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PSU

Penn State 33 at Indiana 28

IU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+9.7IU 13.7%Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-ShunHarris II for 21 yds for a TD (LoganJustus KICK)AWAY 33 - HOME 28 · Q4 0:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:49 · Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 21 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 207Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense−20.3Garbage-time factor−13.7Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:08: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:01: Stevie Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +22.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:41: Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED) — PSU win probability +25.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:25: Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:49: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 21 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:47PSU 4th & 8 at IU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:02IU 4th & 2 at IU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:52IU 4th & 20 at IU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:09PSU 4th & 5 at IU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:28IU 4th & 2 at IU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00IU 4th & 8 at IU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27PSU 4th & 6 at IU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:50IU 4th & 1 at PSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−2.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:10PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:16PSU 4th & 8 at IU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−9.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:38IU 4th & 5 at PSU 48, down 5
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:03PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:18IU 4th & 13 at IU 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:18PSU 4th & 10 at IU 34, up 12
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:06PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 37, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:25IU 4th & 5 at IU 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:49IU 4th & 12 at PSU 21, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:00PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:18IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:06IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:08PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:01IU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:41PSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:25PSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:49IU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:4586% → 86%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
13.9%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+29
14.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 29 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
14.3%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.4%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.2%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2214% → 16%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.4%
J-Shun Harris II run for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
14.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 12 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
14.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 17 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
14.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
15.0%
Stevie Scott run for 8 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
15.1%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
15.3%
Whop Philyor run for 26 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.4%
Stevie Scott run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:1884% → 83%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
16.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 13 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
16.0%
Miles Sanders run for 14 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Nick BowersSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
16.2%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
16.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
16.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2817% → 18%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
16.8%
Stevie Scott run for 5 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 5
OWN 10
-6
17.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 4Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+13
17.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 13 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
17.7%
Stevie Scott run for 6 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
18.0%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+42
17.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 32 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5882% → 81%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
18.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
18.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-2
18.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:5319% → 19%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.9%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
19.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 11 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stevie ScottSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-10
19.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3280% → 80%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
19.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 13 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
19.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
19.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
19.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+5
20.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (5 Yards) to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-10
19.7%
Blake Gillikin run for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:4822% → 26%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
21.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
22.1%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
25.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:4875% → 74%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
24.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 13 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
24.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 15 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
24.0%
Miles Sanders run for 11 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
24.3%
Trace McSorley sacked by Thomas Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-9
24.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Dameon Willis Jr. and Marcelino Ball for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+1
26.3%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Bryant Fitzgerald return for 1 yd to the Ind 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2827% → 28%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
27.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
27.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-10
27.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+11
27.2%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 11 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
27.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 47 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:0772% → 78%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
28.2%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
27.9%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
28.5%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+44
28.6%
Trace McSorley run for 44 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
27.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for no gain to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
22.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0025% → 26%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
25.2%
Stevie Scott run for 18 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
26.8%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
27.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+16
25.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 45 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 16 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0175% → 77%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
24.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+8
25.3%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+59
25.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 59 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
22.5%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
22.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
23.3%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Ind 9Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
22.9%
Jake Pinegar 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1524% → 29%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
23.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
23.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Reese Taylor for 8 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
25.1%
Stevie Scott run for 7 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+13
26.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 13 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
27.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 25 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
28.8%
Stevie Scott run for 1 yd to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+7
28.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Austin Dorris for 7 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
28.2%
Stevie Scott run for 1 yd to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
28.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2074% → 74%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
25.8%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
25.6%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-4
25.5%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
26.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:5428% → 24%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
28.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+7
28.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
26.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
27.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-10
26.0%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+8
24.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 8 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3027% → 32%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.1%
Stevie Scott run for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
28.8%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
26.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 12 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
28.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 19 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
30.6%
Stevie Scott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
30.7%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
31.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 7 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+3
32.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23 Ronnie Walker Jr. fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:4473% → 78%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
27.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 22 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
25.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 11 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
25.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
25.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+9
25.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 9 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
24.5%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+6
24.3%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+2
25.1%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Ind 14 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+8
25.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 8 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
24.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 2 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
24.6%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the Ind 14Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
26.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
22.1%
Jake Pinegar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:0525% → 51%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
25.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the Ind 38 for a 1ST down. Garrett Taylor ejected.Similar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.0%
Stevie Scott run for no gain to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
27.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
28.9%
Stevie Scott run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
30.6%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+16
29.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 16 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
30.5%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+6
29.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 6 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.3%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.8%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4227% → 29%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.6%
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
26.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 9 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
27.6%
Stevie Scott run for 10 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
30.4%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
31.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 7
50
+2
29.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
28.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 43 yds, downed at the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:1575% → 74%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
24.9%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
25.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 2 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+7
26.1%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+10
24.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
24.0%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
24.2%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
25.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+7
26.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 45 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 7 yds to the Ind 32 J-Shun Harris II fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:2581% → 93%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
19.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 6 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+9
17.8%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
17.6%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+5
17.3%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
7.1%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5711% → 9%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
10.5%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 16Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
10.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
9.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for no gain to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-2
9.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 39 yds , KJ Hamler returns for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 37 KJ Hamler fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4293% → 94%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
6.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 2 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+27
6.5%
Trace McSorley run for 27 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
5.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for no gain to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
6.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
5.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
6.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:367% → 7%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
7.1%
Stevie Scott run for 11 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
7.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 9 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
8.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 4 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-16
7.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 16 yards to the Ind 28 INDIANA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 26
OWN 28
+7
6.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 7 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+9
6.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 9 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+1
7.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Nick Scott return for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2494% → 94%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
5.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
5.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+5
5.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 53 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 5 yds to the Ind 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 3:014% → 14%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
4.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 9 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
4.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for no gain to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-4
4.4%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+11
3.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 11 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
4.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 9 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
4.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+7
3.7%
Stevie Scott run for 7 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
3.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+10
4.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 10 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
4.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 15 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
5.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 21 Peyton Ramsey fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
4.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
4.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+21
13.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 21 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3816% → 9%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
15.7%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 20
OWN 32
-7
13.4%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 25Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 27
OWN 25
+14
9.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 14 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+12
9.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 12 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:41
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED)
-25.3
TD · Q3 4:01
Stevie Scott run for 3 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 10:25
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com