Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 20 at Michigan State 31

MSU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:39 · Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds, downed at the MchSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+42.9Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:23: Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:24: Connor Heyward run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:18: La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:08: Ryan Tice 40 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +1.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:44: Jonathan Ward pass complete to Tony Poljan for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:09CMU 4th & 2 at MSU 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:02MSU 4th & 7 at CMU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 20, up 3
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:50CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:42MSU 4th & 10 at CMU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:39MSU 4th & 1 at CMU 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:29MSU 4th & 3 at CMU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:19CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08CMU 4th & 7 at MSU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:08MSU 4th & 24 at MSU 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:50CMU 4th & 1 at MSU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:49MSU 4th & 2 at CMU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:57MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:23MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:24MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:18MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:29CMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:44CMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:513% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
97.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 35 yds to the MICHIGANST 30 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
97.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
97.2%
Damon Terry run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+3
97.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
96.9%
Ryan Tice 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
96.9%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
96.9%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
96.9%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
96.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-5
96.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
96.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
96.9%
Tyler Hunt punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jamil SabbaghSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
96.4%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 4 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+2
96.4%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 43 yds , Cody White returns for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
96.1%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
50
0
96.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
50
+1
96.1%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+15
96.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the CMU34, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+15
96.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 15 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.2%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted, touchback. Sean Bunting return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
94.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-1
94.8%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 14Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+5
94.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+10
94.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Drayton Law for 10 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
94.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds, downed at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4994% → 93%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
94.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 20 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-3
94.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
93.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
93.3%
Tyler Hunt punt for 40 yds, downed at the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
93.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Mitch StanitzekSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+7
93.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Drayton Law for 7 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
93.3%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass incomplete to CHILDRESS, B., PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the CMU43, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Sean Bunting, broken up by Gerald OwensSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
93.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+30
93.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted David Dowell return for 30 yds to the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 2:0394% → 94%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
93.5%
Andre Welch run for 11 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
93.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
93.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
93.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 10 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
93.1%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Raequan Williams and Jack Camper for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+5
93.4%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 5 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+3
93.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+2
93.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 36 yds , Cody White returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
92.7%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
92.7%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU48, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
93.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
93.2%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY CMU pass interference 4 yards to the CMU45, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.2%
Weston Bridges run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
93.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-2
93.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
92.5%
Tyler Hunt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jamil Sabbagh at the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
91.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
91.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jamil SabbaghSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
92.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
92.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds, downed at the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:5293% → 95%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
92.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+9
92.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
92.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 24 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
92.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
92.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete, broken up by Mike PanasiukSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
94.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+6
94.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass intercepted Justin Layne return for 6 yds to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
94.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
94.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 9 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
94.3%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
94.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 4 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-2
94.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+5
94.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
95.3%
Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:135% → 5%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
94.6%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 18
OWN 29
-1
95.2%
Tommy Lazzaro sacked by Brandon Bouyer-Randle for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 28 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:2796% → 99%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
95.7%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
95.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
95.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 6 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
95.7%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
95.7%
Andre Welch run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+37
95.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 37 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.7%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 2Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Cameron Cole run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
98.1%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
98.2%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+24
98.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 45 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 24 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:4299% → 100%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
98.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 19 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
98.6%
Weston Bridges run for 9 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
98.6%
Weston Bridges run for 4 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
98.6%
Weston Bridges run for 4 yds to the CMich 8 Weston Bridges fumbled,Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
98.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
98.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
98.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 2Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:490% → 1%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
99.8%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Brandon Childress for 7 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds to the MICHIGANST 37 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 4
OPP 47
+16
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 16 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.7%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+5
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+16
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Cameron Cole for 16 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
99.8%
LAZZARO, Tommy rush for 4 yards to the MSU7 (Dowell, Andrew), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the MSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+10
99.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 10 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
99.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:191% → 3%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.1%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 4 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+19
99.0%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
98.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Bernhard Raimann, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
99.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
97.3%
Ryan Tice 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
99.1%
Weston Bridges run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
99.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-11
99.1%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Robi Stuart for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 19
OWN 29
-5
99.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 24
OWN 24
+3
99.0%
Tyler Hunt punt for 48 yds , Jamil Sabbagh returns for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:063% → 9%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
97.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+21
97.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Julian Hicks for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
97.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+1
97.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 14
50
0
97.5%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by David DowellSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 14
50
+13
97.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 13 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+8
97.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 8 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
91.3%
Jonathan Ward pass complete to Tony Poljan for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
16 plays · 67 yds · 4:5595% → 98%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
95.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 14 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
95.4%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+12
95.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 12 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
95.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
95.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
96.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 15 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
96.1%
Weston Bridges run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
97.9%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
98.2%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+2
98.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
Jonathan Ward pass complete to Tony Poljan for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q3 10:24
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 2:23
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com