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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:02 · Wade Lees punt for 47 yds, downed at the Temp 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:33: Todd Centeio pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 36 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:38: Freddie Booth-Lloyd run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +4.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:23: Anthony Russo pass intercepted for a TD Darnell Savage Jr. return for 23 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8 (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +6.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:23: MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8 — MD win probability +14.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:46: Rob Ritrovato run for 1 yd to the Temp 30 — TEM win probability +16.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 15:00MD 4th & 13 at MD 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q1 13:38TEM 4th & 3 at MD 44, tiedClose callPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it14.9%52% to convertField goal14.8%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call14.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:17MD 4th & 18 at MD 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.5%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%average punt
- Q1 10:02TEM 4th & 21 at TEM 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q1 8:33MD 4th & 6 at TEM 44, tiedClose callPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.6%40% to convertField goal83.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call83.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:33TEM 4th & 8 at MD 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.0%34% to convertField goal19.0%−0.142% to makePunt18.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:28MD 4th & 6 at MD 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.7%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q2 14:08TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q2 14:00MD 4th & 6 at MD 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q2 6:38TEM 4th & 1 at MD 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.4%59% to convertField goal30.3%−2.094% to makePunt25.3%−7.0average punt
- Q2 6:31MD 4th & 2 at TEM 48, down 14Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%−0.8average punt
- Q3 12:02MD 4th & 13 at MD 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it69.4%−2.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.1%average punt
- Q3 9:37TEM 4th & 13 at MD 29, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 29.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.7%−2.020% to convertField goal29.7%58% to makePunt23.1%−6.6average punt
- Q3 5:06MD 4th & 10 at MD 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.3%−2.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 6 at MD 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.5%40% to convertField goal38.3%−0.254% to makePunt35.7%−2.8average punt
- Q4 14:54MD 4th & 12 at TEM 26, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 2.8 ptsWent for it · 65.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.3%−2.823% to convertField goal66.1%64% to makePunt56.2%−9.9average punt
- Q4 8:21TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 45, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 42.7% before the snapGo for it44.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%−3.2average punt
- Q4 5:27TEM 4th & 7 at MD 46, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it44.8%37% to convertField goal38.9%−5.823% to makePuntTheir call43.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 4:04MD 4th & 16 at MD 49, tiedNumbers favored punt by 7.0 ptsWent for it · 57.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.4%−7.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt58.4%average punt
- Q4 0:36TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it43.9%−1.657% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:33TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.2%97% to makeGo for two21.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:38TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.8%97% to makeGo for two37.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:23MD Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.8%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
88.2%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Benny WallsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
87.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Michael Dogbe and Jimmy Hogan for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 13Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 13
OWN 17
-5
87.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+2
87.3%
Wade Lees punt for 54 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 2 yds to the Temp 14 TEMPLE Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
MDDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-9
86.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Zach Mesday for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+7
86.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 7 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
86.3%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Delvon Randall at the Temp 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD10 plays · 95 yds · 3:0615% → 19%
Q1 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+6
85.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 6 yds to the Temp 12Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
85.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 6 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+44
85.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 44 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+36
81.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 36 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
81.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Shaun Bradley for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 13
OWN 21
-5
81.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Michael Dogbe for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 16 Kasim Hill fumbled, recovered by Mary Brendan Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+12
81.1%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 12 yds to the Mary 28 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1821% → 21%
MDDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 76 yds · 5:0023% → 35%
MDDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0064% → 66%
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
63.9%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Jyquis ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+27
63.7%
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 27 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
66.1%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Chigoziem Okonkwo, broken up by Delvon RandallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12INT TD2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3638% → 32%
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+23
68.0%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted for a TD Darnell Savage Jr. return for 23 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8 (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD14 plays · 65 yds · 3:1624% → 31%
MDDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5026% → 30%
MDDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 12:02
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
74.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Karamo Dioubate for 0 yards to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
70.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+15
70.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (RaVon Davis) to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 13
OPP 29
0
72.3%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Marcus LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
72.7%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Jahrvis Davenport, broken up by Linwood CrumpSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
72.1%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for no gain to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
70.2%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 42 yds · 4:0333% → 37%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
67.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Chris Myarick for 23 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
64.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+2
63.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
74.9%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darryl Jones for 6 yds to the Temp 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
71.0%
Kasim Hill sacked by Michael Dogbe for 0 yards to the Temp 26 Kasim Hill fumbled, recovered by Mary Ellis McKennie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
68.9%
Kasim Hill pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT TD6 plays · 19 yds · 3:3338% → 42%
Q4 8:21
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+27
58.5%
Connor Bowler punt blocked by Jesse Aniebonam blocked by Jesse Aniebonam Jesse Aniebonam return for 27 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4644% → 46%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
56.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 8 yds to the Temp 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24INT TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:1060% → 65%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
60.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to DJ Turner for 4 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, roughing passer (Quincy Roche) to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+78
65.4%
Kasim Hill pass intercepted for a TD Shaun Bradley return for 78 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25INT8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0060% → 67%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
63.0%
Anthony McFarland run for no gain to the Temp 40 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-6
65.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by William Kwenkeu for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+19
57.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 19 yds to the MARYLAND 32 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass intercepted Linwood Crump return for no gain to the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1050% → 48%
Q4 0:36
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
52.2%
Connor Bowler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Taivon Jacobs at the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-61.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:46
Rob Ritrovato run for 1 yd to the Temp 30
-16.8
TD · Q2 3:23
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Temp 8
+14.2