Try the model
USU

Utah State 31 at Michigan State 38

MSU
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2018 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.9MSU 91.1%Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 6 · Q1 2:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:54 · Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+39.3Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +6.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:41: Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Gaje Ferguson return for 40 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +10.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:23: Matt Coghlin 24 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:05: Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +39.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:00: Connor Heyward run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis III for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +36.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:30MSU 4th & 10 at USU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30USU 4th & 1 at USU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:54MSU 4th & 14 at USU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54USU 4th & 5 at MSU 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:38USU 4th & 10 at MSU 40, up 1
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 27, down 1
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:06USU 4th & 7 at USU 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:22MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:55USU 4th & 7 at MSU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:23MSU 4th & 6 at USU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−14.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:58USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:49MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:55USU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:06MSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:41USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:05USU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−2.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:00MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:025% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
94.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 28 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
94.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 12 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
94.8%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
94.8%
LOVE, JORDAN pass incomplete to TARVER, R., PENALTY MSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+21
94.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 21 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:2594% → 93%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+40
94.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 40 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
94.2%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
94.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-6
94.2%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
93.3%
Matt Coghlin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.3%
Aaren Vaughns run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+14
93.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 14 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-3
93.3%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 5:0793% → 91%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
93.0%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
93.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+28
93.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 28 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for no gain to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY USU pass interference 4 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
93.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
93.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jontrell Rocquemore for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
91.1%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
91.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
91.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
50
+2
91.0%
Eltoro Allen run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 0
+3
90.8%
Eltoro Allen run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax Raymond, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
91.3%
Taylor Hintze punt for 25 yds, downed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:2590% → 91%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
90.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 20 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
90.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
90.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
90.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
90.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 49 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by UthSt Devon Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Eltoro Allen for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
88.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
88.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
89.4%
Taylor Hintze punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 7 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
89.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+13
88.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 13 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
88.4%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Khari Willis return for 20 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:1690% → 92%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
89.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 32 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
90.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4810% → 17%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
90.3%
LOVE, JORDAN pass complete to NELSON, DJ for 17 yards to the USU45 (Bouyer-Randle;Bachie, Joe), PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the USU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+18
90.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 18 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
90.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+25
90.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 25 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
89.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+10
89.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 10 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.2%
Darwin Thompson run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
89.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+9
89.6%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2786% → 90%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
86.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
86.2%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
86.9%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
86.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+7
87.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
87.2%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
87.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
87.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
84.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 16 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
85.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
90.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
88.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
88.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:4389% → 94%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.8%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
88.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Shaquez BondSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+27
88.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 27 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.8%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
89.9%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
89.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Luke Campbell for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+14
89.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
90.0%
Heyward, Connor rush for no gain to the USU21 (ADEOYE, A.;CHRISTIANSEN, C), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the USU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+14
89.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 14 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
94.1%
Connor Heyward run for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
92.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 6 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 3 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
92.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
92.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Taylor Hintze punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
93.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
93.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-5
93.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+1
93.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:228% → 11%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
92.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 13 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
91.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
91.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
91.2%
LOVE, JORDAN pass incomplete to TARVER, R., PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU25, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
91.0%
Jordan Love sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 15 yards to the MchSt 40 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jordan Love , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+3
92.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 22
OPP 37
+15
92.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 15 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
89.2%
Dominik Eberle 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+40
79.5%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Gaje Ferguson return for 40 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 6:1179% → 88%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
79.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
80.7%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Davis, Felton, PENALTY USU delay of game 5 yards to the MSU41, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
80.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
81.3%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Stewart, D., PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the USU40, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
82.0%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
81.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
81.9%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 15 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
81.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 5 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
81.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
80.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the UthSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.9%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
80.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
88.3%
Matt Coghlin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:1819% → 59%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
78.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
79.8%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
79.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 11 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
77.3%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
50
+5
77.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
77.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
76.8%
Eltoro Allen run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
76.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson Terrell, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+7
77.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
75.2%
LOVE, JORDAN pass complete to THOMPSON, D. for 5 yards to the MSU25 (Thompson, Tyriq), PENALTY MSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+2
74.7%
Jordan Love run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+7
74.7%
LOVE, JORDAN pass incomplete to GREENE, JALEN, PENALTY MSU pass interference 7 yards to the MSU16, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
74.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 11 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
74.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion Tarver, broken up by Justin LayneSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0556% → 95%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
56.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 5 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
57.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
60.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+31
61.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 31 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
65.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
65.2%
LJ Scott run for 14 yds to the UthSt 6 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
65.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
96.1%
Connor Heyward run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
95.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:008% → 11%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
92.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
91.9%
Jordan Love sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24 UTAH ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
92.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 21 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
88.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
88.9%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Joe Bachie return for 1 yd to the UthSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0297% → 97%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
96.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-3
96.9%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-2
96.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:05
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-39.8
TD · Q4 2:00
Connor Heyward run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis III for Two-Point Conversion)
+36.8
TD · Q3 1:41
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Gaje Ferguson return for 40 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com