Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 13 at Maryland 42

MD
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Kasim Hill run for 2 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+6.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:03: Ty Johnson run for 81 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +5.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:43: Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 54 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +9.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:54: Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +6.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:14: Zack Annexstad pass intercepted for a TD Tre Watson return for 36 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +9.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:27: Anthony McFarland run for 64 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +9.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 2 at MINN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48MD 4th & 5 at MD 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:19MINN 4th & 19 at MINN 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04MINN 4th & 10 at MD 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:00MD 4th & 11 at MD 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:27MINN 4th & 7 at MD 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:57MD 4th & 2 at MD 17, up 11
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:17MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:43MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:31MD 4th & 6 at MD 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:09MINN 4th & 1 at MD 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−2.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:24MINN 4th & 8 at MD 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−7.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 4 at MD 8, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    -1.7%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:39MD 4th & 6 at MD 19, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:31MINN 4th & 5 at MD 9, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:42MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:43MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:54MINN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:14MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:27MD Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:12MD Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1857% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Avery Edwards for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
56.5%
Jeshaun Jones run for 27 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
56.5%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
56.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
56.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+13
56.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 13 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
56.5%
Kasim Hill run for 2 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
56.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 8 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
58.9%
Anthony McFarland run for 26 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.3%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Bateman, Rashod, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Davis, RaVon) 15 yards to the MINN40, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-8
57.9%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Antoine Brooks Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
58.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
58.5%
Jacob Herbers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
59.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Derwin Gray) to the Mary 6Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 6
0
59.1%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+5
59.1%
Anthony McFarland run for 5 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+5
58.9%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Dontay Demus for 5 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
58.7%
Wade Lees punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
59.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
59.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
59.1%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 7
50
0
59.0%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 7
50
-12
59.3%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 12 yards to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 19
OWN 38
-3
60.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 50 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:4761% → 66%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
60.8%
Anthony McFarland run for 10 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
66.1%
Ty Johnson run for 81 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:5535% → 35%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
64.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
64.4%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
66.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete, broken up by Antoine Brooks Jr.Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+10
67.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 10 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+17
66.7%
Seth Green run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Byron Cowart) to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
65.7%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
65.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Ko Kieft for 19 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
66.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
66.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
67.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
65.4%
Emmit Carpenter 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
65.9%
Kasim Hill run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
65.8%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
65.3%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
64.8%
Wade Lees punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.1%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Douglas, D, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Mosley, Jordan) 15 yards to the MINN40, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
66.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 13 yds to the MARYLAND 47 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
65.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
65.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
66.8%
Jacob Herbers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
68.8%
Taivon Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
69.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
68.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
67.9%
Wade Lees punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
68.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
68.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
69.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:5571% → 82%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
71.2%
Taivon Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+20
71.3%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 20 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
71.6%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 7 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
72.1%
DJ Turner run for 4 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
72.4%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
72.4%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+54
81.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 54 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
79.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
80.2%
Seth Green run for 4 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
80.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 50 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for 2 yds to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.9%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Anthony McFarlandSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
82.8%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
82.3%
Kasim Hill run for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 0:4018% → 27%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
82.5%
Bryce Williams run for no gain to the Minn 29 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
81.8%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Davis, RaVon) 13 yards to the UMD43, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
80.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+29
82.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 29 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.0%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
73.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.3%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 5 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
77.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4225% → 16%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
74.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+36
83.7%
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted for a TD Tre Watson return for 36 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG
16 plays · 37 yds · 5:4517% → 17%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
83.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
83.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
83.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+5
83.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive offside (Byron Cowart) to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
82.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
82.5%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Ko KieftSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
82.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
82.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
82.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
81.3%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
81.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
82.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
82.9%
Emmit Carpenter 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5786% → 96%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.3%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
86.3%
Anthony McFarland run for 4 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
86.0%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
95.5%
Anthony McFarland run for 64 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
15 plays · 58 yds · 6:215% → 2%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
95.2%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Tre Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+5
95.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+17
95.5%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
95.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.1%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
95.1%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, C, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Ellis, Tino) 15 yards to the UMD28, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
94.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 14 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
94.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
94.5%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for no gain to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+2
94.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 8
-7
97.7%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Byron Cowart for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 15 Zack Annexstad fumbled, recovered by Mary Bryce Brand , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1798% → 99%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
98.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
98.2%
DJ Turner run for 1 yd to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Wade Lees punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21INT
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
98.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 29 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by RaVon DavisSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
98.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+14
98.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
98.1%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 14 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
98.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
98.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+2
98.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 5
OPP 9
0
98.3%
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted, touchback. RaVon Davis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 7:5299% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+13
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 13 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
99.5%
Kasim Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+3
99.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+23
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Carter Coughlin) to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.5%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
99.5%
Anthony McFarland run for 3 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
99.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 7 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
100.0%
Chigoziem Okonkwo run for 21 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+17
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 17 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:27
Anthony McFarland run for 64 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 4:43
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 54 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+9
TD · Q3 14:14
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted for a TD Tre Watson return for 36 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com