Try the model
ISU

Iowa State 3 at Iowa 13

IOWA
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:39 · Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IOWA 15 IOWA Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+24.6Garbage-time factor+15.4Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:18: Miguel Recinos 31 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +3.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:18: [SG], Montgomery, Da. rush left for loss of 2 yards to the ISU23 (Hooker,Amani), PENALTY ISU holding (Good-Jones, J.) 10 yards to the ISU15, NO PLAY. — ISU win probability +3.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:06: Sargent,Mekhi rush left for no gain to the ISU25 (Eisworth, Greg), PENALTY IOWA illegal block (Reynolds,Ross) 15 yards to the ISU40, NO PLAY. — IOWA win probability +5.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58: Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46 — IOWA win probability +6.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:47: Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +18.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42ISU 4th & 6 at IOWA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22ISU 4th & 18 at ISU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:03IOWA 4th & 9 at ISU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:07IOWA 4th & 7 at ISU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 15, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:18IOWA 4th & 5 at ISU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:34ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:27IOWA 4th & 4 at ISU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:46ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:34IOWA 4th & 15 at ISU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:34ISU 4th & 1 at IOWA 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−5.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:56IOWA 4th & 9 at ISU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:56ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:47ISU 4th & 25 at ISU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:39IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 4:47IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.6%
IOWA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
61.6%
Toren Young run for 7 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
61.6%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
61.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete, broken up by Mike RoseSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
61.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:4938% → 40%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
61.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+31
61.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 31 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
61.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 8 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
61.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 12Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
61.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 10 yds to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Dylan Soehner for no gain to the Iowa 2Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.4%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Iowa 1Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.4%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
60.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Josh Mueller) to the Iowa 6Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
60.0%
Connor Assalley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.0%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
60.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.8%
Nate Stanley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
60.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
60.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-3
59.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
59.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 51 yds, downed at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
59.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
59.9%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to David MontgomerySimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-9
60.3%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Nick Niemann for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 7Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 18
OWN 7
0
60.8%
Corey Dunn punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0561% → 59%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
60.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
60.8%
Nate Stanley run for 1 yd to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
60.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
59.0%
Miguel Recinos 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0341% → 41%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.8%
David Montgomery run for 11 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Kyle Kempt run for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
58.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
58.8%
Corey Dunn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amani Hooker at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
58.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
58.0%
Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Smith-Marsette, QB hurry by Leo, Matt, PENALTY ISU holding (Eisworth, Greg) 10 yards to the IOWA40, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
59.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
58.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 8 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
59.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brady Ross for 4 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
59.9%
Toren Young run for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
60.0%
Toren Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
59.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+4
59.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 4 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
58.6%
Nate Stanley punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
56.9%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
57.1%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+7
57.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 7 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
58.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1659% → 61%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
58.7%
Toren Young run for 6 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
58.7%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
58.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 6 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
58.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. Hockenson, broken up by Marcel Spears Jr.Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-1
57.6%
Toren Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 13Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
61.4%
Miguel Recinos 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 3:4443% → 41%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
57.2%
[SG], Montgomery, Da. rush left for loss of 2 yards to the ISU23 (Hooker,Amani), PENALTY ISU holding (Good-Jones, J.) 10 yards to the ISU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
57.6%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+15
57.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Tarique Milton for 15 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
57.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Tarique Milton for 12 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
55.5%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-9
55.1%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Matt Nelson for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
59.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
59.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5560% → 60%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
59.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 8Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
59.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+5
60.1%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.0%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
57.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 2 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 35 yds, downed at the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
60.8%
Toren Young run for 11 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
62.9%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
62.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 2 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+3
61.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Max Cooper for 3 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
60.9%
Colten Rastetter punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
57.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 4 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
56.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 14Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
58.2%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Deshaunte Jones, broken up by Jack Hockaday IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+1
59.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 57 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3260% → 64%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+45
59.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 45 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
64.5%
Sargent,Mekhi rush left for no gain to the ISU25 (Eisworth, Greg), PENALTY IOWA illegal block (Reynolds,Ross) 15 yards to the ISU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+5
62.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+5
62.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Kyle Groeneweg for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
60.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Kyle Groeneweg, broken up by Brian PeavySimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+48
64.2%
Miguel Recinos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:0036% → 38%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.9%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
64.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
62.8%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.0%
[SG], PENALTY IOWA offside defense (Epenesa,A.J.) 5 yards to the ISU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+4
60.9%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
60.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Tarique Milton for 4 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
60.3%
Kyle Kempt sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+11
63.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Landen Akers for 11 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
60.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Chase Allen for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
62.1%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Parker HesseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0269% → 70%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
68.6%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
68.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+8
67.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 8 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
69.9%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
69.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 11 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
71.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
71.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick Easley, broken up by D'Andre PayneSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
69.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
69.8%
Miguel Recinos 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
66.1%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
65.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+7
67.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Chase Allen for 7 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
64.4%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Foster) to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 18
OWN 34
+7
67.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Matthew Eaton for 7 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
65.5%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Chase Allen for 6 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
63.3%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
66.6%
Corey Dunn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 6:3071% → 93%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
70.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
69.9%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 18Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+9
68.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 9 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
70.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 11 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
72.2%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-10
73.4%
Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Groeneweg,Kyle, PENALTY IOWA holding (Ross,Brady) 10 yards to the IOWA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+15
70.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 15 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
72.6%
Brady Ross run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
74.1%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
74.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 7 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
74.4%
Toren Young run for no gain to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
74.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+30
73.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 30 yds to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 7%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.4%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Sheldon Croney Jr., broken up by A.J. EpenesaSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
90.7%
[SG], Noland, Zeb pass complete to Akers, Landen for 10 yards to the IOWA49 (Ojemudia,M.), PENALTY ISU holding (Foster, Sean) 10 yards to the ISU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 20
OWN 31
0
92.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem Butler, broken up by Michael OjemudiaSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 20
OWN 31
-5
92.6%
[SG], PENALTY ISU false start (Meeker, Bryce) 5 yards to the ISU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 25
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 25
OWN 26
+28
92.9%
Corey Dunn punt for 43 yds IOWA ST Penalty, kick catching interference (D'Andre Payne) to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5494% → 95%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
93.5%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Toren Young run for no gain to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+1
95.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+32
95.2%
Colten Rastetter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IOWA 15 IOWA Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
96.5%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 23 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.0%
Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
96.1%
Zeb Noland sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 33 Zeb Noland fumbled, recovered by Iowa Chauncey Golston , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
96.6%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
96.6%
Brady Ross run for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+3
97.0%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:47
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+18.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46
+6.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:06
Sargent,Mekhi rush left for no gain to the ISU25 (Eisworth, Greg), PENALTY IOWA illegal block (Reynolds,Ross) 15 yards to the ISU40, NO PLAY.
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com