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NU

Northwestern 14 at Iowa 10

IOWA
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5IOWA 73.3%Miguel Recinos 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q2 0:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:56 · Miguel Recinos 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+15.7Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:19: Isaiah Bowser run for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK) — NU win probability +15.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:27: Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 28 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +16.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:27: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK) — NU win probability +36.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:26: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line — NU win probability +21.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34: Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Iowa 36 — NU win probability +24.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 3 at NU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25NU 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:07IOWA 4th & 5 at NU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:53NU 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:41IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23IOWA 4th & 11 at NU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:58NU 4th & 9 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:29IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:46NU 4th & 12 at NU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56IOWA 4th & 6 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:50IOWA 4th & 6 at NU 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.0
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:03IOWA 4th & 11 at NU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 1 at IOWA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−3.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:26NU 4th & 14 at IOWA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−4.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−10.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:26IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:27IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:53NU 4th & 6 at NU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−2.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:37NU 4th & 8 at IOWA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:35NU 4th & 2 at IOWA 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 9:19NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:27IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:27NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+4
79.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
79.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
79.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
78.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
78.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.7%
[SG], Thorson, C. pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY NU illegal shift 5 yards to the NU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
78.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 11 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
78.6%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
78.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 8 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
78.5%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
50
0
78.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 8
50
0
78.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Chad HanaokaSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 8
50
0
78.7%
Jake Collins punt for 42 yds, downed at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
77.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-4
77.8%
Nate Stanley sacked by Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 6Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+20
77.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 20 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
77.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 12 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
78.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
78.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
78.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
78.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 9 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
78.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. Hockenson, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
78.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
78.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-MartinSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+4
78.0%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
76.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+12
75.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 12 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
75.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 9
50
+2
75.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
75.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Chad HanaokaSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
76.1%
Jake Collins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
75.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
75.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for no gain to the Iowa 15Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+15
75.1%
[SG], Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Fant,Noah, PENALTY NU pass interference (Hartage, Montre) 15 yards to the IOWA30, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
75.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 8 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
75.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+3
75.3%
Colten Rastetter punt for 22 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
0
72.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Matt NelsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
50
0
73.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Michael OjemudiaSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
50
+1
74.0%
Jake Collins punt for 43 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:5575% → 73%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
74.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 8 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
74.7%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+1
74.1%
Austin Kelly run for 1 yd to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+37
74.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 37 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
76.1%
Kelly-Martin,I. rush left for no gain to the NU45 (Fisher, Paddy), PENALTY IOWA holding (Jackson,Alaric) 10 yards to the IOWA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
75.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+1
74.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 1 yd to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+8
73.4%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 8 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
73.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 38 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
72.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 15 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-6
71.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Amani Hooker for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+5
72.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
73.1%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
72.6%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
72.4%
Toren Young run for 11 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
73.9%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
74.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-10
72.7%
[SG], Stanley,Nate rush left for 6 yards to the NU49 (Miller, Samdup), PENALTY IOWA holding (Reynolds,Ross) 10 yards to the IOWA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+8
71.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 8 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
71.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
68.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
68.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-7
69.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
70.5%
Jake Collins punt for 37 yds, downed at the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5173% → 73%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
72.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+13
73.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
73.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
73.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
72.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
73.3%
Miguel Recinos 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:1428% → 27%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
72.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-3
72.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 14
OWN 9
-3
73.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
71.9%
Riley Lees run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
72.2%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Geno Stone return for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.2%
Nate Stanley run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
76.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-4
75.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
74.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2428% → 47%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
72.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 7 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
71.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
70.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 10 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
69.1%
[SG], Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Skowronek, B., PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Hankins,Matt) 15 yards to the IOWA38, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
52.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:1661% → 57%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.4%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+36
60.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 36 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
64.7%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
64.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
62.3%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
56.9%
Miguel Recinos 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
53.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
53.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
53.0%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Jake Gervase return for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:3659% → 76%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
59.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 14 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
75.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 28 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19MISSED FG
21 plays · 55 yds · 7:0129% → 28%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
69.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
69.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
68.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
66.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
67.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
50
0
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
50
+3
67.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
67.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
67.2%
Chad Hanaoka run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
67.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
63.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Amani HookerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
64.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 12 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
63.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
63.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 2 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-10
65.6%
[SG], Thorson, C. pass complete to Skowronek, B. for 8 yards to the IOWA2 (Hooker,Amani), PENALTY NU holding (Hance, Blake) 10 yards to the IOWA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 20
0
68.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
72.4%
Jake Collins 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0074% → 71%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
73.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
71.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 6 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+14
71.3%
Colten Rastetter punt for 35 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 14 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5935% → 69%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
67.8%
Chad Hanaoka run for 13 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
30.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 40%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi Sargent, broken up by Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
43.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
41.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+8
39.7%
Colten Rastetter punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30 , Riley Lees returns for 8 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
35.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
32.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
33.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Blake Hance) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
35.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Chad Hanaoka for no gain to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
38.3%
Jake Collins punt for 41 yds, downed at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0038% → 44%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
39.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 10 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
40.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 10 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
43.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 Mekhi Sargent fumbled, forced by Cameron Ruiz, recovered by Nwest Travis WhillockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4978% → 77%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
21.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
50
-2
21.3%
Riley Lees run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+8
20.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-5
21.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 8
OPP 49
-2
22.6%
Jake Collins punt for 37 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
30.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for no gain to the Iowa 10Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
29.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 14 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
30.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 4 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+8
31.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 8 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
32.2%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42 Ivory Kelly-Martin fumbled, forced by Joe Gaziano, recovered by Nwest Cameron RuizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:5992% → 94%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
7.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
7.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
7.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+4
5.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:27
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Collins KICK)
-36.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Iowa 36
-24.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:26
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com