.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
61.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
55.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for no gain to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
57.2%
Matt Coghlin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
53.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan, broken up by Joe BachieSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.1%
Jake Collins punt for 56 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0054% → 57%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
54.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+15
53.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
55.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 16 yds to the MICHIGANST 47 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
57.3%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Jared McGee return for 17 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
50.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-15
49.9%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Skowronek, B., PENALTY NU pass interference 15 yards to the NU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 22
OWN 36
-1
53.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
53.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
54.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
56.9%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-8
56.3%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+15
53.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 15 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
55.2%
Tyler Hunt punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
48.6%
Drake Anderson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
47.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
46.1%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+9
46.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
45.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Raequan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
47.6%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2146% → 66%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
46.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 21 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt Sokol, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
48.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 11 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
66.2%
Felton Davis III run for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
59.5%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
60.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Mike Panasiuk return for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3167% → 79%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
67.3%
Laress Nelson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
67.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
67.3%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
67.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+15
65.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY NU pass interference 15 yards to the NU3, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5327% → 55%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
73.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
70.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
68.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
69.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
69.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
68.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+18
69.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 18 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
45.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 21 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Solomon Vault for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:1554% → 52%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.7%
Laress Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
53.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
52.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 8 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
54.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Bridges, Weston for no gain to the MSU37, PENALTY MSU illegal forward pass 4 yards to the MSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
53.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+9
51.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
52.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:2754% → 66%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett Skowronek, broken up by Jacub PanasiukSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+21
46.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 21 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
43.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-5
42.8%
Lees, Riley rush for no gain to the NU47 (Jones, Naquan;Reschke, Jon), PENALTY NU illegal procedure 5 yards to the NU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+29
43.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 29 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
40.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Tre PersonSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
42.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+9
45.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
39.8%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
39.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-3
41.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+34
34.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0042% → 37%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
41.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Alante Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-4
41.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Trent Goens for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 20
OWN 10
-5
39.0%
Lewerke, Brian rush for 15 yards to the MSU25 (Bergin, Chris), PENALTY MSU holding 5 yards to the MSU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 25
OWN 5
0
38.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Connor Heyward, broken up by Earnest Brown IVSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 25
OWN 5
+11
36.8%
Tyler Hunt punt for 39 yds , Riley Lees returns for 11 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1677% → 74%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
23.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+2
25.4%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
25.8%
Jake Collins punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
34.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 9 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
34.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
32.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
31.1%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1882% → 93%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
17.6%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
16.5%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
7.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
4.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
4.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
4.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 15 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
5.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 13 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
6.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 27 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by JR PaceSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
5.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 5 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:15
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 21 yds for a TD (Clayton Thorson pass to Solomon Vault for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.7
TD · Q3 7:18
Felton Davis III run for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+18.2
TD · Q3 4:08
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com