2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:38 · Anthony McFarland run for 10 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 12:25: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +28.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:50: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 27 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +27.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:41: Dwayne Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +37.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:41: Anthony McFarland run for no gain Anthony McFarland fumbled, recovered by Mary Chigoziem Okonkwo for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +28.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:40: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +46.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:16OSU 4th & 5 at MD 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%77% to makePunt75.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:13OSU 4th & 1 at MD 24, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.9%71% to convertField goal71.3%−0.668% to makePunt69.6%−2.4average punt
- Q1 2:06MD 4th & 7 at OSU 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snapGo for it30.9%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call31.3%77% to makePunt27.7%−3.6average punt
- Q2 14:50OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.2%−0.931% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.1%average punt
- Q2 10:32MD 4th & 25 at OSU 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snapGo for it40.9%−3.17% to convertField goalTheir call44.0%51% to makePunt42.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 7:38MD 4th & 3 at OSU 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.2%53% to convertField goal40.1%−1.240% to makePunt39.9%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:22MD 4th & 3 at OSU 49, up 7Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:13MD 4th & 4 at MD 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it59.6%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q3 4:04MD 4th & 5 at OSU 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%average punt
- Q3 1:52OSU 4th & 4 at MD 38, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it39.2%48% to convertField goal36.1%−3.138% to makePuntTheir call35.9%−3.2average punt
- Q4 14:55MD 4th & 12 at MD 4, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snapGo for it67.6%−5.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.2%average punt
- Q4 9:00MD 4th & 8 at OSU 46, tiedNumbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 50.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.6%−1.134% to convertField goal45.5%−5.223% to makePunt50.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:10MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.0%97% to makeGo for two20.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:05MD Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.1%97% to makeGo for two24.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:21OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.5%97% to makeGo for two63.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:02MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.1%97% to makeGo for two54.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:15MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.1%97% to makeGo for two63.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:35OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.2%97% to makeGo for two44.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:25OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.2%97% to makeGo for two49.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:50MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.0%97% to makeGo for two76.3%−1.845% to convert
- Q4 3:41OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two43.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:40OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.3%97% to makeGo for two37.5%−3.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3016% → 16%
MDDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-8
16.2%
Jeshaun Jones run for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 29 Jeshaun Jones fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FG11 plays · 52 yds · 4:3984% → 81%
MDDrive 4TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS12 plays · 38 yds · 4:3780% → 76%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
20.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 7 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
21.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 8 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-3
21.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the Mary 29 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnnie Dixon) to the Mary 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6FG6 plays · 57 yds · 2:0425% → 31%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+56
25.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dontay Demus for 56 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 2:0569% → 66%
MDDrive 8MISSED FG7 plays · 46 yds · 4:0836% → 42%
OSUDrive 9TD1 play · 68 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
32.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 68 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:5835% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4752% → 63%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+39
49.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 39 yds to the MARYLAND 21 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tino Ellis) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 43 yds · 1:1743% → 44%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
42.6%
Javon Leake run for 6 yds to the Mary 29 Javon Leake fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13FUMBLE6 plays · 85 yds · 0:4356% → 62%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
44.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+13
44.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 13 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+52
38.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 38 yds to the MARYLAND 28 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (RaVon Davis) to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
38.8%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to McLaurin, Terry, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Davis, RaVon) 7 yards to the MARYLAND7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
38.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds J.K. Dobbins fumbled, recovered by Mary Ayinde EleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15INT TD3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4055% → 40%
OSUDrive 16TD11 plays · 73 yds · 2:3040% → 57%
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
60.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
60.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 3 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+14
61.1%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Dixon, Johnnie, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Lewis, Rayshad) 14 yards to the MARYLAND40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
60.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1051% → 56%
Q3 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
50.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Darryl Jones for 8 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FUMBLE8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2547% → 47%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+10
54.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 10 yds Johnnie Dixon fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-4
51.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 43 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malcolm Pridgeon) to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 2
50
+4
52.8%
Dwayne Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mary 46 Dwayne Haskins fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1965% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 54 yds · 2:0840% → 41%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
59.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 12 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
60.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 20 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
58.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 16 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
56.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Dixon, Johnnie, PENALTY OHIOST illegal touching (Dixon, Johnnie) 0 yards to the MARYLAND38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
59.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5567% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1039% → 62%
MDDrive 23TD11 plays · 83 yds · 4:1947% → 84%
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
52.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for no gain to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+15
49.1%
Wade Lees pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 15 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
57.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Darryl Jones, broken up by Jeffrey OkudahSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
84.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 27 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5923% → 63%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
76.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 35 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+11
76.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
73.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
74.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 5 yds to the Mary 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25TD10 plays · 61 yds · 1:2862% → 96%
Q4 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
60.1%
Pigrome, Tyrrell pass incomplete to Jones, Jeshaun, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference 5 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.7%
Anthony McFarland run for no gain Anthony McFarland fumbled, recovered by Mary Chigoziem Okonkwo for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD10 plays · 50 yds · 0:5012% → 63%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+11
87.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 11 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
86.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+17
87.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 17 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+14
83.4%
Dwayne Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to K.J. Hill, broken up by Darnell Savage Jr.Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
83.5%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Hill, K.J., PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Davis, RaVon) 3 yards to the MARYLAND3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 10 yds · 0:3456% → 55%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
56.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 30 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-14
62.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 14 yards to the Mary 48 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 24
OWN 48
-6
54.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28TD8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+11
47.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Rashod Berry for 11 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
40.5%
Haskins, Dwayne pass complete to Berry, Rashod for 4 yards to the MARYLAND1, PENALTY OHIOST personal foul (Pridgeon, Malcolm) 15 yards to the MARYLAND20, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+15
40.8%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete to Campbell, Parris, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Richardson, Antwaine) 15 yards to the MARYLAND5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:40
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-46.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-44.2
TD · Q4 3:41
Dwayne Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-37.5