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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:10 · Logan Justus 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:46: Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 41 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MICH win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:33: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +7.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:44: Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:08: Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:10: Logan Justus 36 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +2.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:41MICH 4th & 11 at IU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%84% to makePunt94.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:20IU 4th & 3 at MICH 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%53% to convertField goal5.9%−0.136% to makePunt5.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:51MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 45, up 3Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:59MICH 4th & 2 at IU 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.4%57% to convertField goal90.9%−0.527% to makePunt91.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:15MICH 4th & 4 at IU 12, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.5%45% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%−<0.186% to makePunt89.1%−1.4average punt
- Q2 12:22IU 4th & 14 at IU 36, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q2 9:56MICH 4th & 8 at IU 13, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.3%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call89.4%85% to makePunt87.9%−1.5average punt
- Q2 7:39IU 4th & 6 at MICH 23, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call10.8%70% to makePunt8.8%−1.9average punt
- Q3 14:25IU 4th & 9 at IU 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it17.7%−1.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q3 5:15IU 4th & 23 at IU 43, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−3.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q3 2:08MICH 4th & 2 at IU 15, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snapGo for it83.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call82.6%−1.283% to makePunt74.0%−9.7average punt
- Q4 14:48IU 4th & 10 at MICH 47, down 8Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%average punt
- Q4 9:55MICH 4th & 3 at IU 5, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.5%45% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−1.192% to makePunt83.0%−8.5average punt
- Q4 6:10IU 4th & 5 at MICH 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call6.7%77% to makePunt4.2%−2.5average punt
- Q4 2:37MICH 4th & 2 at IU 11, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.1%56% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%−0.987% to makePunt90.4%−4.6average punt
- Q4 1:21IU 4th & 12 at IU 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%23% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:14IU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.7%97% to makeGo for two7.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:46MICH Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick89.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:33IU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.4%97% to makeGo for two17.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:44MICH Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMICHDrive 1FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:1497% → 96%
IUDrive 2INT11 plays · 36 yds · 3:104% → 5%
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
95.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 3
50
+4
95.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 4 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+6
95.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 6 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
95.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Michael Dwumfour return for no gain to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2495% → 95%
Q1 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
95.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Berkley Edwards for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD6 plays · 80 yds · 1:305% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:3594% → 93%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
93.3%
Peoples-Jones, Donovan pass incomplete to Gentry, Zach, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Brown Jr., Andre) 15 yards to the INDIANA18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:438% → 8%
Q2 13:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
91.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
91.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr. INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Knight) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+8
91.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 32 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG8 plays · 47 yds · 2:1492% → 92%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
91.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Grant Perry for 9 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
91.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 31 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8FG10 plays · 52 yds · 2:098% → 12%
Q2 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+30
91.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 30 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
90.5%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Hill, Lavert) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4289% → 93%
IUDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:029% → 19%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+41
89.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 41 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11END OF HALF9 plays · 59 yds · 1:2584% → 85%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Chris Evans for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+42
85.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Gentry for 42 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 1 yd to the Ind 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3017% → 16%
Q3 14:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
83.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD13 plays · 67 yds · 4:3284% → 90%
Q3 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+16
82.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
50
+13
84.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+14
84.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 14 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
84.1%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Gentry, Zach, PENALTY INDIANA personal foul (Brown Jr., Andre) 2 yards to the INDIANA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14FUMBLE7 plays · 32 yds · 0:5211% → 13%
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
88.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 14 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+20
88.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.8%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the Mich 43 Stevie Scott fumbled, forced by Kwity Paye, recovered by Mich Khaleke HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15INT2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3589% → 89%
IUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 5 yds · 2:4013% → 12%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
87.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
85.1%
Stevie Scott run for 19 yds to the Mich 29 INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Simon Stepaniak) to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-11
85.9%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Devin Bush and Rashan Gary for a loss of 11 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 21
OWN 45
+3
87.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 3 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 23
OWN 43
+5
88.1%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FG10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0287% → 93%
IUDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 31 yds · 2:119% → 9%
Q3 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
90.6%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Hill, Lavert) 10 yards to the INDIANA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG9 plays · 51 yds · 4:4193% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20FG12 plays · 56 yds · 3:346% → 10%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
93.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Metellus) to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+22
93.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 22 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21FG11 plays · 36 yds · 3:2395% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 13 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 15 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
97.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-6
97.4%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Rashan Gary for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:33
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q3 9:44
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+6.4
FG · Q3 2:08
Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD
+5.3