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NIU

Northern Illinois 7 at Iowa 33

IOWA
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of GameTD+9.6IOWA 83.6%Nate Stanley pass complete to NoahFant for 1 yd for a TD (Miguel RecinosKICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q3 7:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:20 · Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 1 yd for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+12.4Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:02: Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 29 — IOWA win probability +3.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:20: Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 1 yd for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:41: Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:02: Toren Young run for 6 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 7:36: Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — IOWA win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58NIU 4th & 3 at IOWA 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:58IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:30NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:38NIU 4th & 2 at IOWA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20IOWA 4th & 10 at NIU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:20NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16IOWA 4th & 1 at NIU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:51IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:26NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:20IOWA 4th & 1 at NIU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:20NIU 4th & 29 at NIU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:27NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:15IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q3 7:20IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:41IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:02IOWA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:52IOWA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.7%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Colten Rastetter punt blocked by Jauan Wesley blocked by Jauan WesleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0424% → 24%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
76.4%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
76.4%
D.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Childers for 5 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
76.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Leon Payne, broken up by Jake GervaseSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
76.1%
Andrew Gantz 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
76.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
76.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
76.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
75.9%
Tre Harbison run for 19 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.7%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
75.8%
[SG], CHILDERS, Marcu rush up middle for 2 yards to the NIU43 (Nelson,Matt), PENALTY NIU holding (VELOZ, Nathan) 10 yards to the NIU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+1
75.9%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+4
76.0%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
76.1%
Matt Ference punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
75.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
75.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
75.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
75.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 6 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
75.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
75.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
75.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
75.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 13 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
76.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
75.9%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Albert Smalls return for no gain to the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
74.1%
Jordan Nettles run for 7 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+15
74.0%
Jordan Nettles run for 15 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
73.8%
D.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
73.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 10 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
73.4%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
73.3%
Tre Harbison run for 10 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
73.1%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
73.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Leon Payne for 1 yd to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
73.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 1 yd to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-6
73.6%
D.J. Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1974% → 74%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
74.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 6 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
74.4%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 10 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
74.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 24 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
74.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Noah Fant IOWA Penalty, illegal touching (Noah Fant) to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
74.6%
Kelly-Martin,I. rush left for 11 yards to the NIU4, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, Mykel), PENALTY IOWA holding (Fant,Noah) 10 yards to the NIU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+5
74.0%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+5
73.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
74.3%
Miguel Recinos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.1%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
73.3%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
73.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
72.7%
Marcus Childers sacked by Anthony Nelson for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+5
73.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 5 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-3
74.0%
Marcus Childers sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+4
74.7%
Matt Ference punt for 50 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
73.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+21
73.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 21 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
74.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
74.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
50
0
75.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
50
-6
74.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the IOWA 46 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (T.J. Hockenson) to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+9
73.9%
Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Smith,Brandon, PENALTY NIU pass interference (EMBRY, Jalen) 9 yards to the NIU47, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
75.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 49 Nate Stanley fumbled, recovered by Iowa T.J. Hockenson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+7
73.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
74.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-1
74.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
71.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 10 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
70.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+21
70.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 21 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
69.6%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Amani Hooker return for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
71.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5072% → 71%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
72.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
72.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
71.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
70.8%
Colten Rastetter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2130% → 31%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
70.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
70.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 13 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
69.3%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
69.2%
Andrew Gantz 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
72.8%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.6%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
68.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
69.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+9
70.3%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 9 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
72.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
72.4%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
71.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick EasleySimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
70.6%
Colten Rastetter punt for 57 yds, downed at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. Brown, broken up by Matt NelsonSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.0%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
70.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Leon Payne, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+11
72.6%
Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 42 , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:1373% → 84%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-11
73.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 46 IOWA Penalty, illegal block (Ross Reynolds) to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 21
OWN 31
+17
71.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 17 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+40
73.9%
Toren Young run for 40 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
75.1%
Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Groeneweg,Kyle, PENALTY NIU holding (HUNT, Tifonte) 6 yards to the NIU6, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
75.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.1%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.0%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 1 yd for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
82.7%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-10
82.1%
Marcus Childers sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-15
84.1%
Marcus Childers sacked by Kristian Welch for a loss of 15 yards to the NoIll 9 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus Childers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 29
OWN 9
+12
84.8%
Matt Ference punt for 49 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 12 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:2186% → 95%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
85.7%
Nate Stanley run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+34
85.6%
Toren Young run for 24 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Mykelti Williams) to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
85.8%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.8%
Nate Stanley run for 5 yds to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.8%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
93.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 8 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Rodney Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
93.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-7
93.6%
Marcus Childers sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 26 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by Iowa Chauncey Golston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4595% → 99%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.2%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
95.2%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 9 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
95.4%
Brady Ross run for 4 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
95.5%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
95.5%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Toren Young run for 6 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Ty HarmstonSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
98.6%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 24 , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 6 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+2
99.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
99.2%
Toren Young run for 4 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
99.2%
Young,Toren rush up middle for 3 yards to the IOWA39 (LEROY, Ben), PENALTY IOWA holding (Hockenson,T.J.) 10 yards to the IOWA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+2
99.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+2
99.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Colten Rastetter punt for 69 yds, downed at the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:571% → 0%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.9%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 1
-1
99.8%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
99.8%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Nate Wieting for 30 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Peyton Mansell run for 1 yd for a TD Miguel Recinos kickoff for 3 yds for a touchback Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29 Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 33 Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down Jordan Nettles run for 12 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST down Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Iowa 48 Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the Iowa 44 Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST down Marcus Childers run for no gain to the Iowa 38 Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 12 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST down Jordan Nettles run for 5 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Amani Jones) to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST down (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:400% → 0%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 12 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 12 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.9%
Jordan Nettles run for 5 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Amani Jones) to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 10 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 8 (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27END OF GAME
12 plays · 23 yds · 0:19100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Henry Geil run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.9%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Cole Banwart) to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Henry Geil run for 4 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Mansell,Peyton pass incomplete to Ragaini,Nico, PENALTY NIU holding (FOSTER, Traysho) 10 yards to the IOWA36, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Henry Geil run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Max Cooper for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Henry Geil run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Henry Geil run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:20
Nate Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 1 yd for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 2:41
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds for a TD (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+8.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:02
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 29
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com