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MSU

Michigan State 24 at Maryland 3

MD
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:56 · Bryce Baringer punt for 8 yds, downed at the MchSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−27.3Score differential−13.2Pregame prior−3.1Garbage-time factor−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:45: La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Mary 43 — MSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:17: Connor Heyward run for 5 yds, Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchSt Max Rosenthal for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:47: La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 31 — MSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:57: Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down — MD win probability +5.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:00: Connor Heyward run for 80 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:55MD 4th & 2 at MD 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29MSU 4th & 1 at MD 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32MSU 4th & 5 at MD 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:02MD 4th & 8 at MD 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20MD 4th & 6 at MSU 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:14MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 26, up 10
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:13MD 4th & 6 at MSU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14MSU 4th & 11 at MD 40, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:00MSU 4th & 10 at MD 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:10MD 4th & 16 at MD 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−3.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:29MD 4th & 12 at MD 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:56MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:12MD 4th & 18 at MSU 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:25MD 4th & 7 at MSU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:07MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:57MD 4th & 14 at MD 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:55MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:17MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:00MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0038% → 39%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.3%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
38.6%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.6%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds, downed at the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:5161% → 63%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
38.7%
Connor Heyward run for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
38.8%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
39.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
39.0%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
39.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
39.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+24
39.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 24 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
39.1%
Jalen Nailor run for 6 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
39.3%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+3
39.7%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
39.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
36.9%
Connor Heyward run for 18 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -22 yds · 1:5638% → 37%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
37.8%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Anthony McFarland for 2 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-6
37.8%
Anthony McFarland run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 26 Anthony McFarland fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-5
37.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 19
OWN 21
-13
37.1%
Kasim Hill sacked by Kenny Willekes and Brandon Bouyer-Randle for a loss of 13 yards to the Mary 8 Kasim Hill fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 32
OWN 8
0
36.8%
Wade Lees punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0764% → 64%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
36.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 22 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
36.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
36.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
36.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
36.4%
Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2335% → 35%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
34.9%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
34.8%
Wade Lees punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4964% → 63%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
35.7%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-5
36.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
36.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
36.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for no gain to the Mary 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:4035% → 34%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
35.3%
Javon Leake run for 1 yd to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
34.9%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+14
34.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 14 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
35.8%
Kasim Hill run for 7 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
36.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darryl Jones for 6 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.8%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
34.9%
Anthony McFarland run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
34.8%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Dontay Demus for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-5
34.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
33.7%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:5765% → 67%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
35.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+2
35.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+8
35.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 8 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
34.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-4
34.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+10
35.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the MchSt 26 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
33.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5433% → 36%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
33.4%
Kasim Hill run for 12 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
34.1%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
34.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darryl Jones for 7 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+8
33.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 8 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
33.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
33.8%
Hill, Kasim pass incomplete to Cobbs, Brian, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer 8 yards to the MICHIGANST7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Anthony McFarlandSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
33.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
32.8%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
36.2%
Joseph Petrino 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:5167% → 70%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
32.4%
Weston Bridges run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
32.3%
Weston Bridges run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
31.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Weston BridgesSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+24
30.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Mbi Tanyi) to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
29.3%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+11
30.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 11 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+2
28.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 35
-5
29.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
30.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 21 yds, downed at the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
32.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:4570% → 69%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
29.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
29.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
29.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
29.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
29.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
29.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
31.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4533% → 30%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
32.6%
Anthony McFarland run for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
32.5%
Taivon Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-7
31.3%
Kasim Hill sacked by Brandon Bouyer-Randle for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 7Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 16
OWN 7
+5
30.4%
Wade Lees punt for 67 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:4869% → 88%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
30.7%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
29.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
28.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 8 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+10
28.1%
Connor Heyward run for 10 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
27.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Brandon Sowards for 12 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
26.5%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
26.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
26.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
25.9%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+3
25.4%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
12.5%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds, Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchSt Max Rosenthal for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4316% → 15%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
16.3%
Kasim Hill sacked by Kenny Willekes and Tyriq Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 16
OWN 26
0
15.3%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+4
14.9%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Avery Edwards for 4 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
14.7%
Wade Lees punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2687% → 87%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
13.1%
Weston Bridges run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
12.9%
Weston Bridges run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
12.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
13.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 8 yds, downed at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5017% → 16%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
17.0%
Jeshaun Jones run for 7 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-1
17.0%
Anthony McFarland run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
16.4%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the MchSt 28 Javon Leake fumbled, forced by Joe Bachie, recovered by MchSt Joe BachieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4188% → 90%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
11.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
10.1%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted RaVon Davis return for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4516% → 13%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
15.7%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
16.5%
Anthony McFarland run for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-9
15.6%
Kasim Hill sacked by Naquan Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 37 Kasim Hill fumbled, recovered by Mary Kasim Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 18
OPP 37
0
13.6%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
13.0%
Wade Lees punt for 27 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5691% → 92%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
9.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
9.0%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+12
8.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted, touchback. Byron Cowart return for 12 yds Byron Cowart fumbled, forced by Darrell Stewart Jr., recovered by MchSt Matt DotsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
2.0%
Connor Heyward run for 80 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:303% → 3%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.7%
Anthony McFarland run for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+21
2.7%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 21 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.9%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
2.8%
Anthony McFarland run for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
2.8%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
2.8%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1098% → 99%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
1.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
1.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+1
1.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
1.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:052% → 1%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
1.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
1.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Jeshaun Jones for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 10 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
1.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
1.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-8
1.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
1.2%
Wade Lees punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
0.7%
Weston Bridges run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+7
0.5%
Weston Bridges run for 7 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
0.5%
Weston Bridges run for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
0.4%
Weston Bridges run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:17
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds, Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchSt Max Rosenthal for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q4 11:00
Connor Heyward run for 80 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-6.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:57
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com