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IOWA

Iowa 48 at Minnesota 31

MINN
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Colten Rastetter punt for 45 yds, downed at the Minn 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−3.3Pregame prior−15.5Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:35: Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 21 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +11.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:53: Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +8.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:36: Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +15.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:03: Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:35: Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +7.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:29IOWA 4th & 2 at MINN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:44MINN 4th & 24 at MINN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57IOWA 4th & 4 at MINN 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00MINN 4th & 10 at IOWA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:01MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.8%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41IOWA 4th & 3 at MINN 22, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:41MINN 4th & 5 at IOWA 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:33MINN 4th & 4 at IOWA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:32IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:20IOWA 4th & 2 at MINN 2, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:49IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:48IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:58MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:57IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:35IOWA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:53MINN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:36MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:03IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:35MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:27IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
30.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
30.1%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
30.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
30.1%
Jacob Herbers punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:4069% → 70%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
30.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 13 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
30.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+8
30.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 8 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
30.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+9
30.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-Martin, broken up by Terell SmithSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
30.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+15
30.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 15 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
30.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 3 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
30.5%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
30.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, downed at the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:2470% → 73%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
30.2%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
30.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+60
27.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 60 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5028% → 33%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
28.2%
IOWA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
28.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 13 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
28.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
29.0%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
29.0%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+34
29.0%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 34 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
29.3%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
29.3%
Seth Green run for 1 yd to the Iowa 3Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.5%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 3 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5870% → 69%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
30.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
30.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
30.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-MartinSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
31.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 45 yds, downed at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
31.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 16 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
31.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
32.2%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 21
OWN 33
-3
31.1%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 24
OWN 30
0
30.6%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 24
OWN 30
0
30.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:0669% → 78%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
31.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 9 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
30.5%
Brady Ross run for 5 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
29.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
29.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
29.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
29.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 12 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
29.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
29.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+12
29.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
29.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Minn 4Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.7%
T.J. Hockenson run for 4 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:5722% → 25%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.0%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Bateman, Rashod, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Moss,Riley) 15 yards to the MINN40, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
23.0%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 11 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
23.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
23.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
23.8%
Zack Annexstad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
23.4%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by Julius BrentsSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
25.3%
Emmit Carpenter 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah Fant, broken up by Kamal MartinSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-MartinSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
25.7%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
25.9%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Amani HookerSimilar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
25.2%
Jacob Herbers pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:2776% → 88%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
23.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 5 yds to the Iowa 44 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (Brandon Smith) to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+8
24.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+25
24.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 25 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
12.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 21 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:0817% → 19%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.5%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+52
16.2%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 52 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.3%
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted, touchback. Riley Moss return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
13.2%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Jacob Huff return for 21 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0919% → 28%
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
27.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2876% → 77%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
23.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
23.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
22.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for no gain to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1975% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
24.1%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
23.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
23.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+26
23.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 26 yds to the MINNESOTA 29 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
23.2%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
23.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 4 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
23.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
17.8%
Miguel Recinos 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.1%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
18.8%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 8 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
20.0%
Seth Green run for 8 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
20.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+4
19.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 11
50
+6
20.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 6 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
20.3%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by Julius BrentsSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
20.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
15.5%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+7
15.6%
Nate Stanley sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 3 Nate Stanley fumbled, recovered by Minn Thomas Barber , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3619% → 35%
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
19.4%
Seth Green run for 2 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.8%
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:3375% → 89%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
24.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 15 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
24.6%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
24.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+16
25.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 16 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
24.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 8 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
24.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
24.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
24.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Minn 5Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:3014% → 14%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.4%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 13 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
15.6%
Seth Green run for 7 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
16.1%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive offside (A.J. Epenesa) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
50
+16
16.2%
Seth Green pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 16 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
17.0%
Seth Green run for 6 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
17.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-1
16.8%
Seth Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
13.7%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Amani HookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2989% → 89%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
10.6%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 6 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
10.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete, broken up by Terell SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
10.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. HockensonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+6
10.8%
Colten Rastetter punt for 47 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 6 yds to the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Seth Green pass intercepted Julius Brents return for no gain to the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
8.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
8.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
9.4%
Colten Rastetter punt for 43 yds, downed at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26INT
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
11.2%
Zack Annexstad sacked by Amani Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+36
11.0%
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted Riley Moss return for 36 yds to the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:3993% → 95%
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
6.6%
Noah Fant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 11
OPP 0
0
6.6%
PENALTY IOWA clipping off-setting, PENALTY MINN personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
6.7%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
6.9%
Toren Young run for 7 yds to the Minn 2Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
4.8%
Miguel Recinos 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:455% → 14%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
5.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
5.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
5.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
5.9%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
6.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
6.6%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
6.6%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 7 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+8
6.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
14.3%
Zack Annexstad pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0892% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
8.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
8.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
9.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
8.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+5
7.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+30
7.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 30 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
6.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 2Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 30INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:382% → 1%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
1.9%
Bryce Williams run for 13 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
2.0%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Bateman, Rashod, PENALTY IOWA holding (Brents,Julius) 10 yards to the IOWA39, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.0%
Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
2.0%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 6
OWN 0
0
0.8%
Annexstad, Zack pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, C, PENALTY MINN illegal use of hands off-setting, PENALTY IOWA personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
1.0%
Zack Annexstad pass intercepted Geno Stone return for no gain to the Iowa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
1.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:36
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 4:03
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 1:35
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 21 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com