2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:06 · Haydon Whitehead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:04: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 19 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +3.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:39: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 18 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:16: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 7 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:53: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Ramsey intercepted ) — IU win probability +3.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:21: Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 11:47IU 4th & 15 at OSU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%77% to makePunt5.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:04IU 4th & 3 at OSU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%52% to convertField goal7.3%−0.158% to makePunt7.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:49IU 4th & 8 at IU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 13:40OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 42, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:01OSU 4th & 1 at IU 23, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.4%71% to convertField goal87.8%−0.670% to makePunt86.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 0:40IU 4th & 10 at OSU 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%77% to makePunt6.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 13:06IU 4th & 11 at IU 24, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q3 11:39OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 34, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.5%−1.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q3 7:37OSU 4th & 1 at IU 42, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%70% to convertField goal93.3%−1.630% to makePunt93.7%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:56IU 4th & 1 at OSU 11, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%71% to convertField goal5.5%−1.087% to makePunt2.4%−4.1average punt
- Q3 2:15IU 4th & 10 at OSU 38, down 9Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.8%30% to convertField goal9.6%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call9.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 0:38OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 2, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snapGo for it86.3%−3.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q3 0:17IU 4th & 10 at OSU 33, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call9.7%49% to makePunt8.6%−1.1average punt
- Q4 13:25OSU 4th & 1 at IU 47, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.3%−1.7average punt
- Q4 11:09IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, down 16Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:14IU 4th & 3 at IU 46, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:58OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:21OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:59IU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.4%97% to makeGo for two9.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:04IU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:39OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:16OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:09OSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:21OSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two96.0%45% to convert
- Q4 6:51OSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1FG10 plays · 56 yds · 2:534% → 4%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 16 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
96.4%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Majette, Mike for 9 yards to the OHIOST5, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference 15 yards to the OHIOST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 29
OPP 33
+14
96.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 14 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2FUMBLE11 plays · 41 yds · 2:3496% → 95%
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
95.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
95.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+1
95.4%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the Ind 38 Mike Weber fumbled, forced by Brandon Wilson, recovered by Ind Cam JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 33 yds · 2:365% → 6%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Austin Dorris for 8 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
95.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 7 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
94.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 4 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5794% → 95%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
94.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 23 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+13
94.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Luke Farrell for 13 yds to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+7
93.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 7 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+13
93.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 13 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 1:566% → 6%
OSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:1794% → 96%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
93.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+6
93.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
93.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 12 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
96.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 39 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:166% → 9%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 15 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
94.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+17
93.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 17 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
91.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 32 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8INT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1292% → 92%
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
92.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 22 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
92.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
92.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass intercepted Devon Matthews return for no gain to the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD7 plays · 70 yds · 1:169% → 14%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
91.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 12 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
90.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+10
91.0%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the OHIOST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
90.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 30 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
86.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 19 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2186% → 92%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
86.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 13 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
87.0%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 17 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
86.9%
Weber, Mike rush for 3 yards to the INDIANA5, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Knox, Demetrius) 10 yards to the INDIANA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
91.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 18 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11Uncategorized2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 7 yds Reese Taylor fumbled, forced by Tuf Borland, recovered by OhSt Jordan FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0492% → 94%
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
91.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
91.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 13 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 7 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13FG11 plays · 56 yds · 1:307% → 8%
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4693% → 95%
Q3 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
95.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 71 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:545% → 5%
OSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
IUDrive 18FUMBLE7 plays · 29 yds · 2:365% → 6%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
94.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 5 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
94.8%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY OHIOST roughing passer (Young, Chase) 15 yards to the INDIANA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
94.2%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Ramsey, Peyton, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Pryor, Isaiah) 15 yards to the OHIOST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.9%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Tuf Borland for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-4
94.2%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 49 Peyton Ramsey fumbled, forced by Tyreke Smith, recovered by OhSt Dre'Mont Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4396% → 95%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
95.7%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the Ind 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD8 plays · 58 yds · 2:386% → 10%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
94.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 38 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 1 yd to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
93.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 7 yds to the OhSt 3Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Ramsey intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21INT7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3992% → 91%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
91.5%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Austin Mack for 12 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
92.1%
Weber, Mike rush for 8 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Berry, Rashod) 10 yards to the OHIOST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-10
91.2%
Haskins, Dwayne rush for 10 yards to the OHIOST42, PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the OHIOST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 30
OWN 22
+10
90.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 10 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+9
90.8%
Dwayne Haskins pass intercepted Bryant Fitzgerald return for 9 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:2511% → 9%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
89.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2291% → 90%
Q3 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 4
-2
90.3%
Haskins, Dwayne pass complete to Victor, Binjimen for 12 yards to the OHIOST16, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Victor, Binjimen) 2 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 2
0
90.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for no gain to the OhSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1512% → 10%
OSUDrive 25TD11 plays · 67 yds · 2:3991% → 97%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
91.6%
Haskins, Dwayne pass incomplete, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference 15 yards to the INDIANA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+11
91.6%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 11 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:064% → 4%
OSUDrive 27TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0497% → 99%
Q4 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+5
96.9%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Mike Weber for 5 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
97.1%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.2%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 5 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+13
97.3%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 13 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 30 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 1:261% → 1%
OSUDrive 29Uncategorized7 plays · 33 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:21
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 17 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 4:39
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Parris Campbell for 18 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q3 4:53
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Ramsey intercepted )
-3.6