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MSU

Michigan State 35 at Indiana 21

IU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:17 · Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 8 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense−33.8Pregame prior−4.2Score differential−18.9Garbage-time factor−13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:47: Matt Coghlin run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:19: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 65 yds for a TD (Peyton Ramsey pass to Nick Westbrook for Two-Point Conversion) — IU win probability +9.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:28: Logan Justus 36 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +9.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:17: Jalen Nailor run for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 20 at IU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:10IU 4th & 3 at IU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:08MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35IU 4th & 9 at IU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:13MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00IU 4th & 3 at MSU 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:52MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 20, up 14
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:17IU 4th & 1 at MSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:37IU 4th & 1 at IU 30, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00IU 4th & 16 at IU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:40MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:19IU 4th & 20 at IU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:47MSU 4th & 3 at IU 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:47IU 4th & 16 at IU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:43IU 4th & 18 at MSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:17IU 4th & 3 at IU 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:19MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:28IU 4th & 3 at MSU 18, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−5.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:23MSU 4th & 1 at IU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:18IU 4th & 10 at IU 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:11MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:54IU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:19MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:47MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:19IU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:17MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
27.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 20 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
27.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
27.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
-5
27.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to White, Cody for 7 yards to the IND34 (Bryant, Khalil), PENALTY MSU ineligible downfield on pass (Stewart, D.) 5 yards to the IND46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
27.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 46
0
27.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
27.0%
Tyler Hunt punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
27.9%
Stevie Scott run for 5 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
27.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
27.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
27.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:5772% → 73%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
28.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
28.1%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Marcelino Ball for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+16
28.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
28.2%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
28.1%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+32
28.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 32 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
28.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
27.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4INT TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3628% → 27%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Reese Taylor run for no gain to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
28.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
28.6%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
28.6%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan, PENALTY MSU holding (Butler, Josh) 10 yards to the MSU41, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
28.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 12 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+69
26.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted for a TD Shakur Brown return for 69 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
25.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 5 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
25.7%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Fryfogle, Ty for 11 yards to the IND40, PENALTY IND holding (Bowen, Ja'merez) 10 yards to the IND19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
25.6%
Stevie Scott run for 7 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
25.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 46 yds , Cody White returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.3%
Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
24.0%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-19
24.1%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Nile Sykes for a loss of 19 yards to the MchSt 22 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
24.9%
Tyler Hunt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0725% → 25%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
25.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+13
24.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 13 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-1
25.5%
Stevie Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
25.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
23.7%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
23.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
23.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+19
24.2%
Tyler Hunt punt for 42 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for 19 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
25.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
25.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Reese Taylor for 13 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
25.4%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+7
25.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for 7 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
25.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
25.0%
Stevie Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
22.1%
INDIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
21.9%
Lewerke, Brian pass intercepted by Layne, Raheem at the IND20, Layne, Raheem return to the IND48, PENALTY IND pass interference (Layne, Raheem) 15 yards to the MSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
21.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ind 49 La'Darius Jefferson fumbled, forced by Cam Jones, recovered by Ind Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:1824% → 32%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
23.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
24.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
24.0%
Stevie Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
24.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
23.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 10 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
24.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-2
24.3%
Stevie Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+7
24.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
24.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 2 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
27.8%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+18
28.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 18 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
26.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-1
26.4%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-1
26.7%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
27.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5229% → 27%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
28.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
29.2%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for no gain to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
28.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
26.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:0474% → 84%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
25.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 16 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
24.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete, broken up by Devon MatthewsSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
24.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 12 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
23.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 16 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
22.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 19 yds to the Ind 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
23.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
16.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.0%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
18.8%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
18.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Raequan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+1
18.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds , Cody White returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 20 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
17.7%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
16.9%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-5
17.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Kevin Jarvis) to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-8
17.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Marcelino Ball for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 28 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt Matt Allen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
18.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
18.1%
Stevie Scott run for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
18.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-13
18.2%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Brandon Bouyer-Randle for a loss of 13 yards to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
17.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:4985% → 96%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
14.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
14.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
14.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
13.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the INDIANA 44 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (Marcelino Ball) to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
13.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 16 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
13.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
13.4%
Cody White pass complete to Brian Lewerke for 6 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-1
13.7%
Brandon Sowards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 6Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
3.8%
Matt Coghlin run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.3%
Stevie Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
5.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 8 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
5.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 5 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
5.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
5.8%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Andrew Dowell for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 14
OWN 43
-2
5.4%
Stevie Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
5.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+13
5.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds , Cody White returns for 13 yds to the INDIANA 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Shakur Brown) to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
2.7%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-12
2.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Connor Heyward) to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+4
2.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Khalil Bryant return for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22FG
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:565% → 8%
Q3 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Austin Dorris for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
6.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
5.5%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Philyor, Whop for 3 yards to the MSU0, clock 14:55, PENALTY IND pass interference (Hale, Donavan) 15 yards to the MSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
4.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop Philyor, broken up by Josh ButlerSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
7.8%
Logan Justus 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.0%
Jalen Nailor run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
5.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
4.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
4.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+10
4.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 10 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.7%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-1
4.7%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 42Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
4.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Cam Jones return for no gain to the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 1:584% → 14%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
4.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
4.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
4.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+8
4.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 8 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
4.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 1 yd to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
13.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 65 yds for a TD (Peyton Ramsey pass to Nick Westbrook for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
13.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 0
0
11.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen (Brown, Andre), PENALTY IND pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MSU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
12.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
12.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Jamar JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
13.5%
Tyler Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:2811% → 24%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
12.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
12.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 10 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
13.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
14.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 9 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
14.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Naquan Jones) to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
16.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
16.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
14.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
23.8%
Logan Justus 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
3.2%
Jalen Nailor run for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
3.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 5 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
3.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Antjuan Simmons return for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29FUMBLE
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:1597% → 98%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
2.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
2.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
2.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-6
2.5%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 41 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Bryant Fitzgerald, recovered by Ind Reakwon JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 41 Peyton Ramsey fumbled, forced by Brandon Bouyer-Randle, recovered by Ind Simon StepaniakSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete, broken up by Raequan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+8
1.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 8 yds to the Ind 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-1
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:17
Jalen Nailor run for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q3 4:47
Matt Coghlin run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-9.9
FG · Q4 3:28
Logan Justus 36 yd FG GOOD
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com