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MD

Maryland 21 at Michigan 42

MICH
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:09 · Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICHIGAN 35 MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+32.0Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:21: Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:16: Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:13: Quinn Nordin 31 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:15: Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 34 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:28: Javon Leake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +7.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:52MICH 4th & 3 at MD 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54MD 4th & 20 at MICH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47MICH 4th & 1 at MD 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:09MD 4th & 8 at MD 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:21MICH 4th & 2 at MD 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:27MD 4th & 4 at MICH 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22MD 4th & 15 at MD 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:13MICH 4th & 10 at MD 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:26MD 4th & 7 at MD 5, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:03MD 4th & 6 at MICH 15, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:10MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:21MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:16MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:15MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:28MD Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:37MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:25MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:50MD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5888% → 87%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
87.8%
Karan Higdon run for 18 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
87.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ben Mason for 15 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.6%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
87.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+40
87.0%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds for a touchback MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5313% → 14%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.9%
Hill, Kasim pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer (Bush, Devin) 15 yards to the MARYLAND40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
86.8%
Anthony McFarland run for 6 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
86.6%
Anthony McFarland run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+18
86.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 18 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-3
86.1%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 13
OPP 38
-7
86.1%
Kasim Hill sacked by Michael Dwumfour for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
86.1%
Wade Lees punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:0186% → 85%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
85.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
85.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 12 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
85.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
50
+5
85.7%
Higdon, Karan rush for 3 yards to the MARYLAND47, PENALTY MARYLAND offside (Brooks Jr., Antoine) 5 yards to the MARYLAND45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+12
85.6%
Karan Higdon run for 12 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
85.6%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
85.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
85.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
84.8%
Ben Mason run for no gain to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2316% → 16%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
84.3%
Kasim Hill sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+6
84.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 6 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
84.0%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+29
84.3%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICHIGAN 35 MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4085% → 84%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
84.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 31 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
84.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
84.6%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+5
84.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 5 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
84.2%
Quinn Nordin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4382% → 82%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
81.5%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
81.9%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Darnell Savage Jr. return for 5 yds to the Mich 34 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3320% → 20%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
79.9%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
79.8%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
79.7%
Kasim Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 5:5980% → 83%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
79.7%
Ben Mason run for 6 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
79.6%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+6
78.6%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.8%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+51
78.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 51 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
80.3%
Grant Perry pass complete to Sean McKeon for 12 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
80.0%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
79.6%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
78.3%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.8%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.1%
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:5119% → 19%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.4%
Anthony McFarland run for 15 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
80.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
80.3%
Pigrome, Tyrrell pass complete to Fleet-Davis, Tayon for 3 yards to the MARYLAND43, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Christie, Sean) 10 yards to the MARYLAND30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+1
81.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+4
81.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 4 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+17
81.5%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 17 yds to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:5982% → 87%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
81.6%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
82.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
81.7%
Ben Mason run for 2 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
82.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 6 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
82.2%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
81.3%
Ben Mason run for 3 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 6 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
81.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
81.1%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
81.7%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
86.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -11 yds · 3:1214% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
85.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+5
85.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
85.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Avery Edwards) to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-15
86.7%
McFarland, Anthony rush for 4 yards to the MARYLAND39, PENALTY MARYLAND face mask (Christie, Sean) 15 yards to the MARYLAND20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 30
OWN 20
0
86.8%
Anthony McFarland run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 30
OWN 20
-6
87.3%
Kasim Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 36
OWN 14
+4
87.7%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 4 yds to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:2788% → 91%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
87.8%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+19
87.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 19 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
88.0%
Patterson, Shea pass complete to Peoples-Jones, Donovan for 40 yards to the MARYLAND0, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Wilson, Tru) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 20
50
+19
87.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 19 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
88.3%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
88.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Rayshad Lewis) to the Mary 13 for a 1ST down (Rayshad Lewis was ejected for Targeting)Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
88.3%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-5
88.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Cesar Ruiz) to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+2
88.3%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
88.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
91.0%
Quinn Nordin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:389% → 9%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
90.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 4
-1
90.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+2
91.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
91.3%
Wade Lees punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mary 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:3293% → 98%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
93.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the Mary 37 (Tre Watson was ejected for Targeting)Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
93.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
92.8%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
93.4%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+34
98.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 34 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:362% → 9%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
98.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 14 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 3 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
98.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 1 yd to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+19
98.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 19 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 1 yd to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
98.1%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 5 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+8
98.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.0%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
98.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
98.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-5
98.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Marcus Minor) to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+12
98.8%
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 12 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.5%
McFarland, Anthony rush for no gain to the MICHIGAN3, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 2 yards to the MICHIGAN1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.5%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
Kasim Hill run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Javon Leake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:3595% → 99%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
94.8%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+16
95.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 16 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
95.4%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+2
95.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 2 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
95.6%
Tru Wilson run for 28 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.0%
Tru Wilson run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.1%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+13
96.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tru Wilson for 5 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Isaiah Davis) to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Jared Wangler 7 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Ben Mason Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19INT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:591% → 0%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.3%
Anthony McFarland run for 6 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Anthony McFarland for 7 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 6 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+46
99.9%
Kasim Hill pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Watson return for 46 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:270% → 1%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
DJ Turner run for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+42
100.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 42 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
99.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 20 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome 5 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 5 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
99.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
99.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:28
Javon Leake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 0:16
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q3 2:15
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 34 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com