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IOWA

Iowa 24 at Penn State 30

PSU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDSAFETYTDFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:20 · Colten Rastetter punt for 34 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for no gain to the PnSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+5.8Home team on offense+5.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.6Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:45: Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +16.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:03: Jake Pinegar 45 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:10: Trace McSorley run for 51 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:00: Trace McSorley pass intercepted for a TD Geno Stone return for 24 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +15.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:24: Jake Pinegar 44 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 14:08PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09IOWA 4th & 9 at PSU 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18PSU 4th & 25 at PSU 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:22IOWA 4th & 10 at PSU 10, up 5
    Close callWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:53PSU 4th & 3 at IOWA 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:33IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30IOWA 4th & 18 at IOWA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:44PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:32IOWA 4th & 6 at PSU 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:49PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:37IOWA 4th & 10 at PSU 42, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%
    30% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:24IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:20IOWA 4th & 5 at PSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:00PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:55IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:10PSU 4th & 13 at IOWA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:22IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:48IOWA 4th & 6 at PSU 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:24PSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 26, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−14.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:22IOWA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:27PSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:45PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:10PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:00IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1SF
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4265% → 64%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.5%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
64.3%
Blake Gillikin punt blocked by Dominique Dafney for a SAFETY recovered by Dominique Dafney for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:4636% → 37%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
64.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 39 IOWA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nate Stanley) to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+32
64.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 32 yds T.J. Hockenson fumbled, forced by Koa Farmer, recovered by Iowa Nate Wieting for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
64.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
63.8%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+10
63.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
63.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
63.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the PnSt 4Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 10:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
63.6%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
63.3%
Miguel Recinos 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5163% → 62%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
63.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-12 Yards) to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
63.2%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
63.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-7
62.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Parker Hesse and Anthony Nelson for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 10Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
62.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:5238% → 42%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-MartinSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
62.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Windsor) to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
62.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33 Ivory Kelly-Martin fumbled, recovered by Iowa Tristan WirfsSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+9
61.5%
Toren Young run for 9 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
61.1%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+11
60.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 11 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
61.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
57.7%
Colten Rastetter pass complete to Sam Brincks for 10 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:3859% → 63%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
59.2%
Miles Sanders run for 16 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
59.4%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
59.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
58.1%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
58.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 15 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.1%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
57.3%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
56.3%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+15
56.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
63.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 18 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4540% → 39%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
60.7%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
61.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-2
61.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds , KJ Hamler returns for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7SF
4 plays · -27 yds · 0:5460% → 56%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
60.0%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
59.7%
Trace McSorley sacked by Anthony Nelson and Chauncey Golston for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 12
OWN 25
-25
56.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 6 yds · 2:3845% → 45%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
55.2%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
55.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
54.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
54.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shareef Miller) to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
53.8%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Alaric Jackson) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-5
54.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+2
54.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
55.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2556% → 52%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
55.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-4
55.3%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+10
54.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
55.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
54.5%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
53.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+1
52.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3149% → 49%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
51.0%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+44
50.9%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted John Reid return for 44 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4842% → 43%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
58.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 11 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
57.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
57.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
57.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
56.6%
Miguel Recinos 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2659% → 58%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
60.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
57.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 33 yds, downed at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 23 yds · 2:5343% → 47%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
56.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
56.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
56.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 6 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
53.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (PJ Mustipher) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+6
52.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
51.0%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Alaric Jackson) to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+11
51.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 11 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-3
49.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-3
50.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nate StanleySimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
53.5%
Peyton Mansell run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:2858% → 66%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 9 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
59.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
59.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
65.7%
Jake Pinegar 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
58.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3242% → 41%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
58.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 23 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
55.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
57.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
58.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
59.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 33 yds, downed at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5662% → 75%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
62.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 8 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+51
74.9%
Trace McSorley run for 51 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3927% → 27%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
72.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 10 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
72.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 12 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
70.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
70.1%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
70.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
72.9%
Colten Rastetter punt for 34 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0376% → 75%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
75.7%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-1
75.9%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
76.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
75.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 54 yds, downed at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5927% → 24%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
73.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 3 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-8
74.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+6
76.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3180% → 81%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
80.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
80.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 13 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
80.7%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-3
79.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
81.0%
Jake Pinegar 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4319% → 17%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Toren Young run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
80.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
80.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+6
82.9%
Colten Rastetter punt for 41 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24Uncategorized
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2684% → 87%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.0%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
84.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+39
83.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 39 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
86.6%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+7
86.1%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
86.2%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
86.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
86.1%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
86.7%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 10 Miles Sanders fumbled, recovered by Iowa Jack HockadaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4215% → 15%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
85.3%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+20
85.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 20 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
85.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 22 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
83.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
82.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Kyle GroenewegSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Colten Rastetter punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3886% → 71%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
86.3%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+24
70.7%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted for a TD Geno Stone return for 24 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0777% → 85%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
76.8%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
76.9%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
75.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
84.5%
Jake Pinegar 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28INT
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:5624% → 29%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Toren Young run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
76.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
75.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
73.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 7 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
73.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 20 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
70.4%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Tristan Wirfs) to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+5
75.0%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
71.4%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
74.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 15 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
70.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Kyle GroenewegSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
71.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+14
74.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+7
71.1%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Nick Scott return for 7 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:5291% → 95%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
90.7%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+14
92.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.9%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.4%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
95.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 5 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 30Uncategorized
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:0410% → 11%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
90.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
90.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
90.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 11 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
89.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.3%
Nate Stanley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
88.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:45
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q4 10:00
Trace McSorley pass intercepted for a TD Geno Stone return for 24 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q3 12:10
Trace McSorley run for 51 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com