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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 4:07: Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 41 — IOWA win probability +5.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:13: Timeout IOWA, clock 00:13 — MD win probability +3.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +7.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:35: Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42 — IOWA win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 3:31: Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 2 yards Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by Iowa Anthony Nelson for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:07MD 4th & 3 at MD 45, tiedClose callPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it26.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:55IOWA 4th & 2 at MD 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.5%57% to convertField goal72.1%−0.447% to makePunt71.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 0:03IOWA 4th & 4 at MD 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snapGo for it71.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call71.7%−0.192% to makePunt69.7%−2.1average punt
- Q2 14:03MD 4th & 17 at MD 18, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.8%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.9%average punt
- Q2 10:18IOWA 4th & 3 at MD 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.7%51% to convertField goal71.4%−0.480% to makePunt68.2%−3.6average punt
- Q2 9:03IOWA 4th & 7 at MD 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call71.4%91% to makePunt67.8%−3.7average punt
- Q3 12:48MD 4th & 18 at MD 17, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it13.5%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%average punt
- Q3 7:37IOWA 4th & 10 at MD 18, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snapGo for it86.2%−1.327% to convertField goalTheir call87.4%79% to makePunt81.2%−6.2average punt
- Q3 5:51MD 4th & 9 at MD 26, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q3 4:18IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 40, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.8%average punt
- Q3 0:00MD 4th & 21 at MD 35, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 11:14IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 46, up 23Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:47MD 4th & 10 at MD 33, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 3:13IOWA 4th & 6 at MD 33, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%40% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.149% to makePunt99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:11IOWA 4th & 3 at MD 16, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%51% to convertField goal99.5%−<0.181% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 0:08IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1INT9 plays · 46 yds · 4:3174% → 74%
MDDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0327% → 27%
IOWADrive 3FG18 plays · 72 yds · 9:0173% → 72%
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
72.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 15 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+12
72.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 12 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
72.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:0028% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5FG11 plays · 40 yds · 4:5373% → 75%
MDDrive 6INT9 plays · 28 yds · 4:0827% → 28%
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
72.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Avery Edwards for 5 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+11
71.8%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 11 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+13
71.7%
Kasim Hill pass intercepted Amani Hooker return for 13 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD14 plays · 58 yds · 3:5977% → 85%
Q2 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+16
76.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 16 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
77.8%
Stanley, Nate pass incomplete, PENALTY MARYLAND personal foul 11 yards to the MARYLAND11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
84.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 2:0716% → 14%
IOWADrive 10FG10 plays · 27 yds · 4:5788% → 92%
MDDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3510% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1794% → 93%
Q3 4:44
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-2
93.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-5
93.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 45 yds , Taivon Jacobs returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 10 Taivon Jacobs fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13FUMBLE TD2 plays · -2 yds · 0:088% → 3%
MDDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 9 yds · 3:253% → 2%
Q3 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+17
98.1%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 17 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-7
98.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Wade Lees punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q4 8:47
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
99.0%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amani Hooker at the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17DOWNS15 plays · 58 yds · 7:2499% → 100%
Q4 6:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
99.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18END OF GAME3 plays · 25 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
99.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+7.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:07
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 41
+5.5
FUMBLE · Q3 3:31
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 2 yards Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by Iowa Anthony Nelson for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+5.2